N9NWO
October 25th 04, 03:57 AM
Over the last few election cycles, I have made predictions on how the
elections that have come out correctly. So far I have been right on the
last six.
In Jan 1999, it was clear that Gore and Bush would be their parties
candidates. By March it was clear that the race would be very, very close. I
thought that it would not be decided until election night. I sort of missed
how long it would take. But I was right on it being very close with a very
divided population.
In 2002 everyone thought I was nuts because I predicted that the republicans
would gain 10 seats in the House and 2 to 4 in the Senate. But I had the
right feeling on how people were thinking.
This year I am seeing Bush winning by 53 to 58%, shock-shock! And a GOP gain
of 10 to 15 seats in the House plus 4 to 6 in the Senate. I also expect a
huge turnout.
If you listen to the talk shows across the nation, the conservatives and
libertarians have the base worked up about democrats doing voter fraud. I
expect republicans to turn out in force, nearing 100%.
Democrats have a much larger problem. Gay marriage has alienated many
conservative blacks (ie Missionary Baptists). And Jewish voters are not
happy with the progressives' support for the Arabs. Plus Kerry is a lot like
Dole in 1996, boring US Senator who is a War hero. No excitement in the
ranks. And Bush hatred, like Clinton hatred, is not enough.
One race to look at is the Indiana 7th District. Even though Andy Horning,
who is a libertarian but is running as a republican (like Ron Paul of
Texas), has only $20,000, his opponent (Julia Carson) spends very little
outside of having a big party for all her poll workers (she has white vans
that take "voters" from poll to poll to increase her numbers). Andy's
campaign manager used to run Julia's. He set up her organization. Andy is
making great in roads into the Black community yet bringing along the white
conservatives in the Suburbs. Here is Andy's web page
http://www.andy4indy.com
Also look at the Campaign & Elections web site. Their odds maker has over a
98% correct prediction record (they do adjust so that they are on target)
http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/index.cfm?navid=12
You may argue with me. But so far I have been right.
elections that have come out correctly. So far I have been right on the
last six.
In Jan 1999, it was clear that Gore and Bush would be their parties
candidates. By March it was clear that the race would be very, very close. I
thought that it would not be decided until election night. I sort of missed
how long it would take. But I was right on it being very close with a very
divided population.
In 2002 everyone thought I was nuts because I predicted that the republicans
would gain 10 seats in the House and 2 to 4 in the Senate. But I had the
right feeling on how people were thinking.
This year I am seeing Bush winning by 53 to 58%, shock-shock! And a GOP gain
of 10 to 15 seats in the House plus 4 to 6 in the Senate. I also expect a
huge turnout.
If you listen to the talk shows across the nation, the conservatives and
libertarians have the base worked up about democrats doing voter fraud. I
expect republicans to turn out in force, nearing 100%.
Democrats have a much larger problem. Gay marriage has alienated many
conservative blacks (ie Missionary Baptists). And Jewish voters are not
happy with the progressives' support for the Arabs. Plus Kerry is a lot like
Dole in 1996, boring US Senator who is a War hero. No excitement in the
ranks. And Bush hatred, like Clinton hatred, is not enough.
One race to look at is the Indiana 7th District. Even though Andy Horning,
who is a libertarian but is running as a republican (like Ron Paul of
Texas), has only $20,000, his opponent (Julia Carson) spends very little
outside of having a big party for all her poll workers (she has white vans
that take "voters" from poll to poll to increase her numbers). Andy's
campaign manager used to run Julia's. He set up her organization. Andy is
making great in roads into the Black community yet bringing along the white
conservatives in the Suburbs. Here is Andy's web page
http://www.andy4indy.com
Also look at the Campaign & Elections web site. Their odds maker has over a
98% correct prediction record (they do adjust so that they are on target)
http://www.campaignline.com/oddsmaker/index.cfm?navid=12
You may argue with me. But so far I have been right.