Past Results are no Guarantee of Future Performance

[BobW]

What with it being mid-winter in the northern hemisphere, wouldn't it be
wonderful if the 2012 U.S. soaring-activity-year got off to a nice, safe
start? Especially with the SSA Convention coming up and in light of the
statistically dismal last two years...

Not gonna happen, folks. Per today's FAA preliminary accident/incident data,
we didn't make it through January without an injury-producing accident. (Sigh.)

Cut-n-paste follows...
- - - - - -
IDENTIFICATION
Regis#: 17873 Make/Model: SGS Description: SCHWEIZER 2-33A GLIDER
Date: 01/28/2012 Time: 1715

Event Type: Accident Highest Injury: Minor Mid Air: N Missing: N
Damage: Substantial

LOCATION
City: PEORIA State: AZ Country: US

DESCRIPTION
AIRCRAFT MADE A FORCED LANDING IN THE DESERT.

INJURY DATA Total Fatal: 0
# Crew: 1 Fat: 0 Ser: 0 Min: 1 Unk:
# Pass: 1 Fat: 0 Ser: 0 Min: 1 Unk:
# Grnd: Fat: 0 Ser: 0 Min: 0 Unk:


OTHER DATA
Activity: Unknown Phase: Landing Operation: OTHER
- - - - - -
End of cut-n-paste...

For any U.S. readers inclined to blow this crunch off as "would never happen
to me" (regardless of rationale), the February, 2012, issue of "Soaring" mag
has additional food for thought in Bob Thompson's (Most Excellent) article
entitled "Life Altering Decisions - Another View".

Bob W.

[Brad[_2_]]

On Jan 30, 10:12*am, BobW > wrote:
> What with it being mid-winter in the northern hemisphere, wouldn't it be
> wonderful if the 2012 U.S. soaring-activity-year got off to a nice, safe
> start? Especially with the SSA Convention coming up and in light of the
> statistically dismal last two years...
>
> Not gonna happen, folks. Per today's FAA preliminary accident/incident data,
> we didn't make it through January without an injury-producing accident. (Sigh.)
>
> Cut-n-paste follows...
> - - - - - -
> IDENTIFICATION
> * *Regis#: 17873 * * * *Make/Model: SGS * * * Description: SCHWEIZER 2-33A GLIDER
> * *Date: 01/28/2012 * * Time: 1715
>
> * *Event Type: Accident * Highest Injury: Minor * * Mid Air: N * *Missing: N
> * *Damage: Substantial
>
> LOCATION
> * *City: PEORIA * State: AZ * Country: US
>
> DESCRIPTION
> * *AIRCRAFT MADE A FORCED LANDING IN THE DESERT.
>
> INJURY DATA * * *Total Fatal: * 0
> * * * * * * * * * # Crew: * 1 * * Fat: * 0 * * Ser: * 0 * * Min: * 1 * * Unk:
> * * * * * * * * * # Pass: * 1 * * Fat: * 0 * * Ser: * 0 * * Min: * 1 * * Unk:
> * * * * * * * * * # Grnd: * * * * Fat: * 0 * * Ser: * 0 * * Min: * 0 * * Unk:
>
> OTHER DATA
> * *Activity: Unknown * * *Phase: Landing * * *Operation: OTHER
> - - - - - -
> End of cut-n-paste...
>
> For any U.S. readers inclined to blow this crunch off as "would never happen
> to me" (regardless of rationale), the February, 2012, issue of "Soaring" mag
> has additional food for thought in Bob Thompson's (Most Excellent) article
> entitled "Life Altering Decisions - Another View".
>
> Bob W.

webinar anyone.....?

Brad

[Mike the Strike]

On Jan 30, 11:21*am, Brad > wrote:
> On Jan 30, 10:12*am, BobW > wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > What with it being mid-winter in the northern hemisphere, wouldn't it be
> > wonderful if the 2012 U.S. soaring-activity-year got off to a nice, safe
> > start? Especially with the SSA Convention coming up and in light of the
> > statistically dismal last two years...
>
> > Not gonna happen, folks. Per today's FAA preliminary accident/incident data,
> > we didn't make it through January without an injury-producing accident. (Sigh.)
>
> > Cut-n-paste follows...
> > - - - - - -
> > IDENTIFICATION
> > * *Regis#: 17873 * * * *Make/Model: SGS * * * Description: SCHWEIZER 2-33A GLIDER
> > * *Date: 01/28/2012 * * Time: 1715
>
> > * *Event Type: Accident * Highest Injury: Minor * * Mid Air: N * *Missing: N
> > * *Damage: Substantial
>
> > LOCATION
> > * *City: PEORIA * State: AZ * Country: US
>
> > DESCRIPTION
> > * *AIRCRAFT MADE A FORCED LANDING IN THE DESERT.
>
> > INJURY DATA * * *Total Fatal: * 0
> > * * * * * * * * * # Crew: * 1 * * Fat: * 0 * * Ser: * 0 * * Min: * 1 * * Unk:
> > * * * * * * * * * # Pass: * 1 * * Fat: * 0 * * Ser: * 0 * * Min: * 1 * * Unk:
> > * * * * * * * * * # Grnd: * * * * Fat: * 0 * * Ser: * 0 * * Min: * 0 * * Unk:
>
> > OTHER DATA
> > * *Activity: Unknown * * *Phase: Landing * * *Operation: OTHER
> > - - - - - -
> > End of cut-n-paste...
>
> > For any U.S. readers inclined to blow this crunch off as "would never happen
> > to me" (regardless of rationale), the February, 2012, issue of "Soaring" mag
> > has additional food for thought in Bob Thompson's (Most Excellent) article
> > entitled "Life Altering Decisions - Another View".
>
> > Bob W.
>
> webinar anyone.....?
>
> Brad

It looks like one of the gliders from a fairly busy commercial ride
operation (not too far from me). There was no significant weather,
but it was late in the day with a low sun and there was definitely no
lift!

If you can't make it back to this airfield, there are no nice places
nearby to land in the desert. Not the first 2-33 to bite the dust
there, either.

Mike

[Andy[_1_]]

On Jan 30, 11:12*am, BobW > wrote:
> What with it being mid-winter in the northern hemisphere, wouldn't it be
> wonderful if the 2012 U.S. soaring-activity-year got off to a nice, safe
> start?

Not sure what winter has to do with it though. Unlike other states
wInter is no obstacle to flying here and the winter can often bring in
more flight activity to commercial operators than the summer. That
(last) weekend here in Arizona was absolutely perfect for training and
intro flights. Clear sky, temperature in mid 70's, and light winds.

Andy

[Mike the Strike]

On Jan 30, 1:14*pm, Andy > wrote:
> On Jan 30, 11:12*am, BobW > wrote:
>
> > What with it being mid-winter in the northern hemisphere, wouldn't it be
> > wonderful if the 2012 U.S. soaring-activity-year got off to a nice, safe
> > start?
>
> Not sure what winter has to do with it though. *Unlike other states
> wInter is no obstacle to flying here and the winter can often bring in
> more flight activity to commercial operators than the summer. *That
> (last) weekend here in Arizona was absolutely perfect for training and
> intro flights. Clear sky, temperature in mid 70's, and light winds.
>
> Andy

Video posted on local TV station web site shows an apparently almost
undamaged 2-33 that landed in a fairly clear desert area but tangled
with some light scrub brush. It was describes as "southwest' of the
field, which would be consistent with where you would be shortly after
take-off to the west. My guess would be rope break. Not a big deal.

Mike

[BobW]

On 1/30/2012 2:18 PM, Mike the Strike wrote:
> On Jan 30, 1:14 pm, > wrote:
>> On Jan 30, 11:12 am, > wrote:
>>
>>> What with it being mid-winter in the northern hemisphere, wouldn't it be
>>> wonderful if the 2012 U.S. soaring-activity-year got off to a nice, safe
>>> start?
>>
>> Not sure what winter has to do with it though. Unlike other states
>> wInter is no obstacle to flying here and the winter can often bring in
>> more flight activity to commercial operators than the summer. That
>> (last) weekend here in Arizona was absolutely perfect for training and
>> intro flights. Clear sky, temperature in mid 70's, and light winds.
>>
>> Andy
"Roger all the above," and, "Fully understood." But since the question was (at
least inferentially) asked, what winter has to do with it is its statistical
influence on (i.e. effect of decreasing) ALL U.S. soaring ops.

>
> Video posted on local TV station web site shows an apparently almost
> undamaged 2-33 that landed in a fairly clear desert area but tangled
> with some light scrub brush. It was describes as "southwest' of the
> field, which would be consistent with where you would be shortly after
> take-off to the west. My guess would be rope break. Not a big deal.
>
> Mike

Acknowledging FAA preliminary data tends to be rife with "quick-n-dirty"
inaccuracies, "minor" injuries to two people and "substantial" damage to a
sailplane arguably may not be viewed in the "[n]ot a big deal" light by
everyone...say, relatives of those injured, insurance companies, etc.

It would be illuminative to know more of the details of this
crunch...intentional or unintentional release, flight-training or ride, other
influencing circumstances, etc. If the U.S. soaring community can maintain
this as 2012's *only* accident, then I'll more willingly buy into "not a big
deal" as an overall yearly assessment...as distinct from an assessment of this
particular crunch. Accidents are (or should) *always* be considered big deals
by those unfortunate enough to endure them. IMHO.

Bob W.

[[email protected]]

On Jan 30, 1:12*pm, BobW > wrote:
> What with it being mid-winter in the northern hemisphere, wouldn't it be
> wonderful if the 2012 U.S. soaring-activity-year got off to a nice, safe
> start? Especially with the SSA Convention coming up and in light of the
> statistically dismal last two years...
>
> Not gonna happen, folks. Per today's FAA preliminary accident/incident data,
> we didn't make it through January without an injury-producing accident. (Sigh.)
>
> Cut-n-paste follows...
> - - - - - -
> IDENTIFICATION
> * *Regis#: 17873 * * * *Make/Model: SGS * * * Description: SCHWEIZER 2-33A GLIDER
> * *Date: 01/28/2012 * * Time: 1715
>
> * *Event Type: Accident * Highest Injury: Minor * * Mid Air: N * *Missing: N
> * *Damage: Substantial
>
> LOCATION
> * *City: PEORIA * State: AZ * Country: US
>
> DESCRIPTION
> * *AIRCRAFT MADE A FORCED LANDING IN THE DESERT.
>
> INJURY DATA * * *Total Fatal: * 0
> * * * * * * * * * # Crew: * 1 * * Fat: * 0 * * Ser: * 0 * * Min: * 1 * * Unk:
> * * * * * * * * * # Pass: * 1 * * Fat: * 0 * * Ser: * 0 * * Min: * 1 * * Unk:
> * * * * * * * * * # Grnd: * * * * Fat: * 0 * * Ser: * 0 * * Min: * 0 * * Unk:
>
> OTHER DATA
> * *Activity: Unknown * * *Phase: Landing * * *Operation: OTHER
> - - - - - -
> End of cut-n-paste...
>
> For any U.S. readers inclined to blow this crunch off as "would never happen
> to me" (regardless of rationale), the February, 2012, issue of "Soaring" mag
> has additional food for thought in Bob Thompson's (Most Excellent) article
> entitled "Life Altering Decisions - Another View".
>
> Bob W.

Need to at least wait till initial NTSB report.
"Substantial" damage could easily be nothing but a dinged wing tip
that makes the glider not flyable.
Minor injury could be a scratch.
World isn't crashing down yet.
UH

[kirk.stant]

On Jan 31, 7:59*am, wrote:

> Need to at least wait till initial NTSB report.
> "Substantial" damage could easily be nothing but a dinged wing tip
> that makes the glider not flyable.
> Minor injury could be a scratch.
> World isn't crashing down yet.
> UH-

I was out at the airport where this happened this Saturday (flew 1.5
in nice winter thermals, 2.5knots average up to almost 9000').

Got a good look at the 2-33 in question.

Pretty much a write-off: fuselage badly twisted, one wing badly bent,
other had a tip/aileron ding but could probably be fixed. Horizontal/
elevator bent. Fin and rudder looked OK! Probably only good for
parts. Nice cushions, BTW.

Talked to local pilots. Not a rope break. Possibly a case of misread
altimeter resulting in low release and failure to get back to the
field (altimeter showed approximate field elevation, so it wasn't set
to QFE...).

Possible that the pilot passed up several chances to land on the
airport or on good parts of the desert, while stretching his glide
back to the runway he wanted to get to. Misjudged wind, stalled into
ground hard, groundloop.
(this is conjecture only)

Let's hope the commercial operator doesn't get sued out of business.

At the rate we are destroying 2-33s, they are going to be rare birds
pretty soon!

Kirk
66

[Mike the Strike]

On Feb 6, 4:15*pm, "kirk.stant" > wrote:
> On Jan 31, 7:59*am, wrote:
>
> > Need to at least wait till initial NTSB report.
> > "Substantial" damage could easily be nothing but a dinged wing tip
> > that makes the glider not flyable.
> > Minor injury could be a scratch.
> > World isn't crashing down yet.
> > UH-
>
> I was out at the airport where this happened this Saturday (flew 1.5
> in nice winter thermals, 2.5knots average up to almost 9000').
>
> Got a good look at the 2-33 in question.
>
> Pretty much a write-off: fuselage badly twisted, one wing badly bent,
> other had a tip/aileron ding but could probably be fixed. *Horizontal/
> elevator bent. *Fin and rudder looked OK! *Probably only good for
> parts. *Nice cushions, BTW.
>
> Talked to local pilots. *Not a rope break. *Possibly a case of misread
> altimeter resulting in low release and failure to get back to the
> field (altimeter showed approximate field elevation, so it wasn't set
> to QFE...).
>
> Possible that the pilot passed up several chances to land on the
> airport or on good parts of the desert, while stretching his glide
> back to the runway he wanted to get to. *Misjudged wind, stalled into
> ground hard, groundloop.
> (this is conjecture only)
>
> Let's hope the commercial operator doesn't get sued out of business.
>
> At the rate we are destroying 2-33s, they are going to be rare birds
> pretty soon!
>
> Kirk
> 66

A little birdie told me that the pilot misjudged his approach,
possibly from stronger than expected winds, and stalled in from about
twenty feet. Passenger taken to hospital with back pain. Awaiting
full NTSB
report.

Mike