Light Twins. How soft???

[Montblack]

I keep hearing "the market for Light Twins is soft."

Anyone have any tales to tell?

Are used Light Twins not selling these days, or are they selling for
what some would consider "bargain" prices, or both?

Did the economy's shake-up knock quite a few people out of the Twin
tree - people who were just barely holding on, "before" the shake-up?

Basically, are there a glut of Light Twins on the market, now, because
people overbought (or overspent) during the previous (guessing) 5 or 6
years? First thing to go when things get tight is the Twin?

Are quite a few people trading (down) all at once?

Or is something else happening? Are there *other* market dynamics at
work here?

Again, anyone have any tales to tell?


(Wonder what the odds are of this thread hitting 300 posts? <g>)

--
Montblack

[Paul Tomblin]

In a previous article, "Montblack" > said:
>Are used Light Twins not selling these days, or are they selling for
>what some would consider "bargain" prices, or both?

Or has it become damn near impossible to find an insurance company that
will insure you in a light twin unless you have slightly more flying
experience than Bob Hoover?


--
Paul Tomblin > http://xcski.com/blogs/pt/
Mentally update my CV, paying special attention to the bits
about how to say "Was Fired For Being A Prat" in a positive light.
-- Eric the Read's bad day

[Craig]

(Paul Tomblin) wrote in message >...
> In a previous article, "Montblack" > said:
> >Are used Light Twins not selling these days, or are they selling for
> >what some would consider "bargain" prices, or both?
>
> Or has it become damn near impossible to find an insurance company that
> will insure you in a light twin unless you have slightly more flying
> experience than Bob Hoover?

IF the FAA's proposed AD on Cessna 300/400 series wings comes out as
it was proposed the last time I looked, it will definately drive those
aircraft sales into the pits. The proposed fix isn't too expensive
parts wise, but labor will be a killer. Their estimate for labor costs
is over $17,000, and I think that was per wing....

Craig C.

[Nathan Young]

(Craig) wrote in message >...
> (Paul Tomblin) wrote in message >...
> > In a previous article, "Montblack" > said:
> > >Are used Light Twins not selling these days, or are they selling for
> > >what some would consider "bargain" prices, or both?
> >
> > Or has it become damn near impossible to find an insurance company that
> > will insure you in a light twin unless you have slightly more flying
> > experience than Bob Hoover?
>
> IF the FAA's proposed AD on Cessna 300/400 series wings comes out as
> it was proposed the last time I looked, it will definately drive those
> aircraft sales into the pits. The proposed fix isn't too expensive
> parts wise, but labor will be a killer. Their estimate for labor costs
> is over $17,000, and I think that was per wing....

Is it the entire 3/400 series? Or just certain ones? Is their an
NPRM or similar we can reference?

-Nathan

[Ben Smith]

> Is it the entire 3/400 series? Or just certain ones? Is their an
> NPRM or similar we can reference?

This site has a little info:
http://www.cessnatwinssparcorp.org/

--
Ben
C-172 - N13258 @ 87Y

[Michael]

"Montblack" > wrote
> I keep hearing "the market for Light Twins is soft."

Soft really isn't the right word. Nonexistent is more like it.

> Are used Light Twins not selling these days, or are they selling for
> what some would consider "bargain" prices, or both?

The ones that are selling are going for bargain prices. Mostly
they're simply not selling, since most owners are simply not willing
to take a beating. Those who have high quality light twins and can
afford to keep them are mostly just keeping them.

> Did the economy's shake-up knock quite a few people out of the Twin
> tree - people who were just barely holding on, "before" the shake-up?

Yes, some of that is going on. Those are the twins that are selling
for bargain prices. They're no bargain. The people who were just
barely holding on were the same ones skimping on maintenance. With
money tight and a plan to sell, you can be certain that anything that
could possibly be deferred was deferred, regarless of long-term
consequences. The economy has been in the crapper for over two years
now. The owners who are willing to sell at a bargain price are the
same ones who have been getting pencilwhip annuals for the last two
years or more.

You might also manage to get a bargain if someone is trading up - but
right now, very few light twin owners are trading up. In fact, most
are looking to trade down. It doesn't help that a huge fraction of
light twin owners are airline captains, and they're more worried about
their financial future than most.

Then there are the trainers. With flight training (especially foreign
student training) in the crapper since 9/11, flight schools aren't
buying. Not really a factor when you're looking at the 250+ hp/side
class of twin, but a huge deal in the under-200 hp/side market.

Michael

[Dennis O'Connor]

Well, depends... And, Bob Hoover I ain't... I just sent the payment for
another year's renewal on my Apache... One million liability plus the value
of the hull... $2990.00 ymmv
Denny
"Paul Tomblin" > wrote in message
...
> In a previous article, "Montblack"
> said:
> Or has it become damn near impossible to find an insurance company that
> will insure you in a light twin unless you have slightly more flying
> experience than Bob Hoover?
> Mentally update my CV, paying special attention to the bits
> about how to say "Was Fired For Being A Prat" in a positive light.
> -- Eric the Read's bad day

[Paul Tomblin]

In a previous article, "Dennis O'Connor" > said:
>Well, depends... And, Bob Hoover I ain't... I just sent the payment for
>another year's renewal on my Apache... One million liability plus the value
>of the hull... $2990.00 ymmv

Is this a plane you've owned for a while, or one that you've bought
recently? I've heard it's absolutely impossible to get insurance for
buying a twin in a large partnership or flying club, but if they already
had a twin it's possible to renew it (just barely). I've also heard it's
getting much much harder for single owners to get insurance for a twin
unless they owned it a few years ago.


--
Paul Tomblin > http://xcski.com/blogs/pt/
You'll get access to my computer room right after you pry the Halon test
key out of my cold, lifeless hands.
-- Simon Travaglia

[Kyler Laird]

"Dennis O'Connor" > writes:

>Well, depends... And, Bob Hoover I ain't... I just sent the payment for
>another year's renewal on my Apache... One million liability plus the value
>of the hull... $2990.00 ymmv

Maybe you should trade up to an Aztec and save some money. (Ha ha!)
http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&th=805381dd000a91ed&seekm=3bk881-r3p.ln1%40jowls.lairds.org&frame=off

I just realized that I have the policy details now. I'll post them
in that thread.

--kyler

[Dennis O'Connor]

I bought Fat Albert in '99... I have been a plane owner for 40 years, but
this is the first twin I've owned..
denny

"Paul Tomblin" > wrote in message
...
> In a previous article, "Dennis O'Connor" > said:
> >Well, depends... And, Bob Hoover I ain't... I just sent the payment for
> >another year's renewal on my Apache... One million liability plus the
value
> >of the hull... $2990.00 ymmv
>
> Is this a plane you've owned for a while, or one that you've bought
> recently? I've heard it's absolutely impossible to get insurance for
> buying a twin in a large partnership or flying club, but if they already
> had a twin it's possible to renew it (just barely). I've also heard it's
> getting much much harder for single owners to get insurance for a twin
> unless they owned it a few years ago.
>
>
> --
> Paul Tomblin > http://xcski.com/blogs/pt/
> You'll get access to my computer room right after you pry the Halon test
> key out of my cold, lifeless hands.
> -- Simon Travaglia

[Jay Honeck]

> Or has it become damn near impossible to find an insurance company that
> will insure you in a light twin unless you have slightly more flying
> experience than Bob Hoover?

It's not just airplane insurance. The insurance industry in America is in
crisis.

Insurance for the hotel just DOUBLED -- and no one else will even quote us.

And, no, we haven't made a claim.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

[Mike Rapoport]

If the stock market continues to perform well, premiums should come down.
Since insurance companies collect premiums now and plan to pay claims in the
future, the rate of return on the invested premiums is a critical part of
the calculation of how much those premius should be in the first place.

Mike
MU-2


"Jay Honeck" > wrote in message
news:zOJwb.299069$HS4.2688344@attbi_s01...
> > Or has it become damn near impossible to find an insurance company that
> > will insure you in a light twin unless you have slightly more flying
> > experience than Bob Hoover?
>
> It's not just airplane insurance. The insurance industry in America is in
> crisis.
>
> Insurance for the hotel just DOUBLED -- and no one else will even quote
us.
>
> And, no, we haven't made a claim.
> --
> Jay Honeck
> Iowa City, IA
> Pathfinder N56993
> www.AlexisParkInn.com
> "Your Aviation Destination"
>
>

[Michael]

(Paul Tomblin) wrote
> Is this a plane you've owned for a while, or one that you've bought
> recently?

I'm not Dennis, but I've just renewed my insurance for the third time
and I paid $2500 for a mil of liability and $85K of hull. I've also
seen quotes of over $7000 for the same coverage on the same plane.
The buyer had no multi rating, no instrument rating, and less than 250
TT.

> I've heard it's absolutely impossible to get insurance for
> buying a twin in a large partnership or flying club, but if they already
> had a twin it's possible to renew it (just barely).

By large partnership, you probably mean more than 5 people. Most
insurers treat you as a club at that point.

In any case, you've heard incorrectly. An established club with a
long term favorable claims history that doesn't own a twin CAN get
insurance on one, but it costs big bucks. In general, rental
insurance on a twin costs big bucks. The reason is simple - someone
who doesn't fly a twin a lot is a hazard in one. My insurer won't
even quote you if you don't have 80 hours twin time in the past year.

> I've also heard it's
> getting much much harder for single owners to get insurance for a twin
> unless they owned it a few years ago.

Once again, not true. You can get insurance, but if you're not
qualified you can expect to pay through the nose. If you're
multi/instrument rated and current, it's no big deal.

Michael

[Tom S.]

"Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
link.net...
> If the stock market continues to perform well, premiums should come down.
> Since insurance companies collect premiums now and plan to pay claims in
the
> future, the rate of return on the invested premiums is a critical part of
> the calculation of how much those premius should be in the first place.
>
> Mike
> MU-2
>
When policy holders are held liable for occurrences beyond their control and
damages that are hideous, there's only one way for the insurance companies
to make it up.

See my other post about our totally nutbar tort system.

[Mike Rapoport]

True, but that is not going to change anytime soon. I was interested to
read that most of the profit from the Comstock silver strike in the 1860's
was consumed in litigation over who owned the claims. Americans willingness
to use the courts to secure "fair" settlements goes back a long way.

Mike
MU-2


"Tom S." > wrote in message
...
>
> "Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
> link.net...
> > If the stock market continues to perform well, premiums should come
down.
> > Since insurance companies collect premiums now and plan to pay claims in
> the
> > future, the rate of return on the invested premiums is a critical part
of
> > the calculation of how much those premius should be in the first place.
> >
> > Mike
> > MU-2
> >
> When policy holders are held liable for occurrences beyond their control
and
> damages that are hideous, there's only one way for the insurance companies
> to make it up.
>
> See my other post about our totally nutbar tort system.
>
>

[Tom S.]

"Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
link.net...
> True, but that is not going to change anytime soon. I was interested to
> read that most of the profit from the Comstock silver strike in the 1860's
> was consumed in litigation over who owned the claims. Americans
willingness
> to use the courts to secure "fair" settlements goes back a long way.

Read the story of Commodore Vanderbilt and how his competitors tried to keep
him out of the transportatio industry. Hell, the very first case the US
Supreme Court ever heard was a ferry operator trying to break a state
sanctioned monopoly issued by the state of Massachuettes.

[R. Hubbell]

On Tue, 25 Nov 2003 14:37:19 GMT
"Jay Honeck" > wrote:

> > Or has it become damn near impossible to find an insurance company that
> > will insure you in a light twin unless you have slightly more flying
> > experience than Bob Hoover?
>
> It's not just airplane insurance. The insurance industry in America is in
> crisis.

You can say that again, here's one reason why:

"... a settlement in Texas over unfair charges for overdue
video rentals, trial lawyers received $9.25 million in fees
and expenses, while customers received two free movie
rentals and coupons for $1 off."

That's not a joke. That money doesn't materialize out of nowhere.

Trial lawyers and a jury of "peers" are to blame. It might even be that
the juries are to blame as the jury selection process is absurd, at best.

Just pick 12 people and be odne with it.

>
> Insurance for the hotel just DOUBLED -- and no one else will even quote us.
>
> And, no, we haven't made a claim.
> --
> Jay Honeck
> Iowa City, IA
> Pathfinder N56993
> www.AlexisParkInn.com
> "Your Aviation Destination"
>
>

[Dylan Smith]

In article . net>, Mike
Rapoport wrote:
> True, but that is not going to change anytime soon. I was interested to
> read that most of the profit from the Comstock silver strike in the 1860's
> was consumed in litigation over who owned the claims. Americans willingness
> to use the courts to secure "fair" settlements goes back a long way.

It sounds like the winner of that won the battle, but lost the war.
Just goes on to demonstrate the only real winners tend to be attorneys.

--
Dylan Smith, Castletown, Isle of Man
Flying: http://www.dylansmith.net
Frontier Elite Universe: http://www.alioth.net
"Maintain thine airspeed, lest the ground come up and smite thee"

[Tom S.]

"Dylan Smith" > wrote in message
...
> In article . net>, Mike
> Rapoport wrote:
> > True, but that is not going to change anytime soon. I was interested to
> > read that most of the profit from the Comstock silver strike in the
1860's
> > was consumed in litigation over who owned the claims. Americans
willingness
> > to use the courts to secure "fair" settlements goes back a long way.
>
> It sounds like the winner of that won the battle, but lost the war.
> Just goes on to demonstrate the only real winners tend to be attorneys.

And politicians/bureaucrats.

[JerryK]

The FAA won't stop at twin Cessnas. Look for the aging aircraft program to
hit a plane near you soon.


"Nathan Young" > wrote in message
om...
> (Craig) wrote in message
>...
> > (Paul Tomblin) wrote in message
>...
> > > In a previous article, "Montblack"
> said:
> > > >Are used Light Twins not selling these days, or are they selling for
> > > >what some would consider "bargain" prices, or both?
> > >
> > > Or has it become damn near impossible to find an insurance company
that
> > > will insure you in a light twin unless you have slightly more flying
> > > experience than Bob Hoover?
> >
> > IF the FAA's proposed AD on Cessna 300/400 series wings comes out as
> > it was proposed the last time I looked, it will definately drive those
> > aircraft sales into the pits. The proposed fix isn't too expensive
> > parts wise, but labor will be a killer. Their estimate for labor costs
> > is over $17,000, and I think that was per wing....
>
> Is it the entire 3/400 series? Or just certain ones? Is their an
> NPRM or similar we can reference?
>
> -Nathan