Tows Downturn

[Steve Freeman]

Our club noticed a significant drop in the number of tows in 2011. It was a bit over 25% less than the average of the previous three years with no corresponding decrease in the number of members. The reduction was especially apparent in the 1K tows. I am curious if other clubs (100+ members) noticed the same drop or if it is local to our club. Please let me know how your data compares and the number of members you have. Thanks

[noel.wade]

On May 29, 12:50*pm, Steve Freeman > wrote:
> Our club noticed a significant drop in the number of tows in 2011. It was a bit over 25% less than the average of the previous three years with no corresponding decrease in the number of members. The reduction was especially apparent in the 1K tows. I am curious if other clubs (100+ members) noticed the same drop or if it is local to our club. Please let me know how your data compares and the number of members you have. Thanks

Steve -

Our club (near Seattle, WA) peaked in 2009 and has declined about 10%
each year in both 2010 and 2011. For us, its pretty clear that what
happened was we had a surge of members in 2008 and 2009, but far too
many of them were not progressing as students and got frustrated and
dropped out. So member-retention has been a major factor in our
finances & tow numbers (especially as more and more of our local
pilots either age-out or become nomadic retirees).

On a related note (although a bit off-topic from your main question):
In our club, we have volunteer instructors that rotate weekend duties
and essentially students can show up on any day to fly with whatever
CFIG is on-duty; so you can imagine how messy our training process
is. In response, I'm working on my CFIG to help be a part of the
solution ( - I should get the written tests done just after I fly in
the Std Class Nationals). Like Scott Manley, I expect to include a
lot of simulator training with my students to try to help them
practice more often and get more out of their real flights. I'm also
going to refuse to participate in our club's rotating instructional
duties - I don't believe in the value of random stick-and-rudder
sessions with no pre-flight or post-flight briefing, or continuity of
instruction. Instead I'll take on ~2 students at a time and focus on
*making pilots* out of them, before taking on any more.

--Noel

[aerodyne]

I have seen 30% drop in tows the last three years, 50% in 6 years.
Some of it may be folks now come out when the weather is good and stay
up longer thanks to Dr Jack and other forecasting tools, but the drop
in active pilots is the main factor IMO

aerodyne

[Marc]

On May 29, 1:39*pm, aerodyne > wrote:
> I have seen 30% drop in tows the last three years, 50% in 6 years.
> Some of it may be folks now come out when the weather is good and stay
> up longer thanks to Dr Jack and other forecasting tools, but the drop
> in active pilots is the main factor IMO

I've noticed the same thing, once people became convinced of the
accuracy of BLIPMAPs and the like, most started showing up at our
local soaring sites only on the really "good" days, then eventually
some of those stopped showing up at all. A truly odd side-effect of
improved technology...

Marc

[Bill D]

On May 29, 4:21*pm, Marc > wrote:
> On May 29, 1:39*pm, aerodyne > wrote:
>
> > I have seen 30% drop in tows the last three years, 50% in 6 years.
> > Some of it may be folks now come out when the weather is good and stay
> > up longer thanks to Dr Jack and other forecasting tools, but the drop
> > in active pilots is the main factor IMO
>
> I've noticed the same thing, once people became convinced of the
> accuracy of BLIPMAPs and the like, most started showing up at our
> local soaring sites only on the really "good" days, then eventually
> some of those stopped showing up at all. *A truly odd side-effect of
> improved technology...
>
> Marc

I would suggest an additional factor is the cost of tows. When they
are as expensive as now, it pays to pick the best days. Hey, winch
launches can cost as little as $5/launch.

[son_of_flubber]

On Tuesday, May 29, 2012 4:28:04 PM UTC-4, noel.wade wrote:
> I don't believe in the value of random stick-and-rudder
> sessions with no pre-flight or post-flight briefing, or continuity of
> instruction.
> --Noel

Bravo.

Speaking as a student pilot who is not a "quick learning young natural", and who has had a haphazard and prolonged training, I believe that I've found the 'silver lining' to what appears to be the prevalent and defacto training methodology in the USA. The 'silver lining' to the current state-of-training is this: as I approach the date of my practical test, I've come to the conclusion that no test or examiner can (or will) accurately evaluate the completeness and quality of my training, knowledge, and manifest skill. That responsibility rests squarely on me and that realization suggests to me that I should pass the "attitude" and "wisdom" components of the practical examination. CFI-Gs and recurrent training are essential to identifying and correcting deficiencies, but the responsibility is mine. It's 100% up to me to identify the holes in my training and skills, and my limitations. It's up to me to remedy my deficiencies and fly within my limitations. That's a critical part of what it means to deserve a pilot's certificate.

All of my several instructors have been terrifically skillful, dedicated, and generous, but the overall training methodology, as it plays out in practice, and in my limited experience, is catch-as-catch-can. Maybe it's suppose to be that way?? It's surely made me self-reliant. If a student is not prepared to passionately continue their training for the rest of their flying career, then they should not show up for their practical exam. It's on the student's head to make that frank self-examination.

[Bill D]

On May 29, 1:50*pm, Steve Freeman > wrote:
> Our club noticed a significant drop in the number of tows in 2011. It was a bit over 25% less than the average of the previous three years with no corresponding decrease in the number of members. The reduction was especially apparent in the 1K tows. I am curious if other clubs (100+ members) noticed the same drop or if it is local to our club. Please let me know how your data compares and the number of members you have. Thanks

In the three year interval from 2009 to 2011, the number of active
tugs increased from ~175 to ~ 210. That was a mystery but,
apparently, the additional tugs are being used to tow privately owned
single seat gliders.

I know of several clubs who emphasize private ownership and cross
country to the exclusion of flight training. They objected to
training since it made for longer launch queues. ("Get those damn
students out of the way" was the refrain.) Training generates a large
number of tows but a club with 10 private ships will generate just 10
tows a day.

If this theory is correct, it is a sad situation.

[Marc]

On May 30, 12:31*pm, Bill D > wrote:
> In the three year interval from 2009 to 2011, the number of active
> tugs increased from ~175 to ~ 210. *That was a mystery but,
> apparently, the additional tugs are being used to tow privately owned
> single seat gliders.

How are the number of active tugs determined?

Marc

[Bill D]

On May 30, 1:51*pm, Marc > wrote:
> On May 30, 12:31*pm, Bill D > wrote:
>
> > In the three year interval from 2009 to 2011, the number of active
> > tugs increased from ~175 to ~ 210. *That was a mystery but,
> > apparently, the additional tugs are being used to tow privately owned
> > single seat gliders.
>
> How are the number of active tugs determined?
>
> Marc

By getting on the phone and asking people. That number is cross
checked against the "Where-to-fly" database.

[[email protected]]

On Tuesday, May 29, 2012 3:50:35 PM UTC-4, Steve Freeman wrote:
> Our club noticed a significant drop in the number of tows in 2011. It was a bit over 25% less than the average of the previous three years with no corresponding decrease in the number of members. The reduction was especially apparent in the 1K tows. I am curious if other clubs (100+ members) noticed the same drop or if it is local to our club. Please let me know how your data compares and the number of members you have. Thanks

We saw a slight drop last year -about 15% vs previous that was one of our best years. Weather was poor and private tows were way down. Training was even with other years.
I do note a drop off on folks coming to the airport to just hang out. We all still shower so I suspect it is related to the fact that the gas to get to the airport costs the same as 1/2 a tow.
Another data point
UH

[Bruce Barnard[_2_]]

The Wx in 2011 was very poor in many parts if the country. I flew 25%
less at our non-club.

[Don Johnstone[_4_]]

At 19:50 29 May 2012, Steve Freeman wrote:
>Our club noticed a significant drop in the number of tows in 2011. It was
>a=
> bit over 25% less than the average of the previous three years with no
>cor=
>responding decrease in the number of members. The reduction was
especially
>=
>apparent in the 1K tows. I am curious if other clubs (100+ members)
>noticed=
> the same drop or if it is local to our club. Please let me know how your
>d=
>ata compares and the number of members you have. Thanks

We have noticed the same in the UK, it's the economic downturn, leisure
activities are the first to show a decline in a recession. They even in
many cases signal the onset.

[Martin Gregorie[_5_]]

On Sat, 02 Jun 2012 01:17:54 +0000, Don Johnstone wrote:

> We have noticed the same in the UK, it's the economic downturn, leisure
> activities are the first to show a decline in a recession. They even in
> many cases signal the onset.
>
The weather's not helping either - especially for those of us in clubs
subject to North Sea clag. Its telling you quite a bit about that when
even people like Sarah Kelman say they've only had their toy out of its
box twice this year.


--
martin@ | Martin Gregorie
gregorie. | Essex, UK
org |