Re: Cessna profits plunge......OT (or is it?)

[C J Campbell]

"Nomen Nescio" ]> wrote in message
...
| -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
|
| BOSTON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Textron Inc. <TXT.N> on Thursday
| said quarterly net income fell sharply as profit at its key
| Cessna aircraft division was cut more than 50 percent on slack
| demand for business jets.
|
| Revenue at Cessna plunged to $620 million from $896 million
| in the year-ago quarter. Profit fell to $43 million from $94
| million on lower sales of Citation business jets.
|
| Backlog for unfilled customer orders at Cessna was $4.4
| billion, or flat with the third quarter, Textron said.
|

Um, let's see. There is a backlog, meaning that they have more orders than
they can fill. So they cut production by 50%, tell their customers that no
planes will be available until 2006, then whine that their sales are down.
Whoever is running this company should be hanged. No, actually, drawn and
quartered -- and their living entrails burned before their very eyes.
Seriously, Cessna has a management problem. In fact, they have possibly the
worst management in their entire history -- and that is going some. I
believe that even I could turn that company around.

[Mike Rapoport]

You have to size the company to the current market. What would you have
them do? Run flat out until they have no backlog and then go out of
business? Keep in mind that a lot of their backlog is for airplanes that
they couldn't ship (new models). .I don't know about Textron's management,
perhaps they are terrible but I don't see anything here that demonstrates
that they are.

Mike
MU-2


"C J Campbell" > wrote in message
...
>
> "Nomen Nescio" ]> wrote in
message
> ...
> | -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> |
> | BOSTON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Textron Inc. <TXT.N> on Thursday
> | said quarterly net income fell sharply as profit at its key
> | Cessna aircraft division was cut more than 50 percent on slack
> | demand for business jets.
> |
> | Revenue at Cessna plunged to $620 million from $896 million
> | in the year-ago quarter. Profit fell to $43 million from $94
> | million on lower sales of Citation business jets.
> |
> | Backlog for unfilled customer orders at Cessna was $4.4
> | billion, or flat with the third quarter, Textron said.
> |
>
> Um, let's see. There is a backlog, meaning that they have more orders than
> they can fill. So they cut production by 50%, tell their customers that no
> planes will be available until 2006, then whine that their sales are down.
> Whoever is running this company should be hanged. No, actually, drawn and
> quartered -- and their living entrails burned before their very eyes.
> Seriously, Cessna has a management problem. In fact, they have possibly
the
> worst management in their entire history -- and that is going some. I
> believe that even I could turn that company around.
>
>

[C J Campbell]

"Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
nk.net...
| You have to size the company to the current market. What would you have
| them do? Run flat out until they have no backlog and then go out of
| business? Keep in mind that a lot of their backlog is for airplanes that
| they couldn't ship (new models). .I don't know about Textron's
management,
| perhaps they are terrible but I don't see anything here that demonstrates
| that they are.

It may be that I am just mad at Cessna because they keep promising stuff
that they don't deliver. We have a customer who ordered a 182 with the G1000
Nav III package back in November. Cessna promised him May delivery. Now they
are saying that their entire production line has been sold out, but maybe
they can get him a plane in December. They do this time and again,
constantly. They toyed with the idea of doing a second production run this
year, but instead they laid off all the workers. Smart, real smart.

[Michael]

"C J Campbell" > wrote
> Um, let's see. There is a backlog, meaning that they have more orders than
> they can fill.

Well, your first problem is that you clearly have no idea what a
backlog is. Have you ever actually tried to run a business that
manufactures anything at all, never mind limited-market high-ticket
items? Do you know ANYTHING about manufacturing at all, or are you a
bean counter? Since the answer seems to be the latter, let me explain
the facts of life to you.

Everything has a lead time. Simple, common, and cheap parts have lead
times measured in days, and maybe even hours (sometimes you can send
someone out to pick it up). Complex, expensive, and limited
application parts can have lead times of literally months. Changes
are often not viable, because such parts are rarely standard. Changes
can have suble effects on operation, and not-so-subtle effects on
approvals. When most units you sell are expensive, complex, and
customized it is literally impossible to build anything as soon as it
comes in. Production must be scheduled, and parts must be ordered.
You simply can't survive without a backlog.

Depending on part lead times and assembly build times, the necessary
minimum backlog varies. In my business, the typical unit costs only
thousands or tens of thousands, we build several thousand units a
year, and we can't possibly survive with a backlog of less than about
3 months. Six months is more realistic. For a business that builds
hundreds of units costing several hundred thousand to several million,
a year or two of backlog sounds like a bare minimum.

> So they cut production by 50%, tell their customers that no
> planes will be available until 2006, then whine that their sales are down.

New airplanes are not purchased from stock. These are not passenger
cars, made largely standard and produced in lots of a million.

> Whoever is running this company should be hanged. No, actually, drawn and
> quartered -- and their living entrails burned before their very eyes.
> Seriously, Cessna has a management problem. In fact, they have possibly the
> worst management in their entire history -- and that is going some. I
> believe that even I could turn that company around.

Yeah, I've met several accountants that thought they could run
manufacturing companies. When things went well, they were fired
before they could run the companies into the ground.

Michael

[Tom Sixkiller]

"Michael" > wrote in message
om...
> "C J Campbell" > wrote
> > Um, let's see. There is a backlog, meaning that they have more orders
than
> > they can fill.
>
> Well, your first problem is that you clearly have no idea what a
> backlog is. Have you ever actually tried to run a business that
> manufactures anything at all, never mind limited-market high-ticket
> items? Do you know ANYTHING about manufacturing at all, or are you a
> bean counter? Since the answer seems to be the latter, let me explain
> the facts of life to you.



Let me explain some facts to you: you are quite patronizing and
condescending. That's putting it mildly.

[C J Campbell]

"Michael" > wrote in message
om...
| "C J Campbell" > wrote
| > Um, let's see. There is a backlog, meaning that they have more orders
than
| > they can fill.
|
| Well, your first problem is that you clearly have no idea what a
| backlog is. Have you ever actually tried to run a business that
| manufactures anything at all, never mind limited-market high-ticket
| items? Do you know ANYTHING about manufacturing at all, or are you a
| bean counter? Since the answer seems to be the latter, let me explain
| the facts of life to you.
|
| Everything has a lead time.

Of course it does. Cessna has been underproducing for five years running,
now. Even those who are not bean counters should be able to expect that some
of those parts should have been delivered by now.

Before you start telling me the facts of life, you would do well to do them.
Have you ever had a position of responsibility higher than that of stock boy
or janitor? I doubt it.

[Martin Hotze]

On 30 Jan 2004 14:44:48 -0800, Michael wrote:

>
>New airplanes are not purchased from stock. These are not passenger
>cars, made largely standard and produced in lots of a million.

but this will be HONDA's big plus when they will come out with their plane
(anybody have news on this plane?) because of their knowledge with
just-in-time production.

#m
--
http://ars.userfriendly.org/cartoons/?id=19990509

[G.R. Patterson III]

C J Campbell wrote:
>
> "Nomen Nescio" ]> wrote in message
> ...
> | -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> |
> | BOSTON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Textron Inc. <TXT.N> on Thursday
> | said quarterly net income fell sharply as profit at its key
> | Cessna aircraft division was cut more than 50 percent on slack
> | demand for business jets.
> |
> | Revenue at Cessna plunged to $620 million from $896 million
> | in the year-ago quarter. Profit fell to $43 million from $94
> | million on lower sales of Citation business jets.
> |
> | Backlog for unfilled customer orders at Cessna was $4.4
> | billion, or flat with the third quarter, Textron said.
> |
>
> Um, let's see. There is a backlog, meaning that they have more orders than
> they can fill. So they cut production by 50%, tell their customers that no
> planes will be available until 2006, then whine that their sales are down.

They said profit went down 50%, not production.

George Patterson
Love, n.: A form of temporary insanity afflicting the young. It is curable
either by marriage or by removal of the afflicted from the circumstances
under which he incurred the condition. It is sometimes fatal, but more
often to the physician than to the patient.

[Tom Sixkiller]

"C J Campbell" > wrote in message
...
>
> "Michael" > wrote in message
> om...
> | "C J Campbell" > wrote
> | > Um, let's see. There is a backlog, meaning that they have more orders
> than
> | > they can fill.
> |
> | Well, your first problem is that you clearly have no idea what a
> | backlog is. Have you ever actually tried to run a business that
> | manufactures anything at all, never mind limited-market high-ticket
> | items? Do you know ANYTHING about manufacturing at all, or are you a
> | bean counter? Since the answer seems to be the latter, let me explain
> | the facts of life to you.
> |
> | Everything has a lead time.
>
> Of course it does. Cessna has been underproducing for five years running,
> now. Even those who are not bean counters should be able to expect that
some
> of those parts should have been delivered by now.
>
> Before you start telling me the facts of life, you would do well to do
them.
> Have you ever had a position of responsibility higher than that of stock
boy
> or janitor? I doubt it.

I notice, too, that he _assumed_ the cause of the backorder. Now there's a
good "fact of life" that Michael missed. He also missed several more, but
what's the use...

[Dude]

You mean they don't have positions like the other folks?

I don't understand why they would do this to someone.


"C J Campbell" > wrote in message
...
>
> "Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
> nk.net...
> | You have to size the company to the current market. What would you have
> | them do? Run flat out until they have no backlog and then go out of
> | business? Keep in mind that a lot of their backlog is for airplanes that
> | they couldn't ship (new models). .I don't know about Textron's
> management,
> | perhaps they are terrible but I don't see anything here that
demonstrates
> | that they are.
>
> It may be that I am just mad at Cessna because they keep promising stuff
> that they don't deliver. We have a customer who ordered a 182 with the
G1000
> Nav III package back in November. Cessna promised him May delivery. Now
they
> are saying that their entire production line has been sold out, but maybe
> they can get him a plane in December. They do this time and again,
> constantly. They toyed with the idea of doing a second production run this
> year, but instead they laid off all the workers. Smart, real smart.
>
>