How was ridge working?

[[email protected]]

Sunday, November 3. How were the Allegheny ridges working yesterday from Eagle Field, PA to Covington, VA. Any over-development or snow showers?

[JS]

Wondered that yesterday morning, thought 500k?
Leaving Philadelphia the flight path went over the Blairstown 300k O/R turnpoint at Pillow microwave tower. There was a cu at the end of Mahantango south of the river, positioned well for the upwind jog to Tuscarora.
OLC scores look better than I thought.
Jim

[[email protected]]

Just past Covington, my friend JP Stewart (18 years old) pulled off a Diamond Distance yesterday!

http://www.onlinecontest.org/olc-2.0/gliding/flightbook.html?rt=olc&st=olcp&pi=46118&sp=2014

Daniel

[Papa3[_2_]]

On Monday, November 4, 2013 11:47:34 AM UTC-5, wrote:
> Sunday, November 3. How were the Allegheny ridges working yesterday from Eagle Field, PA to Covington, VA. Any over-development or snow showers?

I issued a record watch a few days before Sunday, only to have to start dialing it back as each successive model run began to indicate more problems. To summarize. Winds were weaker and more NNW to N than ideal for the majority of the ridge system. Also, there was much more trailing moisture around until about late morning than originally forecast; bases started low and convection was weaker until that cleared. Blairstown folks were able to get out early, as NNW is ideal for the local ridges. I also saw flights from M-ASA, Eagle Field, etc, that all used parts of the ridge system in the Blairstown/Mifflin/M-ASA task areas (i.e. Mahantango Mountain, Tuscarora Mountain, Tussey, Nittany, Bald Eagle, etc.) Oh, and the great flight JP Stewart made from BRSS.

All pireps featured words like "tricky", "soft", "squirelly", "tough" etc. Having said that 600K or better in November isn't too shabby.

See: http://www.onlinecontest.org/olc-2.0/gliding/daily.html?df=2013-11-03&sp=2014&rt=olc&st=olc&c=US&sc=2

[Piet Barber]

On Monday, November 4, 2013 7:14:27 PM UTC-5, Papa3 wrote:
> On Monday, November 4, 2013 11:47:34 AM UTC-5, wrote:
>
> > Sunday, November 3. How were the Allegheny ridges working yesterday from Eagle Field, PA to Covington, VA. Any over-development or snow showers?

In the not-quite-useful response category:
On Sunday in Front Royal VA, the Massanutten was not working, except for the very northern tip, which was just barely perpendicular to the very northerly winds. My SN-10 reported with high confidence that the winds were 000 at 18 when I launched at 10:30ish. The winds got more westerly as the day went on, and I eventually contacted weak wave up above 10,000 feet. None of the private ships assembled at KFRR except for me, so I had the wave to myself. The wave I contacted was generated by the Alleghenies.

Although I was significantly west of the main ridge, I did get high enough to see all the way to Petersburg, and didn't see any precipitation, just blue and an occasional roll cloud.

[Bob Whelan[_3_]]

On 11/4/2013 5:14 PM, Papa3 wrote:
> On Monday, November 4, 2013 11:47:34 AM UTC-5, wrote:
>> Sunday, November 3. How were the Allegheny ridges working yesterday from
>> Eagle Field, PA to Covington, VA. Any over-development or snow showers?
>
> I issued a record watch a few days before Sunday, only to have to start
> dialing it back as each successive model run began to indicate more
> problems. <Snip...>

Continuing the thread drift...

FWIW, if I had to be limited to one single "high tech" piece of data to help
me forecast soaring weather, it would be the following link.

http://www.weather.gov/satellite?image=ir&hours=24

It usta be even better when you could set the time-lapse speed and run the
loop continuously, insteada the manually-controlled, one-speed-for-all present
version; mindless repetition can be good!

About the only thing the satellite loop doesn't help me do a better job of
forecasting than the weather professionals (of the NWS), is detecting
(vertically) thin cold fronts that somewhat occasionally (in the front range
of Colorado region) lack clouds or moisture sufficient to show up on the
composite loop. Primarily a winter phenomenon, these puppies can - not
directly influenced by the jet - slide in at an angle to the jet if one relies
exclusively on satellite views. (Of course, they show up really well from
upstream surface temps, which I'm too lazy to monitor...)

Five minutes (or less, once you've got yourself dialed in) each morning is all
that's needed to get really good at 24-hour (and - depending on jet stream
configuration & location - sometimes several days out) forecasts quite useful
for soaring (not merely picnics!). Been using it for years...

YMMV, depending on geographic location, personal diligence honing your
predictive abilities based on the loop, etc.

By way of tying "my personal theory" to reality - since we're talking of
winter, cold fronts and the NWS - they seriously blew the "major weather
event" prediction overnight here by still calling for from 2-5 inches of snow
when last checked before hitting the rack...when clearly the jet indicated no
such thing. As I type, the sky's clearing, and the skiff of snow is long gone.

BTW, in the Unintended Consequences Department, it was the long-gone PBS
program "AM Weather" out of - IIRC - Ballamer (most of the country knows it as
"Baltimore"), MD, that clued me in to the (no pun intended) overriding
influence of the jet on surface weather. Remember their short, repetitive
satellite loop segment? In the pre-soaring-forecast days, it was all Joe
Schmoes like me had easily available for predictive purposes. Over time it
dawned on me inferences based on the jet's location and pattern of motion over
the surface were MUCH better indicators of future weather than were NWS
forecasts...at least in this area. The disconnect between reality and weather
models for this area remains true today, though to a lesser extent. In
particular, the NWS has gotten considerably better at predicting wind storm
events for this area, but - as typified by last evening's forecast - are still
pretty weak at predicting "major weather events" and precip amounts...

Bob W.

[Papa3[_2_]]

For my money, the following is the best satellite source for short-term now casting:

On Tuesday, November 5, 2013 12:44:19 PM UTC-5, Bob Whelan wrote:
> On 11/4/2013 5:14 PM, Papa3 wrote:
>
>
> Continuing the thread drift...
>
>
>
> FWIW, if I had to be limited to one single "high tech" piece of data to help
>
> me forecast soaring weather, it would be the following link.
>
>
>
> http://www.weather.gov/satellite?image=ir&hours=24
>
>
>
> It usta be even better when you could set the time-lapse speed and run the
>
> loop continuously, insteada the manually-controlled, one-speed-for-all present
>
> version; mindless repetition can be good!
>
>

[Papa3[_2_]]

For my money, this is the most useful short term/nowcasting satellite tool. You can zoom in on a region, overlay county lines, change the resolution, and look at up to a half-day's worth of history. Super useful for visualizing streeting and wave in the Appalachians...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


On Tuesday, November 5, 2013 12:44:19 PM UTC-5, Bob Whelan wrote:
> On 11/4/2013 5:14 PM, Papa3 wrote:
>
> > On Monday, November 4, 2013 11:47:34 AM UTC-5, wrote:
>
> >> Sunday, November 3. How were the Allegheny ridges working yesterday from
>
> >> Eagle Field, PA to Covington, VA. Any over-development or snow showers?
>
> >
>
> > I issued a record watch a few days before Sunday, only to have to start
>
> > dialing it back as each successive model run began to indicate more
>
> > problems. <Snip...>
>
>
>
> Continuing the thread drift...
>
>
>
> FWIW, if I had to be limited to one single "high tech" piece of data to help
>
> me forecast soaring weather, it would be the following link.
>
>
>
> http://www.weather.gov/satellite?image=ir&hours=24
>
>
>
> It usta be even better when you could set the time-lapse speed and run the
>
> loop continuously, insteada the manually-controlled, one-speed-for-all present
>
> version; mindless repetition can be good!
>
>

[[email protected]]

Hello Papa3. How does one "subscribe" to your ridge weather watch?

On Monday, November 4, 2013 7:14:27 PM UTC-5, Papa3 wrote:
> On Monday, November 4, 2013 11:47:34 AM UTC-5, wrote:
>
> > Sunday, November 3. How were the Allegheny ridges working yesterday from Eagle Field, PA to Covington, VA. Any over-development or snow showers?
>
>
>
> I issued a record watch a few days before Sunday, only to have to start dialing it back as each successive model run began to indicate more problems.

[Soartech]

On Wednesday, November 6, 2013 10:43:11 AM UTC-5, wrote:
> Hello Papa3. How does one "subscribe" to your ridge weather watch?
>
Me too. How?

[Papa3[_2_]]

On Wednesday, November 6, 2013 12:55:34 PM UTC-5, Soartech wrote:
> On Wednesday, November 6, 2013 10:43:11 AM UTC-5, wrote:
>
> > Hello Papa3. How does one "subscribe" to your ridge weather watch?
>
> >
>
> Me too. How?

Well, it's starts with the secret handshake. Then of course there's deposit only access to the Swiss bank account...

Right now, I just have an informal list of folks to whom I shoot mails when the mood strikes me. Let me see if I can put something a little more structured in place. In the meantime, feel free to pm me and I can add you to the list.

BTW, today's front is coming through pretty much as progged. Winds just swung around to the NW at stations like KABE, KMDT etc. Unfortunately, the moisture is a little worse than forecast. Might be an hour of soarable Wx just before sunset.

It's certainly nice out here in Ohio today...

[Papa3[_2_]]

Today's looking like a good one for November. Pepe Sare looks to be on an out-and-return mission to Narrows from Eagle Field, which should be good for about 1000K. Several other flights out of Ridge Soaring and Blairstown.

If the wind's blowing from the WNW to NNW this time of year, the ridge is probably working.

A new Google Group in the works for Appalachian Soaring forecasts and related topics. Stand by.

P3
On Thursday, November 7, 2013 3:15:20 PM UTC-5, Papa3 wrote:
> On Wednesday, November 6, 2013 12:55:34 PM UTC-5, Soartech wrote:
>
> > On Wednesday, November 6, 2013 10:43:11 AM UTC-5, wrote:
>
> >
>
> > > Hello Papa3. How does one "subscribe" to your ridge weather watch?
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > Me too. How?
>
>
>
> Well, it's starts with the secret handshake. Then of course there's deposit only access to the Swiss bank account...
>
>
>
> Right now, I just have an informal list of folks to whom I shoot mails when the mood strikes me. Let me see if I can put something a little more structured in place. In the meantime, feel free to pm me and I can add you to the list.
>
>
>
> BTW, today's front is coming through pretty much as progged. Winds just swung around to the NW at stations like KABE, KMDT etc. Unfortunately, the moisture is a little worse than forecast. Might be an hour of soarable Wx just before sunset.
>
>
>
> It's certainly nice out here in Ohio today...