Weak Dollar (Bad News - Good News)

[JJ Sinclair]

The weak dollar has driven the price of a new glass slipper with instruments,
trailer and shipping to $100,000 US dollars (Bad News) I have watched the
dollar exchange rate for almost 30 years and I have made some observations.
When the dollar gets this weak, new sales drop off and buyers are inclined to
sell their positions on new ships. (Bad News for manufacturers and dealers)

So, what's the good news? Used sailplane sales will pick up. The used prices
always lag the dollar. It takes about a year and we have just had our year of
the weak dollar. Expect used ships to start selling and for the prices to firm
up and even start rising. Expect sailplanes to be exported back to Europe and
other non-US markets.

So, now is a good time to buy a used ship, before they sell or the price goes
back up. I see a couple of used V2's for sale in the mid 60's. This is an
outstanding bargain when compared to the new US price of $100,000, or more.

So, bring your new (used) ship to the Minden Championships (June 7 - 12) and
be the envy of all those assembled. She's filling up fast and we have been
forced to place a limit of 40 total entrants, due to limited parking on the
East side of the airport. Standard, 15 meter, 18 Meter, Open Classes. Contact
me for a slot, preferential cut-off is 7 April, 2004.
See you on the ramp,
JJ Sinclair (CD) & NLBFP
JJ Sinclair

[F.L. Whiteley]

Is there really much good news in this?

Last time it got out of whack, the Germans came over and bought up several
of the used fleet for refinishing. Didn't hurt the new market much in the
long run, but strained the used market IIRC. Suspect any factory
sponsorship in that effort?

Frank Whiteley
Colorado

"JJ Sinclair" > wrote in message
...
> The weak dollar has driven the price of a new glass slipper with
instruments,
> trailer and shipping to $100,000 US dollars (Bad News) I have watched the
> dollar exchange rate for almost 30 years and I have made some
observations.
> When the dollar gets this weak, new sales drop off and buyers are inclined
to
> sell their positions on new ships. (Bad News for manufacturers and
dealers)
>
> So, what's the good news? Used sailplane sales will pick up. The used
prices
> always lag the dollar. It takes about a year and we have just had our year
of
> the weak dollar. Expect used ships to start selling and for the prices to
firm
> up and even start rising. Expect sailplanes to be exported back to Europe
and
> other non-US markets.
>
> So, now is a good time to buy a used ship, before they sell or the price
goes
> back up. I see a couple of used V2's for sale in the mid 60's. This is an
> outstanding bargain when compared to the new US price of $100,000, or
more.
>
> So, bring your new (used) ship to the Minden Championships (June 7 - 12)
and
> be the envy of all those assembled. She's filling up fast and we have been
> forced to place a limit of 40 total entrants, due to limited parking on
the
> East side of the airport. Standard, 15 meter, 18 Meter, Open Classes.
Contact
> me for a slot, preferential cut-off is 7 April, 2004.
> See you on the ramp,
> JJ Sinclair (CD) & NLBFP
> JJ Sinclair

[Eric Greenwell]

F.L. Whiteley wrote:
> Is there really much good news in this?

Only for the people that want to get out of the sport and sell their
glider. For the rest of us, it makes it harder for new people to get
their own glider because old and new are more expensive, it raises our
insurance costs because we have to insure the hull for more, and the
factories sell fewer gliders. The instrument makers sell fewer varios
and flight computers, too. Not many winners when prices go up.
>
> Last time it got out of whack, the Germans came over and bought up several
> of the used fleet for refinishing. Didn't hurt the new market much in the
> long run, but strained the used market IIRC. Suspect any factory
> sponsorship in that effort?

Was it the factories buying them to refinish, or individuals (my
recolletion)?
--
-----
change "netto" to "net" to email me directly

Eric Greenwell
Washington State
USA

[Ian Cant]

It would be good news if Schweizer were still in the
business. Maybe also for sparrowhawks ? Pity we can't
support a domestic manufacturer.

Ian

At 16:24 25 January 2004, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>F.L. Whiteley wrote:
>> Is there really much good news in this?
>
>Only for the people that want to get out of the sport
>and sell their
>glider. For the rest of us, it makes it harder for
>new people to get
>their own glider because old and new are more expensive,
>it raises our
>insurance costs because we have to insure the hull
>for more, and the
>factories sell fewer gliders. The instrument makers
>sell fewer varios
>and flight computers, too. Not many winners when prices
>go up.
>>
>> Last time it got out of whack, the Germans came over
>>and bought up several
>> of the used fleet for refinishing. Didn't hurt the
>>new market much in the
>> long run, but strained the used market IIRC. Suspect
>>any factory
>> sponsorship in that effort?
>
>Was it the factories buying them to refinish, or individuals
>(my
>recolletion)?
>--
>-----
>change 'netto' to 'net' to email me directly
>
>Eric Greenwell
>Washington State
>USA
>
>

[Eric Greenwell]

Ian Cant wrote:
> It would be good news if Schweizer were still in the
> business. Maybe also for sparrowhawks ? Pity we can't
> support a domestic manufacturer.

Why so gloomy? Windward Performance is busily making SparrowHawks, and
has plans for new designs. There should be at least 12 SH flying by the
time the season starts (#10 delivered this month). They'll have one at
the convention, so stop by, take a look, and talk with the country's
only sailplane manufacturer!

--
-----
change "netto" to "net" to email me directly

Eric Greenwell
Washington State
USA

[F.L. Whiteley]

"Eric Greenwell" > wrote in message
...
> F.L. Whiteley wrote:
> > Is there really much good news in this?
>
> Only for the people that want to get out of the sport and sell their
> glider. For the rest of us, it makes it harder for new people to get
> their own glider because old and new are more expensive, it raises our
> insurance costs because we have to insure the hull for more, and the
> factories sell fewer gliders. The instrument makers sell fewer varios
> and flight computers, too. Not many winners when prices go up.
> >
Agreed. But if/when we regain parity so that prices appear reasonable,
interest rates may well be high enough to offset any difference, if
financing is needed. If the dollar is allowed to dwindle, it might serve as
some inspiration to compete. However, it sounds as if the export market
would be tough as the Euros are rumbling about duties and protectionism. So
we'll end up like the French, producing for our own market. Could be good
for the Peregrine effort, if they get their documentation done. Maybe it
could some serious interest in alternatives.

> > Last time it got out of whack, the Germans came over and bought up
several
> > of the used fleet for refinishing. Didn't hurt the new market much in
the
> > long run, but strained the used market IIRC. Suspect any factory
> > sponsorship in that effort?
>
> Was it the factories buying them to refinish, or individuals (my
> recolletion)?
> --
Individuals, but who knows if they were sponsored or not. Were I in major
glider production I'd certainly consider the short and long term economic
factors of such a strategy. However, I suspect they were likely just
entrepaneurial ventures rather than cartels.

Frank

[Derek Ruddock]

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