Future of 15m

[John Foster]

With the rise in popularity of 18m soaring, what do you guys think will be the future of 15m? Are there enough advantages of 15m over 18m for it to continue to have a strong place in competition? It seems most manufacturers are now making 18m sailplanes, that can be converted to 15m, but they primarily start or come as 18m now. Thoughts?

[Andy Blackburn[_3_]]

On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 12:47:41 PM UTC-8, John Foster wrote:
> With the rise in popularity of 18m soaring, what do you guys think will be the future of 15m? Are there enough advantages of 15m over 18m for it to continue to have a strong place in competition? It seems most manufacturers are now making 18m sailplanes, that can be converted to 15m, but they primarily start or come as 18m now. Thoughts?

One indication would be the number of pilots attending US Nationals.

Overall participation is slowly declining for a whole host of reasons I won't get into. The relative level of participation and rate of decline varies a lot by class.

18M - Currently the best-attended FAI nationals with an average participation of 25 pilots over the past 5 years and participation gradually declining by about 1 pilot every 7 years since 1997. Participation had been good the last couple of years, but a lot of short term variation is related to site selection and idiosyncratic factors.

15M - Second most popular class with 23 pilots attending a Nationals on average over 5 years with a more rapid decline of around 1.7 pilots per year. 15/18 gliders ought to keep the 15M Nationals going for awhile as pilots tend to elect to do either 15 or 18 based on geographic proximity (not many people drive across the country for a contest anymore).

Open - Contracted to a dedicated 10-20 pilots attending Nationals, depending on venue (13 average). The emergence of 18/21M gliders may help sustain Open. On average participation has fallen by about one pilot per 3-4 years.

Standard - Lowest participation and steepest 20-year decline. 10 pilots on average (12 if you don't count the goose-egg at Hobbs in 2014). Standard has lost 2 pilots per year on average since 1997, but has been flat at right around the minimum number required for a valid contest since 2009.

Here are some charts to show the actual data:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-v79kWT6qCu82ZBV5z59xCUDFrF9pdYu

Hope that helps.

Andy Blackburn (9B) - on behalf of the Contest Rules Committee

[John Godfrey (QT)[_2_]]

On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 5:05:49 PM UTC-5, Andy Blackburn wrote:
> On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 12:47:41 PM UTC-8, John Foster wrote:
> > With the rise in popularity of 18m soaring, what do you guys think will be the future of 15m? Are there enough advantages of 15m over 18m for it to continue to have a strong place in competition? It seems most manufacturers are now making 18m sailplanes, that can be converted to 15m, but they primarily start or come as 18m now. Thoughts?
>
> One indication would be the number of pilots attending US Nationals.
>
> Overall participation is slowly declining for a whole host of reasons I won't get into. The relative level of participation and rate of decline varies a lot by class.
>
> 18M - Currently the best-attended FAI nationals with an average participation of 25 pilots over the past 5 years and participation gradually declining by about 1 pilot every 7 years since 1997. Participation had been good the last couple of years, but a lot of short term variation is related to site selection and idiosyncratic factors.
>
> 15M - Second most popular class with 23 pilots attending a Nationals on average over 5 years with a more rapid decline of around 1.7 pilots per year.. 15/18 gliders ought to keep the 15M Nationals going for awhile as pilots tend to elect to do either 15 or 18 based on geographic proximity (not many people drive across the country for a contest anymore).
>
> Open - Contracted to a dedicated 10-20 pilots attending Nationals, depending on venue (13 average). The emergence of 18/21M gliders may help sustain Open. On average participation has fallen by about one pilot per 3-4 years..
>
> Standard - Lowest participation and steepest 20-year decline. 10 pilots on average (12 if you don't count the goose-egg at Hobbs in 2014). Standard has lost 2 pilots per year on average since 1997, but has been flat at right around the minimum number required for a valid contest since 2009.
>
> Here are some charts to show the actual data:
>
> https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-v79kWT6qCu82ZBV5z59xCUDFrF9pdYu
>
> Hope that helps.
>
> Andy Blackburn (9B) - on behalf of the Contest Rules Committee

Andy,
I think we have to go beyond Nationals to address this properly. Harder to do as you need to map glider to native class for all the regionals.

[Andy Blackburn[_3_]]

On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 2:38:59 PM UTC-8, John Godfrey (QT) wrote:
> Andy,
> I think we have to go beyond Nationals to address this properly. Harder to do as you need to map glider to native class for all the regionals.

Yeah, that's more work that I was willing to do. Nationals participation is an okay leading indicator.

The other thing to think about is you can always fly Sports and there are occasionally mixed FAI contests. Generally, organizers don't want to turn pilots away so I wouldn't be too concerned that anyone is going to pull the plug on 15M anytime soon.

Last year, the average PRL score for competitors at FAI Nationals was 94 for 18M, 92 for Open, 91 for standard and 90 for 15M, so high-quality pilots continue to fly all classes at the Nationals level at least.

Lots of very good 15M gliders out there - Standard too.

9B

[Jonathan St. Cloud]

I fly a 29, never flown a 27 but I can tell you what you get in a 29 that you do not get in a 27. A 29 has wings that are 50 pounds heavier per side! So add in the extra 100 pounds in wing weight, throw in $50,000 mix it together and you get a 4-5% increase in performance. I do love the 29, but if I had a modern 15 meter, I would not look to "upgrade", unless of course I was going open class! As far as racing there is top flight competition in 15 meters from regional level through WGC level.



On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 8:40:30 PM UTC-8, Andy Blackburn wrote:
> On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 2:38:59 PM UTC-8, John Godfrey (QT) wrote:
> > Andy,
> > I think we have to go beyond Nationals to address this properly. Harder to do as you need to map glider to native class for all the regionals.
>
> Yeah, that's more work that I was willing to do. Nationals participation is an okay leading indicator.
>
> The other thing to think about is you can always fly Sports and there are occasionally mixed FAI contests. Generally, organizers don't want to turn pilots away so I wouldn't be too concerned that anyone is going to pull the plug on 15M anytime soon.
>
> Last year, the average PRL score for competitors at FAI Nationals was 94 for 18M, 92 for Open, 91 for standard and 90 for 15M, so high-quality pilots continue to fly all classes at the Nationals level at least.
>
> Lots of very good 15M gliders out there - Standard too.
>
> 9B

[John Foster]

Sounds like for competitive soaring to endure in the US, there needs to be a significant push to get more people involved. Sounds like there needs to be more focus on young people, getting them involved from an early age.

I'm from MT, and there is apparently only 1 soaring club in the state, and it is a solid 4hr drive from where I live. And from what I'm told, they are not very active, if at all. Yet there is an airport 1 mile from my house with a whole fleet of Piper Pawnees (used mostly for wildland firefighting). Not a whole lot of money locally, but the place would make for stunning soaring!

[Rhubarb[_2_]]

I think the GP15 could well start a 15m resurgence

Electric self launcher (with ballast)
near 18m performance at 15m prices
light handling both in the air and on the ground (pity the wings arent 4 piece)

massive research in batteries should help. As long as the batteries (in the wings) dont catch fire or fail to perform because they are cold, this machine looks like a winner

[krasw]

On Monday, 4 December 2017 09:44:41 UTC+2, Rhubarb wrote:
> I think the GP15 could well start a 15m resurgence
>
> Electric self launcher (with ballast)
> near 18m performance at 15m prices
> light handling both in the air and on the ground (pity the wings arent 4 piece)
>
> massive research in batteries should help. As long as the batteries (in the wings) dont catch fire or fail to perform because they are cold, this machine looks like a winner

One thing is sure, there is no market for new glider that has no engine, so GP15 and possibly FES-Diana2 are the only contenders in pure 15m class. I guess some pilots will buy 15m tips for their 18m gliders, out of old habit while not using them outside 15m competitions.

There is no advance in aerodynamics that would make latest 15m perform like current 18m gliders, that is just marketing. Wing profiles have developed little lately.

[Rhubarb[_2_]]

materials seem to have improved though. the GP15 is very light, which allows a lower wing area, which gives a higher aspect ratio, which is probably the reason behind the expected performance gains. (maybe thinner wing too)

[JS[_5_]]

On Monday, December 4, 2017 at 12:43:30 AM UTC-8, Rhubarb wrote:
> materials seem to have improved though. the GP15 is very light, which allows a lower wing area, which gives a higher aspect ratio, which is probably the reason behind the expected performance gains. (maybe thinner wing too)

Hoping to see the GP15 at Reno.
Jim

[Jonathan St. Cloud]

On Sunday, December 3, 2017 at 11:24:42 PM UTC-8, John Foster wrote:
> Sounds like for competitive soaring to endure in the US, there needs to be a significant push to get more people involved. Sounds like there needs to be more focus on young people, getting them involved from an early age.
>
> I'm from MT, and there is apparently only 1 soaring club in the state, and it is a solid 4hr drive from where I live. And from what I'm told, they are not very active, if at all. Yet there is an airport 1 mile from my house with a whole fleet of Piper Pawnees (used mostly for wildland firefighting). Not a whole lot of money locally, but the place would make for stunning soaring!

Where in MT do you live?

[[email protected]]

I've owned my Standard Class ASW 24 for over 25 years. So for some time, my big question has been whether I can continue to fly contests where at least some top pilots show up. As 9B's data indicate, that seems to be the case in Standard Class. It's a small group, true, but every class in soaring is small these days. :(

Encouraging me is that I can fly Standard (which has some nice handicapping to encourage older generation gliders), Club, Sports, and--at the regional level--mixed handicapped 15M/Standard (e.g., Fairfield Reg. 4). And subject to the efficacy of the handicapping factors, I have a competitive glider in all of them.

Yeah, the "subject to" is an issue, especially out west, but it's one I'm willing to live with. I can't justify buying a new glider so it's nice to think I don't have to.

Chip Bearden

[Brett]

;960350']materials seem to have improved though. the GP15 is very light, which allows a lower wing area, which gives a higher aspect ratio, which is probably the reason behind the expected performance gains. (maybe thinner wing too)

The GP15 is a beautiful glider and promises to perform well. However we must remember it is built to a different set of standards than CS-22. This different conformity and lightness of build may affect crashworthiness and load limits.
It will be registered in the microlight or Ultralight category in a lot of countries which may restrict its wingloading and operating limits. Not sure where the USA sits in this regard.
Having said that they look fast. And when they look fast they generally go fast.

[Paul T[_4_]]

At 19:16 04 December 2017, Brett wrote:
>
>'Rhubarb[_2_ Wrote:
>> ;960350']materials seem to have improved though. the GP15 is
very light
>> which allows a lower wing area, which gives a higher aspect
ratio, whic
>> is probably the reason behind the expected performance gains.
(mayb
>> thinner wing too)
>
>The GP15 is a beautiful glider and promises to perform well.
However w
>must remember it is built to a different set of standards than CS-
22
>This different conformity and lightness of build may affec
>crashworthiness and load limits.
>It will be registered in the microlight or Ultralight category in a lo
>of countries which may restrict its wingloading and operating limits
>Not sure where the USA sits in this regard.
>Having said that they look fast. And when they look fast they
generall
>go fast
>
>
>
>
>--
>Brett
>

The small wing area high aspect ratio,light glider didn't seem to
work too well for the Duckhawk (in terms of sales) the GP15 maybe
different? Small cockpit though- the demonstrator at Aero 2017
looked a little rough around the edges and surprisingly few people
taking an interest in it when I was there which surprised me. They
will need to shift a few if the GP14 is killed off by FAI rules in 13.5m
class.

[John Foster]

On Monday, December 4, 2017 at 9:36:14 AM UTC-7, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
> On Sunday, December 3, 2017 at 11:24:42 PM UTC-8, John Foster wrote:
> > Sounds like for competitive soaring to endure in the US, there needs to be a significant push to get more people involved. Sounds like there needs to be more focus on young people, getting them involved from an early age..
> >
> > I'm from MT, and there is apparently only 1 soaring club in the state, and it is a solid 4hr drive from where I live. And from what I'm told, they are not very active, if at all. Yet there is an airport 1 mile from my house with a whole fleet of Piper Pawnees (used mostly for wildland firefighting). Not a whole lot of money locally, but the place would make for stunning soaring!
>
> Where in MT do you live?

Ronan. Those Mission Mountains beckon me every day!

[[email protected]]

On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 3:47:41 PM UTC-5, John Foster wrote:
> With the rise in popularity of 18m soaring, what do you guys think will be the future of 15m? Are there enough advantages of 15m over 18m for it to continue to have a strong place in competition? It seems most manufacturers are now making 18m sailplanes, that can be converted to 15m, but they primarily start or come as 18m now. Thoughts?

15 Meter class has lots of competitive gliders at what many see as reasonable cost. Values are pretty stable.
My opinion is that they give a great deal of performance while being convenient to own and fly. Assembling my '29 takes almost twice as long and is a lot more effort than my '27 was. It also cost me 66% more than my '27 and the hull portion of my insurance is proportionately higher.
The 18's built now have 2 piece wings to make the trailers shorter and the weight and bulk of the wings less. The break point can easily be put where it is practical to provide compromise 15M tips. The bigger span has the benefit of keeping span loading reasonable when the engine that 80% of new buyers want is installed.
When asked the question I always suggest 15 vs 18 from a balanced perspective.
That said, I love my '29.
With the large number of good ships available at reasonable(your view may differ) cost, I expect 15M will be around a long time.
FWIW
UH

[Mike the Strike]

There are many places where I have flown cross-country where landing out in a 15m ship is a much easier proposition than anything 18m or larger. Many desert or farm strips are designed for crop-dusters or Cessnas. Here in the desert Southwest, conditions are also strong most of the time so that there are few benefits of longer wings.

If you want longer wings, better get a (reliable) engine!

Mike

[Dave Walsh]

Yes, reliable engines: that would be nice. Unfortunately no
motor gliders have Honda engines; second best might be a
Stemme with a proper 4 stroke?
However the Stemme (S10) is something of a heavy weight
with handling to match: enjoyable yes, capable yes, but if you
could choose to fly a modern 15m or the Stemme you'd choose
the 15m if handling pleasure mattered to you.
I hope the 15m class has a future; I think it's one problem is
wing loading when an engine is on board - hence all the
18m/20m/21m/25m stuff with engines. So you just need to be
a purist and fly "proper" gliders, I used to do this and it is
great up until the moment you have to put your sparkly new
$100K+ carbon fibre ship into an unknown field or some dirt
strip in the middle of a desert. Then you can suddenly
understand why most of those new German ships are bought
with engines.....

As any owner will tell you: there is no such thing as a reliable
motor glider, absolutely all their engines can be guaranteed to
work sometimes, often when you actually need them

Dave