A good 12 hour soaring forecast goes bad

[Jonathan Gere]

Good weather on the 12 hour forecast became bad weather on the 9 hour
forecast. Even worse in the cockpit. See the forecast maps.

http://www.geocities.com/jgere34/12hrforecast.doc (167kB)

It's enough to make me wish for validation statistics on soaring
forecasts of various durations.

[Gary Evans]

Perhaps I can help. After 17 years chasing the wind
Hang Gliding and 5 years soaring I have identified
one absolute rule in weather forecasting. I don't know
why it works but trust me it does.

'ONLY THE BAD FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS RIGHT'

At 18:12 04 July 2004, Jonathan Gere wrote:
>Good weather on the 12 hour forecast became bad weather
>on the 9 hour
>forecast. Even worse in the cockpit. See the forecast
>maps.
>
>http://www.geocities.com/jgere34/12hrforecast.doc (167kB)
>
>It's enough to make me wish for validation statistics
>on soaring
>forecasts of various durations.
>

[Eric Greenwell]

Jonathan Gere wrote:
> Good weather on the 12 hour forecast became bad weather on the 9 hour
> forecast. Even worse in the cockpit. See the forecast maps.
>
> http://www.geocities.com/jgere34/12hrforecast.doc (167kB)
>
> It's enough to make me wish for validation statistics on soaring
> forecasts of various durations.

How did you generate this forecast?

--
Change "netto" to "net" to email me directly

Eric Greenwell
Washington State
USA

[Jonathan Gere]

Eric Greenwell > wrote in message >...
> How did you generate this forecast?

How to (US coverage only):

http://www.geocities.com/jgere34/readysoaringforecast.html

Jonathan Gere
ASW-20C 34

[m pautz]

FANTASTIC.

Now... If I only knew what I was looking at??? :-)

Jonathan Gere wrote:
> Eric Greenwell > wrote in message >...
>
>>How did you generate this forecast?
>
>
> How to (US coverage only):
>
> http://www.geocities.com/jgere34/readysoaringforecast.html
>
> Jonathan Gere
> ASW-20C 34

[TQ]

"Jonathan Gere" > wrote in message
om...
| Good weather on the 12 hour forecast became bad weather on the 9 hour
| forecast. Even worse in the cockpit. See the forecast maps.
|
| http://www.geocities.com/jgere34/12hrforecast.doc (167kB)
|
| It's enough to make me wish for validation statistics on soaring
| forecasts of various durations.

The 12 HR forecast did not have the benefit of fresh upper air data, as did
the 9 HR. Your best bet is to stick with forecast output from model runs
based on 00z and 12z data.

--
TQ

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