Day 3 Region 8 Ephrata Wa

[Nick Kennedy[_3_]]

Well whoever forecasts the weather around here has got to be fired.
This morning NOAA was forecasting Down pouring rain and windy.
HA, what a joke.
This morning it cleared off and was blue and the wind about stopped.
Dale Bush called a MAT with the first turn Waterville.
Getting off tow I took one from release all the way to base.
Then on the first leg under a normal looking Cu I had a climb that averaged 12.2 knots bottom to top! And smooth.
Then I flew up to the north to Peach Road and then lined up a cloudstreet going to the SE and went by Mansfield,Dry Falls Dam, Wilson Creek. All easy flying under a booming street. Then a little OD happened over Ephrata. I got the wild hair to fly thorough it and turned to the SW and flew to Red Naylor, Quincy Airport. On the way home I came back via Breezy Hills.
Good enough for 3rd and I moved up a place again. If we keep flying for another week I might make the podium at this rate!
Now at 6 PM its black and raining to the West, NW North and NE.
The next couple of days are suppose to get better i.e. warm up some and more normal post frontal soaring.
Great job today with the tasking group and CD to get us off our ass and out there and a quick launch, was fun to go flying!!
Good party happening tonight at the HQ everyone is in a good mood. More wine going down the hatch.

[[email protected]]

On Thursday, June 20, 2019 at 7:14:09 PM UTC-6, Nick Kennedy wrote:
> Well whoever forecasts the weather around here has got to be fired.

Nick- Weather forecasting is a bizarre form of pseudo-science that is unreliable, unintelligible and wrong on a regular basis. Think: Astrology, but with numbers.

[WaltWX[_2_]]

On Thursday, June 20, 2019 at 6:23:43 PM UTC-7, wrote:
> On Thursday, June 20, 2019 at 7:14:09 PM UTC-6, Nick Kennedy wrote:
> > Well whoever forecasts the weather around here has got to be fired.
>
> Nick- Weather forecasting is a bizarre form of pseudo-science that is unreliable, unintelligible and wrong on a regular basis. Think: Astrology, but with numbers.

I think you are mistaken about Weather forecasting. It is a science but requires careful analysis of the relevant factors for soaring. Managing our country from the White House "...is a bizarre form of pseudo-science that is unreliable, unintelligible and wrong on a regular basis. Think: Astrology, but with numbers"

Walt Rogers WX

[Dan Marotta]

On 6/21/2019 7:45 PM, WaltWX wrote:
> Managing our country from the White House
Boooo...Â* Hissssss...

Soaring, please.
--
Dan, 5J

[Eric Greenwell[_4_]]

wrote on 6/20/2019 6:23 PM:
> On Thursday, June 20, 2019 at 7:14:09 PM UTC-6, Nick Kennedy wrote:
>> Well whoever forecasts the weather around here has got to be fired.
>
> Nick- Weather forecasting is a bizarre form of pseudo-science that is unreliable, unintelligible and wrong on a regular basis. Think: Astrology, but with numbers.

A very outdated opinion. For several years now, maybe even earlier and starting
with Dr Jack's Blip maps, weather forecasting has been a vast improvement over the
earlier efforts. Products like Skysight, XC skies, and Top Meteo almost guide us
to the next cloud the day before we fly. Enjoy the Renaissance, because life is
better now!

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
- "Transponders in Sailplanes - Dec 2014a" also ADS-B, PCAS, Flarm

http://soaringsafety.org/prevention/Guide-to-transponders-in-sailplanes-2014A.pdf

[Mike C]

On Sunday, June 23, 2019 at 9:26:43 PM UTC-6, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> wrote on 6/20/2019 6:23 PM:
> > On Thursday, June 20, 2019 at 7:14:09 PM UTC-6, Nick Kennedy wrote:
> >> Well whoever forecasts the weather around here has got to be fired.
> >
> > Nick- Weather forecasting is a bizarre form of pseudo-science that is unreliable, unintelligible and wrong on a regular basis. Think: Astrology, but with numbers.
>
> A very outdated opinion. For several years now, maybe even earlier and starting
> with Dr Jack's Blip maps, weather forecasting has been a vast improvement over the
> earlier efforts. Products like Skysight, XC skies, and Top Meteo almost guide us
> to the next cloud the day before we fly. Enjoy the Renaissance, because life is
> better now!
>
> --
> Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
> - "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
> https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
> - "Transponders in Sailplanes - Dec 2014a" also ADS-B, PCAS, Flarm
>
> http://soaringsafety.org/prevention/Guide-to-transponders-in-sailplanes-2014A.pdf

Lots of misses at Moriarty this year with both XCSkies and SkySite. I think that maybe climate change is throwing the stability of the models off. Eight or nine years ago the NAM forecast was nearly always spot on. This year so far maybe 60-40. SkySite has been no better. It seems when a forecast is correct there is high praise, but silence when it thoroughly misses.

Mike