WaltWX[_2_]
July 2nd 19, 07:15 AM
The cirrus blowoff at Hobbs on DAY 7 and DAY 8 encouraged me to investigate how the HRRR model forecasts the cloud cover. Here's a pdf discussing this along with videos of how the model forecasted the thunderstorms and Total Cloud Cover:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/djcw4pfu9nk6nvv/HRRR_Model_TotalCloudCover_and_Thunderstorms.pdf?r aw=1
For easy reference here's the GOES-16 sat imagery videos
DAY 7
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2rrdqjvfryhvkjo/Hobbs_DAY7_20190626_GOES-16_Radar.mp4?raw=1
DAY 8
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0vxeixzdorq6dvq/Hobbs_DAY8_20190627_GOES-16.mp4?raw=1
CONCLUSIONS
Yes, it did forecast the cirrus blowoff.. but was too slow in moving toward Hobbs. So, I wouldn't rely on it for tasking with any detailed planning. It just indicates a higher risk day for completing a task.
Walt Rogers WX
https://www.dropbox.com/s/djcw4pfu9nk6nvv/HRRR_Model_TotalCloudCover_and_Thunderstorms.pdf?r aw=1
For easy reference here's the GOES-16 sat imagery videos
DAY 7
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2rrdqjvfryhvkjo/Hobbs_DAY7_20190626_GOES-16_Radar.mp4?raw=1
DAY 8
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0vxeixzdorq6dvq/Hobbs_DAY8_20190627_GOES-16.mp4?raw=1
CONCLUSIONS
Yes, it did forecast the cirrus blowoff.. but was too slow in moving toward Hobbs. So, I wouldn't rely on it for tasking with any detailed planning. It just indicates a higher risk day for completing a task.
Walt Rogers WX