View Full Version : Soaring already DOA for the season???
Matt Herron Jr.
March 23rd 20, 12:42 AM
Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
George Haeh
March 23rd 20, 02:29 AM
There may be a lull in infections in the May-June time frame and perhaps an easing of controls until the second wave hits September-October.
Some research is showing that temperature >17C and/or absolute humidity >9g / m³ inhibits transmission.
We'll know more as the Summer proceeds.
There's a bunch of Canadian snowbirds rushing back from California through Florida a month or two prematurely when they may have been smarter to stay put.
This Fall may be a good time for us older folk to decamp to warmer and sultry climes provided you can find a flight, health insurance coverage and accommodating border officials.
5Z
March 23rd 20, 03:35 AM
Another thing to keep in mind is that all medical personnel will be busy dealing with sick people, so any accidents we may have while having fun will be adding unnecessary stress on the system. So unnecessary driving and any other potentially dangerous activities should be kept to a minimum.
Lots of collateral effects with this pandemic.
5Z
glidergeek
March 23rd 20, 02:16 PM
I'd think 200' of tow rope would be enough social distancing.
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 10:16:22 AM UTC-4, Glidergeek wrote:
> I'd think 200' of tow rope would be enough social distancing.
We have lengthened our tow ropes to 206'
Weirsdale Glider Club
Matt Herron Jr.
March 23rd 20, 04:34 PM
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:42:56 PM UTC-7, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
As a group, we are for the most part, experts at coming up with procedures and checklists that improve safety. Perhaps we can put methods in place for assembly, launch, retrieval, etc. that reduce the chances of spreading the virus, even after restrictions may be lifted.
For example, hold the wing a little farther from the tip when handing it off to an assistant during assembly. Don't approach someone's cockpit (occupied, or not) without verbal OK. keep the cockpit window shut as you are hooked up for launch. gloves for ground crews? Pay your tow bill by mail rather than in the office.
I am sure this talented group can come up with lots of practical ideas to protect ourselves. As a group we tend to skew older and male, both higher risk groups for Covid-19 infection. Perhaps we can still enjoy what we do without adding any more risk to the sport.
Matt
Dan Marotta
March 23rd 20, 04:42 PM
ABQ Soaring and Sundance Aviation at Moriarty were both conducting
training flights yesterday.* I'm sure their folks were taking adequate
precautions.* Power flying activities were also going on and, as soon as
I see a relatively decent soaring forecast (given the season), I'll take
the Stemme up.* Of course, I don't need to interact with anyone to get
airborne or put away.* Luckily...
On 3/22/2020 6:42 PM, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
--
Dan, 5J
James Metcalfe
March 23rd 20, 04:44 PM
> I'd think 200' of tow rope would be enough social distancing.
>...
>We have lengthened our tow ropes to 206'
>Weirsdale Glider Club
Aw c'mon! The ship spoiled for a ha'p'orth of tar: a further 6.74 ins
required to get the 2 metres!
AS
March 23rd 20, 04:51 PM
> As a group, we are for the most part, experts at coming up with procedures and checklists that improve safety. Perhaps we can put methods in place for assembly, launch, retrieval, etc. that reduce the chances of spreading the virus, even after restrictions may be lifted.
>
> For example, hold the wing a little farther from the tip when handing it off to an assistant during assembly. Don't approach someone's cockpit (occupied, or not) without verbal OK. keep the cockpit window shut as you are hooked up for launch. gloves for ground crews? Pay your tow bill by mail rather than in the office.
>
> I am sure this talented group can come up with lots of practical ideas to protect ourselves. As a group we tend to skew older and male, both higher risk groups for Covid-19 infection. Perhaps we can still enjoy what we do without adding any more risk to the sport.
>
> Matt
If the glider is being used by multiple pilots/passengers, i.e. a club trainer, the controls, belt-buckles, canopy lock, microphone, etc. could/should be wiped down with a disinfecting wipe. Takes a minute to do and will add a layer of protection.
Uli
'AS'
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
March 23rd 20, 05:07 PM
Matt Herron Jr. wrote on 3/23/2020 9:34 AM:
> On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:42:56 PM UTC-7, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
>> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
>
> As a group, we are for the most part, experts at coming up with procedures and checklists that improve safety. Perhaps we can put methods in place for assembly, launch, retrieval, etc. that reduce the chances of spreading the virus, even after restrictions may be lifted.
>
> For example, hold the wing a little farther from the tip when handing it off to an assistant during assembly. Don't approach someone's cockpit (occupied, or not) without verbal OK. keep the cockpit window shut as you are hooked up for launch. gloves for ground crews? Pay your tow bill by mail rather than in the office.
>
> I am sure this talented group can come up with lots of practical ideas to protect ourselves. As a group we tend to skew older and male, both higher risk groups for Covid-19 infection. Perhaps we can still enjoy what we do without adding any more risk to the sport.
"Honey, the nation calls us to action in these perilous times. It is our duty to
get a motorglider to achieve the social distancing that is required from all of us."
Later...
"Honey, just an FYI: I got us a motorhome so we can shelter-in-place at the
gliderport, where I will keep our new motorglider."
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
Dan Marotta
March 23rd 20, 05:10 PM
This is from a friend who is a physician, passed on with permission.* I
chose to keep his identity private.
Of course you can share!
It's all info from reputable sources: WHO, Reuters, CDC.
On Monday, March 23, 2020, 10:30:01 AM MDT, Dan Marotta
> wrote:
Excellent analysis, thanks!
And, as we just discussed on the phone, I am doing all of the
recommended things, not out of fear but out of a sense of personal
preservation.* I understand that there are people who, out of a sense of
bravado will do stupid, even destructive things.
May I share what you've written to me?* I'll keep your identity private.
Dan
On 3/23/2020 9:54 AM, *** wrote:
We have a vaccine for the flu. The mortality for the flu is 0.1%
We don't have a vaccine for this. It's mortality is 2-4%.
The Chinese shut down a city of 11 million people...
The Italians are rationing care....
You need scary data? Check out Reuters Global covid tracker. Check out
the curves on the number of cases per country. check out the overall
mortality.
People have good reason to be scared and the fear is good. Fear makes
people isolate themselves and decrease the speed of spread.
The opposite, people that carry on like nothing is happening, will
overwhelm your healthcare system. If that happens, we won't have enough
ventilators, enough personal protection equipment, or enough providers.
People will then start dying of routine conditions (in addition to the
coronavirus) that they easily survived before (with appropriate care).
For example if all our ICU's are packed with people on ventilators
because of coronavirus and you have a heart attack there is no ICU for
you....If there are no hospital beds available because of the virus,
someone with a bowel obstruction (treated with IVF's in 98% of cases)
will perish because of lack of services. If your surgeon is sick and you
have appendicitis, you'll die from another routine condition...
In all honesty, I think we lost control of the situation a few weeks ago
(ie new york), I would expect complete chaos in the next 3 months. This
will include curfews, strict enforcement of quarantines, and overall
disregard for our civil rights.At this late stage, even this is not
going to prevent the massive loss of life. Unless the virus changes or
there are some seasonal effects expect 1-2 million american deaths in
the next 12 months.
Hope I'm wrong...
On 3/22/2020 9:35 PM, 5Z wrote:
> Another thing to keep in mind is that all medical personnel will be busy dealing with sick people, so any accidents we may have while having fun will be adding unnecessary stress on the system. So unnecessary driving and any other potentially dangerous activities should be kept to a minimum.
>
> Lots of collateral effects with this pandemic.
>
> 5Z
--
Dan, 5J
Richard DalCanto
March 23rd 20, 06:28 PM
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 6:42:56 PM UTC-6, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
Flight schools pose a problem because of social distancing. Current pilots with their own gliders can enjoy the best social distancing on the planet. No viruses in the air at 18,000 feet inside our private bubbles. 200 ft tow rope. Just need to avoid the chit-chat at the field before flying. Everyone stays with their own glider. And don't kiss your tow pilot before your flight....
krasw
March 23rd 20, 06:44 PM
On Monday, 23 March 2020 18:51:19 UTC+2, AS wrote:
> > As a group, we are for the most part, experts at coming up with procedures and checklists that improve safety. Perhaps we can put methods in place for assembly, launch, retrieval, etc. that reduce the chances of spreading the virus, even after restrictions may be lifted.
> >
> > For example, hold the wing a little farther from the tip when handing it off to an assistant during assembly. Don't approach someone's cockpit (occupied, or not) without verbal OK. keep the cockpit window shut as you are hooked up for launch. gloves for ground crews? Pay your tow bill by mail rather than in the office.
> >
> > I am sure this talented group can come up with lots of practical ideas to protect ourselves. As a group we tend to skew older and male, both higher risk groups for Covid-19 infection. Perhaps we can still enjoy what we do without adding any more risk to the sport.
> >
> > Matt
>
> If the glider is being used by multiple pilots/passengers, i.e. a club trainer, the controls, belt-buckles, canopy lock, microphone, etc. could/should be wiped down with a disinfecting wipe. Takes a minute to do and will add a layer of protection.
>
> Uli
> 'AS'
Any two people flying tandem two-seater will share every single virus in there systems instantly. You just need to breathe and normal glider ventilation distributes every droplet you exhale instantly.
AS
March 23rd 20, 07:40 PM
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 2:44:39 PM UTC-4, krasw wrote:
> On Monday, 23 March 2020 18:51:19 UTC+2, AS wrote:
> > > As a group, we are for the most part, experts at coming up with procedures and checklists that improve safety. Perhaps we can put methods in place for assembly, launch, retrieval, etc. that reduce the chances of spreading the virus, even after restrictions may be lifted.
> > >
> > > For example, hold the wing a little farther from the tip when handing it off to an assistant during assembly. Don't approach someone's cockpit (occupied, or not) without verbal OK. keep the cockpit window shut as you are hooked up for launch. gloves for ground crews? Pay your tow bill by mail rather than in the office.
> > >
> > > I am sure this talented group can come up with lots of practical ideas to protect ourselves. As a group we tend to skew older and male, both higher risk groups for Covid-19 infection. Perhaps we can still enjoy what we do without adding any more risk to the sport.
> > >
> > > Matt
> >
> > If the glider is being used by multiple pilots/passengers, i.e. a club trainer, the controls, belt-buckles, canopy lock, microphone, etc. could/should be wiped down with a disinfecting wipe. Takes a minute to do and will add a layer of protection.
> >
> > Uli
> > 'AS'
>
> Any two people flying tandem two-seater will share every single virus in there systems instantly. You just need to breathe and normal glider ventilation distributes every droplet you exhale instantly.
Of course! I used the wrong verbiage - should have been more specific and said 'Club Ship' as in single seat; not two- or three-seater.
Uli
'AS'
Matt Herron Jr.
March 23rd 20, 10:58 PM
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 11:29:02 AM UTC-7, Richard DalCanto wrote:
> On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 6:42:56 PM UTC-6, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> > Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
>
> Flight schools pose a problem because of social distancing. Current pilots with their own gliders can enjoy the best social distancing on the planet. No viruses in the air at 18,000 feet inside our private bubbles. 200 ft tow rope. Just need to avoid the chit-chat at the field before flying. Everyone stays with their own glider. And don't kiss your tow pilot before your flight....
Agreed, but the facility has to be open for you to request a tow...
Rich Owen[_2_]
March 23rd 20, 11:56 PM
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Seminole-Lake was very lucky to get the Senior Soaring Championship complete last week. Even with extraordinary precautions, it was a very close call.. If it was this week, we would have cancelled. Right now Seminole is only towing private ships, no instruction or rides. I might hold a XC camp for clubs in Florida limited to 5 pilots. Bring your single seater, and I’ll have 1 slot in a DG-1000T. Ground school in a wide open environment will be done. It will only last during a weekend, maybe Friday thru Sunday. The weather has been great, and anyone wanting to do badge flying, come on down. However, we do have restrictions on social distancing and contact with employees. If your interested, contact me at .
son_of_flubber
March 26th 20, 11:16 PM
Assuming medical resources are in short supply, who goes to the front of the Triage line? The mother whose kid brought COVID-19 home from preschool, or the glider pilot who has a car accident on his way home from a gliding competition?
I’ll take my chances. I got the same odds every time I drive. I’m sure as hell not going to live life due to fear. I don’t have many years left as it is.
Dan
Mike N.
March 27th 20, 01:38 AM
Worth a read...
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/?fbclid=IwAR0ds_-SIUhdykEqoBsL4KyCXiZiEzzRkGXarsQPKyfhLIxYnz_oyZp6z 5U
Andrzej Kobus
March 27th 20, 02:12 AM
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:38:58 PM UTC-4, Mike N. wrote:
> Worth a read...
>
> https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/?fbclid=IwAR0ds_-SIUhdykEqoBsL4KyCXiZiEzzRkGXarsQPKyfhLIxYnz_oyZp6z 5U
Tell that to the 26 year old healthy young man who is in coma due to COVID or the 36 year old Principal from NYC, who passed away, no this is not just affecting old people who would die anyway. We only had 137 cases in NH today and 30 of them required hospitalization. That is a high hospitalization %.
Mike N.
March 27th 20, 02:25 AM
I'm not interested in debating this. Read the article and draw your own conclusions.
The point of the article is that the models of infection and death rate have been skewed to high.
It is certainly tragic to lose people to disease whether it be Covid-19 or influenza, etc.
Duster[_2_]
March 27th 20, 05:41 AM
Mike,
I heard this news broadcast earlier today. Glad you posted it here as I think as many people as possible should read it, if nothing else but to calm those put into a panic because of these outrageous predictions that are not based on reasonable models. Those figures were the ones California’s governor Newsom used to argue that 765,000 deaths would occur in that one state alone over the next 7 weeks. There are other epidemiological studies out there that have more credible modeling criterion and I hope they get widely published soon.
George Haeh
March 27th 20, 06:01 AM
The survivors (percentage to be determined) will see in the next couple months which forecasts were closest.
My forecast is that certain jurisdictions will keep the lid on and others will see a runaway.
It looks to me that the Federalist report is deeply flawed in its understanding. It is in fact as a result of the strict suppression measures introduced in the UK the last few days, and also the ongoing increase in ICU capacity, that it is hoped to keep the UK mortality below 20,000 and those measures were partly informed by the Imperial College report. So it's an updated prediction from Neil Ferguson in the light of the practical responses to the ICL study and not a roll back. I hope he is right.
For an objective report of his evidence look at the New Scientist or The Times. It is hard to understand how any competent news reporter could have genuinely so misunderstood this.
Scott Liebling
March 27th 20, 01:08 PM
It's why I won't ride my motorcycle during this pandemic. While I'm reasonably certain that nothing would happen, I wouldn't want to be "that guy" who piles on an already overburdened health care system just in case something did happen.
Dave Nadler
March 27th 20, 01:30 PM
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 10:29:27 PM UTC-4, George Haeh wrote:
> There may be a lull in infections in the May-June time frame...
I assume you're talking about USA here. If so,probably not, as we are:
1) still extremely testing limited
2) not doing wide testing, tracking, or mandatory quarantine of anyone exposed
Those measures are why China has controlled this but we can't.
Two really good write-ups if you are interested in the epidemiology:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
These do not address two other important reasons USA is having difficulty:
- CDC and FDA testing screw-ups
- Closure of USA CDC's China pandemic office before this happened
Each of these likely wasted precious time for recognition and containment.
Unfortunately, this will likely get worse for a while.
Hope that helps for those of you scientifically inclined,
Best Regards, Dave
According to today's Albuquerque Journal newspaper, 8,513 people have been tested, with 136 positive instances of COVID-19 infection in New Mexico. THIRTEEN (13) have been hospitalized and one (1) has died. In a state with a population of 2 million.
If this qualifies as an "overburdened" health care system, I shudder to think what will happen when a REAL pandemic with a serious infection and fatality rate occurs. The government will once again order lockdowns and shutdowns, but the public will remember what happened the last time they cried "WOLF!" And then the S will REALLY HTF.
Markm so true. As I dictate this I am on my way to our gliderport dragging up my tractor to mow (county isnt mowing now), then were gonna fly today n this weekend. No two place, no instruction, no contact. I don’t have to interact with a single soul on the way up or back, don’t need gas or lunch. So my chance of infecting anyone is dang near zero. I think many other clubs who are not in viral epicenters can do the same.
Dan
BobWa43
March 27th 20, 02:47 PM
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 8:42:56 PM UTC-4, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
Keep the faith Matt. It would appear that the current numbers being reported do not support the doomsday scenarios. There may be hope for soaring this season.
Dan Marotta
March 27th 20, 05:45 PM
All of these cases are tragic but so many people and outlets use the
exception, rather than the rule, to state their case.
Just because one 26 year old gets the virus and requires hospitalization
does not mean that all, most, or even many will do likewise.* It also
does not mean that it won't happen.
Judge for yourself, make your own decisions, live (or die) by the
consequences.* I'll continue to fly and to ride my motorcycle.* I'll
also wash my hands more often.* Those are my decisions.* And I don't
want any crap about my risking the lives of others.* My location and
life style keep me from coming in contact with other people.* If you
live in New Jersey, you need to be more stringent than I do living in
the mountains of New Mexico.
On 3/26/2020 8:12 PM, Andrzej Kobus wrote:
> On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:38:58 PM UTC-4, Mike N. wrote:
>> Worth a read...
>>
>> https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/?fbclid=IwAR0ds_-SIUhdykEqoBsL4KyCXiZiEzzRkGXarsQPKyfhLIxYnz_oyZp6z 5U
> Tell that to the 26 year old healthy young man who is in coma due to COVID or the 36 year old Principal from NYC, who passed away, no this is not just affecting old people who would die anyway. We only had 137 cases in NH today and 30 of them required hospitalization. That is a high hospitalization %.
--
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
March 27th 20, 05:47 PM
How long ago did Newsome make that claim?* What's the current count?*
What's a reasonable projection for the stated 7 weeks?
On 3/26/2020 11:41 PM, Duster wrote:
> Mike,
> I heard this news broadcast earlier today. Glad you posted it here as I think as many people as possible should read it, if nothing else but to calm those put into a panic because of these outrageous predictions that are not based on reasonable models. Those figures were the ones California’s governor Newsom used to argue that 765,000 deaths would occur in that one state alone over the next 7 weeks. There are other epidemiological studies out there that have more credible modeling criterion and I hope they get widely published soon.
--
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
March 27th 20, 05:52 PM
I just received an email from the New Mexico Pilots Association. They
queried the governor's office about private flying and the response was
positive for solo and flights with family members. Now, if only the
weather would cooperate!
On 3/27/2020 8:47 AM, BobWa43 wrote:
> On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 8:42:56 PM UTC-4, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
>> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
> Keep the faith Matt. It would appear that the current numbers being reported do not support the doomsday scenarios. There may be hope for soaring this season.
--
Dan, 5J
Duster[_2_]
March 27th 20, 06:45 PM
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 12:47:35 PM UTC-5, Dan Marotta wrote:
> How long ago did Newsome make that claim?* What's the current count?*
> What's a reasonable projection for the stated 7 weeks?
> Dan, 5J
From Newsom's letter to Trump dated March 18: "We project that roughly 56% of our population - 25.5 million people - will be infected with the virus over an 8 week period." Note that the gov uses the term "will be" not "could/might be". https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.18.20-Letter-USNS-Mercy-Hospital-Ship.pdf
And at approx 3% mortality (today, the death rate is more like 1.5%), that equates to 765,000 deaths in California. Expanded to the entire US; 5,544,000 deaths.
To answer your other questions, particularly on the use of more reasonable models (no citations from bloggers): https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mathematics-life-and-death-how-disease-models-shape-national-shutdowns-and-other
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-coronavirus-numbers-newsom-trump-15144169.php
https://www.france24.com/en/20200320-california-governor-orders-entire-state-to-stay-at-home
Richard DalCanto
March 27th 20, 09:01 PM
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 7:41:14 AM UTC-6, wrote:
> According to today's Albuquerque Journal newspaper, 8,513 people have been tested, with 136 positive instances of COVID-19 infection in New Mexico. THIRTEEN (13) have been hospitalized and one (1) has died. In a state with a population of 2 million.
>
> If this qualifies as an "overburdened" health care system, I shudder to think what will happen when a REAL pandemic with a serious infection and fatality rate occurs. The government will once again order lockdowns and shutdowns, but the public will remember what happened the last time they cried "WOLF!" And then the S will REALLY HTF.
Mark, I think you need to watch Nightly News with Lestor Holt tonight. I'm sure they will cover New York and other hotspots, so you can understand what happens to the health care system if the virus is allowed to spread quickly. Even 5% of people age 20-30 need hospital care to live, and the numbers go up dramatically with age. With patients needing ventilators for 2-3 weeks, it is not hard to understand how the system can get quickly over whelmed. The cause of death in many patients is Cardiomyopathy, or heart damage and failure. 20% of people, who are hospitalized and live, have permanent heart damage, on top those who have lung scaring from the severe pneumonia.
son_of_flubber
March 28th 20, 12:30 AM
Looking at the present crisis in NYC, the government there rolled out contact-restrictions much too slowly.
It seems silly to take my cues as to what is presently safe and appropriate behavior from a foot-dragging government that has a conflicted agenda.
To draw a parallel with flying, following the FAR perfectly does not make you safe. To manage risk, you need to make your own go/no_go decisions and set your own 'personal minimums'. Rules that are perceived to be too restrictive may be disregarded (at least by glider pilots). Likewise with contact-restrictions.
I bought an N100 mask a year ago. I wore it on an 18 hour commercial flight last Monday-Tuesday (26 hours door to door with layovers). I'm pretty sure that everyone will be asked to wear a mask when there enough to go around..
krasw
March 28th 20, 11:03 AM
On Friday, 27 March 2020 15:41:14 UTC+2, wrote:
> According to today's Albuquerque Journal newspaper, 8,513 people have been tested, with 136 positive instances of COVID-19 infection in New Mexico. THIRTEEN (13) have been hospitalized and one (1) has died. In a state with a population of 2 million.
>
> If this qualifies as an "overburdened" health care system, I shudder to think what will happen when a REAL pandemic with a serious infection and fatality rate occurs. The government will once again order lockdowns and shutdowns, but the public will remember what happened the last time they cried "WOLF!" And then the S will REALLY HTF.
In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000 inhabitants. That is 0.0002% of the population.
I know of three different offices, mine included (20-100 people working each) that have 15% of the workforce currently sick with all the corona symptoms.
The reason between this 0,0002% and 15% discrepancy is simple: they have not tested the whole population.
James Metcalfe
March 28th 20, 01:33 PM
At 11:03 28 March 2020, krasw wrote:
>In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000
>inhabitants. That is 0.0002% of the population.
Ahem! That's 0.02%
J.
We’re not quite dead yet!
Took care of mowing duties at the gliderport yesterday and then proceeded to make a few tows. We’re only doing solo flights, keeping our distance and doing just fine.
Better figure this thing out now as this is the new normal. Unless you want to just sit in your house for the next six months, order takeout n home delivery. You have a bigger chance of infection there than you do flying your ship.
Dan
> In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000
In the US, 300M/100k is one per 3000, but to get there, it has been increasing at a steady 1.3 per day for the last 4 weeks. It seems clear that in some parts of the country, we need to do considerably more.
Dave's second link has a lot of guesses instead of real data, but seems refreshingly logically consistent in terms of a plan.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
In short, 1.3 needs to be below 0.5 for a few weeks, then maybe .9 until there is a vaccine. Getting to 0.5 would require significant limits like one trip outside per household every few days. Social distancing with two way masks (N95 protect only the wearer) and a new social norm of situational awareness and sanitation.
In this world, unnecessary extra risk factors like flying are not even on the table until the 0.9 stage.
The only hope would be that there are verifiable, drastically different stats in some parts of the country which puts them in the 0.9 stage already.
I'd like to see a more optimistic logical prognosis so I can go flying, but what is coming from the Whitehouse seems the reverse.
Dan Marotta
March 28th 20, 03:54 PM
We can fly in New Mexico.* I have a self launcher and need not see
another person.* If I have an accident, that's on me (over 47 years
without an accident).* (Un)fortunately, the weather is not to my liking.
On 3/28/2020 9:05 AM, wrote:
>> In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000
> In the US, 300M/100k is one per 3000, but to get there, it has been increasing at a steady 1.3 per day for the last 4 weeks. It seems clear that in some parts of the country, we need to do considerably more.
>
> Dave's second link has a lot of guesses instead of real data, but seems refreshingly logically consistent in terms of a plan.
>
> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
>
> In short, 1.3 needs to be below 0.5 for a few weeks, then maybe .9 until there is a vaccine. Getting to 0.5 would require significant limits like one trip outside per household every few days. Social distancing with two way masks (N95 protect only the wearer) and a new social norm of situational awareness and sanitation.
>
> In this world, unnecessary extra risk factors like flying are not even on the table until the 0.9 stage.
>
> The only hope would be that there are verifiable, drastically different stats in some parts of the country which puts them in the 0.9 stage already.
>
> I'd like to see a more optimistic logical prognosis so I can go flying, but what is coming from the Whitehouse seems the reverse.
--
Dan, 5J
5Z
March 28th 20, 04:11 PM
How to tell if we're beating Covid-19.
Great explanation of how to understand the numbers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc
5Z
Mike the Strike
March 28th 20, 04:41 PM
Here in Arizona, golf courses and gun stores are listed under "essential services" and are currently open, so it's hard to see how a gliding club could be a much worse risk. TUSC is officially closed, but open for flying to members taking suitable distancing precautions. One commercial glider operation is still open for launches but has suspended training. Few restrictions on those capable of self-launching.
However, coronavirus infections are currently expanding exponentially in Arizona at a rate faster than the national average (a factor of ten increase each week) and it's likely we may see further restrictions soon.
Mike
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 4:41:31 PM UTC, Mike the Strike wrote:
> Here in Arizona, golf courses and gun stores are listed under "essential services" and are currently open, so it's hard to see how a gliding club could be a much worse risk. TUSC is officially closed, but open for flying to members taking suitable distancing precautions. One commercial glider operation is still open for launches but has suspended training. Few restrictions on those capable of self-launching.
>
> However, coronavirus infections are currently expanding exponentially in Arizona at a rate faster than the national average (a factor of ten increase each week) and it's likely we may see further restrictions soon.
>
> Mike
Gun stores?!
Thats an absolute neccessity! I’ve got all the ammo I need however.
Dan
Jonathan St. Cloud
March 28th 20, 09:54 PM
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 10:21:56 AM UTC-7, wrote:
> On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 4:41:31 PM UTC, Mike the Strike wrote:
> > Here in Arizona, golf courses and gun stores are listed under "essential services" and are currently open, so it's hard to see how a gliding club could be a much worse risk. TUSC is officially closed, but open for flying to members taking suitable distancing precautions. One commercial glider operation is still open for launches but has suspended training. Few restrictions on those capable of self-launching.
> >
> > However, coronavirus infections are currently expanding exponentially in Arizona at a rate faster than the national average (a factor of ten increase each week) and it's likely we may see further restrictions soon.
> >
> > Mike
>
> Gun stores?!
In San Diego County, liquor, pot and gun stores are all considered essential. Not by me, but by some set of state, county and local government. One would think we could bribe a better class of governance.
Roy B.
March 28th 20, 11:46 PM
I need my guns to protect my horde of toilet paper
:-)
ROY
Duster[_2_]
March 29th 20, 03:19 AM
A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
5Z
March 29th 20, 04:09 AM
Interesting article about the 1918 flu pandemic.
"...The studies reached another important conclusion: That relaxing intervention measures too early could cause an otherwise stabilized city to relapse. St. Louis, for example, was so emboldened by its low death rate that the city lifted restrictions on public gatherings less than two months after the outbreak began. A rash of new cases soon followed. Of the cities that kept interventions in place, none experienced a second wave of high death rates."
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
I also heard that the cities with the flattest curves and most strict measures were in a better position to recover financially. Probably due to more people able to work and more people to buy the products, etc...
5Z
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
March 29th 20, 04:44 AM
Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>
> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>
> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
That article is not accessible without paying. Not a good policy for the
newspaper, I think. A few free articles a month could build their circulation.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
kinsell
March 29th 20, 05:27 AM
On 3/28/20 9:44 PM, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>>
>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by
>> orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs
>> it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and
>> physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the
>> empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>>
>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>>
>
> That article is not accessible without paying. Not a good policy for the
> newspaper, I think. A few free articles a month could build their
> circulation.
>
>
Worked for me without a subscription. Clear your cookies or try a
different computer.
Duster[_2_]
March 29th 20, 05:37 AM
This link has the essentials of the full WSJ article
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-professors-claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate?_amp=true
Mike the Strike
March 29th 20, 06:23 AM
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 9:37:35 PM UTC-7, Duster wrote:
> This link has the essentials of the full WSJ article
>
> https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-professors-claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate?_amp=true
Reports from the UK say much the same about unidentified cases, speculating that they could be 10 to 100 times greater than the confirmed cases. They have now identified that the disease was spreading in England in mid January and could have led to over 10,000 cases before the first one was identified a month or so later. There could have been around 100,000 cases in Britain at the beginning of March. I was there then!
In late February and early March, I, my wife and sister-in-law all went down with flu-like symptoms eerily similar to those reported for coronavirus. My wife and I had travelled from TUS via LAX and LHR, picking up a rental car in London. Sure, it could have been regular flu or some other virus, but I am actually hoping it was the new one and that I now have some immunity.
Not sure I'd want to be the one opening up society, though!
Mike
Richard DalCanto
March 29th 20, 02:22 PM
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 8:19:43 PM UTC-6, Duster wrote:
> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>
> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>
> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
That author is assuming a very large denominator in order to make his conclusions, but there is plenty of data to show he is completely wrong. In the US they are only testing people with symptoms who think they have the virus, yet 90% come back negative. In Italy, if you look at health care workers that are exposed and test positive, the death rate is orders of magnitude higher than this idiot suggests. Many people seem to forget that there is a 2-4 week delay between diagnosis and death. So to get an accurate death rate you need to look at the death rate on a certain day, and then look at the positive test rates from 3 weeks prior.
Richard DalCanto MD, PhD
Richard DalCanto
March 29th 20, 02:24 PM
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 11:23:47 PM UTC-6, Mike the Strike wrote:
> On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 9:37:35 PM UTC-7, Duster wrote:
> > This link has the essentials of the full WSJ article
> >
> > https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-professors-claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate?_amp=true
>
> Reports from the UK say much the same about unidentified cases, speculating that they could be 10 to 100 times greater than the confirmed cases. They have now identified that the disease was spreading in England in mid January and could have led to over 10,000 cases before the first one was identified a month or so later. There could have been around 100,000 cases in Britain at the beginning of March. I was there then!
>
> In late February and early March, I, my wife and sister-in-law all went down with flu-like symptoms eerily similar to those reported for coronavirus.. My wife and I had travelled from TUS via LAX and LHR, picking up a rental car in London. Sure, it could have been regular flu or some other virus, but I am actually hoping it was the new one and that I now have some immunity.
>
> Not sure I'd want to be the one opening up society, though!
>
> Mike
In the US they are only testing people with symptoms who think they have it, but 90% or so come back negative. So chances are you did NOT have Covid-19, but rather the common cold or flu.
John Godfrey (QT)[_2_]
March 29th 20, 02:24 PM
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 8:42:56 PM UTC-4, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
I remain amazed at the number of people who don't get that the real issue is the silent transmission by infected but unaware people. Talking about the "risk to me" or "areas that are not hotspots" completely misses the essence of the problem we are dealing with.
>A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read
> >
> > https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-professors-claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate?_amp=true
>
Thanks for a link that is open.
I find the article's numbers plausible, but take issue with the conclusion.
The published death rate was 0.3% to 3% of confirmed cases depending on available health care. These guys point out that there are lots (maybe 10x?) of unconfirmed cases so the overall rate is .06%. So maybe loosening restrictions makes economic sense.
Judging by how delayed restrictions worked out for health care systems in other countries, seems like a bad plan. Especially for old guys and health care workers.
10x more victims every 8 days is a target rich environment for the virus. These ratios apply no matter if the state had few or many cases.
This doesn't have to mean draconian measures, but you have to think. Kids in NYC are still collecting in playgrounds. I saw somebody walking their dog in HD yesterday. Masks are not the norm. Folks need to act as if everybody has the virus so few will. It feels like the reverse.
How is the soaring in Sweden? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/as-the-rest-of-europe-lives-under-lockdown-sweden-keeps-calm-and-carries-on
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
March 29th 20, 04:10 PM
kinsell wrote on 3/28/2020 9:27 PM:
> On 3/28/20 9:44 PM, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>>>
>>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of
>>> magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the
>>> economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should
>>> undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current
>>> lockdowns.
>>>
>>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>>>
>>
>> That article is not accessible without paying. Not a good policy for the
>> newspaper, I think. A few free articles a month could build their circulation.
>>
>>
> *Worked for me without a subscription.* Clear your cookies or try a different
> computer.
I've tried three browsers, clearing everything, but with the same results. What
browser did you use?
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
Roy B.
March 29th 20, 04:21 PM
Eric:
Many of the news sources (like wsj) give prospective subscribers 3 or 4 free inline articles before they must subscribe or be blocked out. You might be over your limit of free articles. It is intentionally designed to be frustrating - so that you are forced to subscribe.
ROY
> How is the soaring in Sweden?
Hopefully pretty good. We could get there also if we stopped giving the virus a target rich environment like they did.
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
March 29th 20, 04:32 PM
Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>
> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>
> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns totaling about
250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
Covid infections are increasing.
Here's the deal for me:
- we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
- we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
- we don't have a vaccine
- we don't have a treatment
- at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
precautions.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:32:23 AM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
> > A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
> >
> > Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
> > Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
> >
> > https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>
> I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns totaling about
> 250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
> deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
> Covid infections are increasing.
>
> Here's the deal for me:
> - we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
> - we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
> - we don't have a vaccine
> - we don't have a treatment
> - at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
>
> I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
> precautions.
>
> --
> Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
> - "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
> https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
Maybe it would be better to quarantine the high risk population and let everyone else party on. Covidoomers say we are all going to get it anyway, so let the strong get it without stopping the world. And the infirm can come out when all is clear. Or everyone else is dead and they have the planet to themselves.
kinsell
March 29th 20, 05:19 PM
On 3/29/20 9:10 AM, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> kinsell wrote on 3/28/2020 9:27 PM:
>> On 3/28/20 9:44 PM, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>>> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>>>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a
>>>> read:
>>>>
>>>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>>>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high
>>>> by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the
>>>> costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and
>>>> physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the
>>>> empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>>>>
>>>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>>>>
>>>
>>> That article is not accessible without paying. Not a good policy for
>>> the newspaper, I think. A few free articles a month could build their
>>> circulation.
>>>
>>>
>> **Worked for me without a subscription.* Clear your cookies or try a
>> different computer.
>
> I've tried three browsers, clearing everything, but with the same
> results. What browser did you use?
>
I'm on Firefox running on Linux, but there's nothing magical about that.
Frequently hit the "you've reached your free limit" error when trying
to read articles on other subjects, such as Boeing. Usually can boot a
different OS on the same computer to get around that.
Stephen Szikora
March 29th 20, 05:22 PM
Haves and have nots ... what else is new.
Jonathan St. Cloud
March 29th 20, 05:48 PM
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:42:56 PM UTC-7, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
Here is the real answer! Russians and Kieth Richards: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWN1CAD5P_g&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR2YF4L1UeSnFBoO2hKDcB0HJurBszNKLr6j59m9_ oSPrs2NPlVqnYkfeIg
Dan Marotta
March 29th 20, 05:49 PM
:-D* Oh, Jonathan...!
On 3/28/2020 3:54 PM, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
> One would think we could bribe a better class of governance.
--
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
March 29th 20, 05:51 PM
Folks in my neck of the woods have literally thousands of rounds of
ammunition.* In California they would be called crazies, and their
hoards, "arsenals".* In Arizona or Texas, they'd be called pikers who've
made a nice start, but need more focus and attention to detail.
On 3/28/2020 5:46 PM, Roy B. wrote:
> I need my guns to protect my horde of toilet paper
> :-)
> ROY
--
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
March 29th 20, 06:03 PM
I'm not a subscriber to WSJ (so I couldn't read the article), but my
concern throughout all of this is that nowhere have I seen, heard, or
read a plausible reason for these exceptional measures considering the
death tolls from previous epidemics and pandemics such as Bird Flu,
Swine Flu, Ebola, etc.* Sure, I'm being hygienic, and not joining public
gatherings, but the death tolls from the above mentioned diseases seem
to be to have been much higher and there was never any sort of panic
like that we're experiencing now.
Please, someone, make some sense of it to me.* And giving me panic
speeches about how bad it /could/ be in light of experience with
pandemics of the past 30 years or so won't carry much weight.
On 3/28/2020 8:19 PM, Duster wrote:
> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>
> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>
> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
--
Dan, 5J
Dan thats about all your gonna get on here. Most of what I see is “doom-gloom” prognostigation. Irregardless of the serious nature of dealing with this particular strain of virus, folks are definitely Using this “crisis” to push socialist political agendas.
P.s. I’ve got my ammo lol
Dan Marotta
March 29th 20, 06:20 PM
Nah...* The same information is available through multiple sources. Just
look and you'll find it without having to pay for it.
On 3/29/2020 9:21 AM, Roy B. wrote:
> Eric:
> Many of the news sources (like wsj) give prospective subscribers 3 or 4 free inline articles before they must subscribe or be blocked out. You might be over your limit of free articles. It is intentionally designed to be frustrating - so that you are forced to subscribe.
> ROY
--
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
March 29th 20, 06:24 PM
Very good information, thanks!
But your calculation does not consider those who died, but had not been
tested.* They would be considered in the numerator but not in the
denominator and so would skew the death rate higher.
On 3/29/2020 7:22 AM, Richard DalCanto wrote:
> So to get an accurate death rate you need to look at the death rate on a certain day, and then look at the positive test rates from 3 weeks prior.
>
> Richard DalCanto MD, PhD
--
Dan, 5J
> nowhere have I seen, heard, or read a plausible reason... there was never any sort of panic like that
I prefer concern instead of panic. There hasn't been serious widespread concern in the US like this since 1918. Not even polio or aids.
We are blessed that this is exceptional.
Sadly, the blessing is also a curse because it makes us complacent.
Given no vaccine, the best plan for handling a disease is to keep the case count low enough so that the public health folks handle it with case tracing and the public not much noticing.
Since 1918, the US has mostly managed to do this. The epidemics you mention did overwhelm public health folks and cause widespread concern, just not here. Without that lesson, the US social norms are not ready to get in front of the problem. In China, Sars got them ready, so they were able to get back ahead in a month or so.
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
March 29th 20, 09:06 PM
wrote on 3/29/2020 8:44 AM:
> On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:32:23 AM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>>>
>>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>>>
>>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>>
>> I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns totaling about
>> 250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
>> deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
>> Covid infections are increasing.
>>
>> Here's the deal for me:
>> - we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
>> - we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
>> - we don't have a vaccine
>> - we don't have a treatment
>> - at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
>>
>> I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
>> precautions.
>>
>> --
>> Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
>> - "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
>> https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
>
> Maybe it would be better to quarantine the high risk population and let everyone else party on. Covidoomers say we are all going to get it anyway, so let the strong get it without stopping the world. And the infirm can come out when all is clear. Or everyone else is dead and they have the planet to themselves.
Sarcasm? You know the majority of soaring pilots is in the high-risk group, right?
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
K m
March 29th 20, 09:06 PM
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 11:27:22 AM UTC-6, wrote:
I’ve got all the ammo I need however.
> Dan
Dan, Thanks for this! I can't get through my day without reading about how superior your line of reasoning is to every where else. And for reminding us that any problem in the world can be solved with more guns and ammo. (Isn't the run on guns what got us through Y2K?) Just brilliant!
Thanks
Kirk
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:06:55 PM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> wrote on 3/29/2020 8:44 AM:
> > On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:32:23 AM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> >> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
> >>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
> >>>
> >>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
> >>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health.. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
> >>>
> >>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
> >>
> >> I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns totaling about
> >> 250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
> >> deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
> >> Covid infections are increasing.
> >>
> >> Here's the deal for me:
> >> - we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
> >> - we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
> >> - we don't have a vaccine
> >> - we don't have a treatment
> >> - at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
> >>
> >> I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
> >> precautions.
> >>
> >> --
> >> Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
> >> - "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
> >> https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
> >
> > Maybe it would be better to quarantine the high risk population and let everyone else party on. Covidoomers say we are all going to get it anyway, so let the strong get it without stopping the world. And the infirm can come out when all is clear. Or everyone else is dead and they have the planet to themselves.
>
> Sarcasm? You know the majority of soaring pilots is in the high-risk group, right?
>
Should we shut down soaring for everybody because old people are grounded?
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
March 29th 20, 09:22 PM
Dan Marotta wrote on 3/29/2020 10:03 AM:
> I'm not a subscriber to WSJ (so I couldn't read the article), but my concern
> throughout all of this is that nowhere have I seen, heard, or read a plausible
> reason for these exceptional measures considering the death tolls from previous
> epidemics and pandemics such as Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola, etc.* Sure, I'm being
> hygienic, and not joining public gatherings, but the death tolls from the above
> mentioned diseases seem to be to have been much higher and there was never any
> sort of panic like that we're experiencing now.
>
> Please, someone, make some sense of it to me.* And giving me panic speeches about
> how bad it /could/ be in light of experience with pandemics of the past 30 years
> or so won't carry much weight.
>
> On 3/28/2020 8:19 PM, Duster wrote:
>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>>
>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
I can tell you a little bit upfront:
-Ebola is not nearly as contagious, as it is passed by direct contact with bodily
fluids
-Swine flu H1N1 was not nearly as contagious, or as fatal
This article compares the pandemics from 1918 to now:
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-deadly-is-the-coronavirus-compared-to-past-outbreaks#2009-%28H1N1%29-flu-pandemic
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
I think this thread is making me queasy..
reading about how superior your line of reasoning is to every where else. And for reminding us that any problem in the world can be solved with more guns and ammo. (Isn't the run on guns what got us through Y2K?) Just brilliant!
Thanks
Kirk
Spoken like a true socialist. Once again any opinion contrary to the party line is denegrated. I’m not and never will tell you how to live your life, what to believe or what to fly. Is my “ammo” such a threat to you? I’m sorry about that.
Finger Lakes Soaring in Upstate, New York (340 miles from NYC) is shut down until further notice. Most of our CFI-Gs are past 60 yrs. We always start the season off with a Spring Check Ride, with an instructor, for all members including the instructors. As the club instructor most advanced into geezerhood, I'm not getting into an enclosed cockpit with anyone for a quite a while. Our season may have to start with solo only for experienced pilots and no instruction.
Chuck Zabinski
And oh by the way, this current crisis and its results on folks living in other parts of the country is exact living proof of the soundness of my choice of where to live. Good luck with things over your way. If we end up in total depression and zombie apocalipse and marshall law,(prob not this time round but maybe next time) you will definitely need the ammo more than I will.
Its called independent self reliant thinking, something rarely found these days with abnormal dependence on the gov’t to look after you, good luck with that.
Personal preparation alliviates living in fear.
Dan
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
March 30th 20, 12:00 AM
wrote on 3/29/2020 1:22 PM:
> On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:06:55 PM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>>> Maybe it would be better to quarantine the high risk population and let everyone else party on. Covidoomers say we are all going to get it anyway, so let the strong get it without stopping the world. And the infirm can come out when all is clear. Or everyone else is dead and they have the planet to themselves.
>>
>> Sarcasm? You know the majority of soaring pilots is in the high-risk group, right?
>>
> Should we shut down soaring for everybody because old people are grounded?
Old people? I've been talking about the 65 and over; who are you talking about?
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 7:00:27 PM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> wrote on 3/29/2020 1:22 PM:
> > On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:06:55 PM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>
> >>> Maybe it would be better to quarantine the high risk population and let everyone else party on. Covidoomers say we are all going to get it anyway, so let the strong get it without stopping the world. And the infirm can come out when all is clear. Or everyone else is dead and they have the planet to themselves.
> >>
> >> Sarcasm? You know the majority of soaring pilots is in the high-risk group, right?
> >>
> > Should we shut down soaring for everybody because old people are grounded?
>
> Old people? I've been talking about the 65 and over; who are you talking about?
Should we shut down the soaring season for everyone because pilots in a certain age range(75 is the new 40, except during cold and flu season) feel it too risky to come to the airport?
This thread really is illuminating.
Thanks, maybe.
Aldo Cernezzi
(from Northern Italy)
Hello from Shanghai. I’m a pilot for one of the US cargo carriers here for work. I thought I would share my experience since there seems to be quite a disconnect between where we are in the US versus the thinking here..
Before we left the airplane for the hotel we were required to put on masks and had our temperature taken. Every person we encountered, leaving the airplane, immigration, health, customs, had full contagion suits on with eye protection. We rode in a car that had been fully swabbed down between rides. Arriving at the hotel we entered through a special door for foreigners and followed a roped off lane to a designated elevator. Everyone at the hotel had full suits on. They took us to the 34th floor were we stood isolated as they took our passports and credit cards to the lobby to get us keys. For the last 40 hours we’ve been shut in our hotel room with only room service. When they deliver the food they are wearing the suits and take our temperature.
In other words they are worried about us infecting them and they are serious about this virus. Overkill - maybe but they’ve got a handle on this. I’m concerned that the problem in the US will be made worse by our failure to take decisive action.
My club, Harris Hill, is shut down. That’s a bummer because just last week I was happily sanding new gelcoat on my fuselage to Bob Marley tunes all alone midweek in a huge hangar. But I guess I’d hate to infect one of the oldsters in the club since they are some of my favorite souls on earth.
There has been no decision made to cancel or postpone the WGC this year. There also seems to be no word from the SSA about the nationals. Anyone know anything?
Sean Murphy
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 6:24:41 AM UTC-7, John Godfrey (QT) wrote:
> On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 8:42:56 PM UTC-4, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> > Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
>
> I remain amazed at the number of people who don't get that the real issue is the silent transmission by infected but unaware people. Talking about the "risk to me" or "areas that are not hotspots" completely misses the essence of the problem we are dealing with.
The media is largely responsible, because reporters generally have very little science or math education. They are scientific idiots, and write the sort of articles expected.
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:32:23 AM UTC-7, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
> > A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
> >
> > Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
> > Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
> >
> > https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>
> I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns totaling about
> 250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
> deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
> Covid infections are increasing.
>
> Here's the deal for me:
> - we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
> - we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
> - we don't have a vaccine
> - we don't have a treatment
> - at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
>
> I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
> precautions.
>
> --
> Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
> - "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
> https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
If you look at actuarial tables, you'll probably find your risk of dying this year is about the same as the 'high risk' covid group.
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 6:49:35 PM UTC-7, wrote:
> Hello from Shanghai. I’m a pilot for one of the US cargo carriers here for work. I thought I would share my experience since there seems to be quite a disconnect between where we are in the US versus the thinking here.
>
> Before we left the airplane for the hotel we were required to put on masks and had our temperature taken. Every person we encountered, leaving the airplane, immigration, health, customs, had full contagion suits on with eye protection. We rode in a car that had been fully swabbed down between rides. Arriving at the hotel we entered through a special door for foreigners and followed a roped off lane to a designated elevator. Everyone at the hotel had full suits on. They took us to the 34th floor were we stood isolated as they took our passports and credit cards to the lobby to get us keys. For the last 40 hours we’ve been shut in our hotel room with only room service. When they deliver the food they are wearing the suits and take our temperature.
>
> In other words they are worried about us infecting them and they are serious about this virus. Overkill - maybe but they’ve got a handle on this. I’m concerned that the problem in the US will be made worse by our failure to take decisive action.
>
> My club, Harris Hill, is shut down. That’s a bummer because just last week I was happily sanding new gelcoat on my fuselage to Bob Marley tunes all alone midweek in a huge hangar. But I guess I’d hate to infect one of the oldsters in the club since they are some of my favorite souls on earth.
>
> There has been no decision made to cancel or postpone the WGC this year. There also seems to be no word from the SSA about the nationals. Anyone know anything?
>
> Sean Murphy
The SSA certainly doesn't know anything. That's just an organization that collects dues and uses the money to print a rubbish magazine.
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
March 30th 20, 04:08 AM
wrote on 3/29/2020 5:16 PM:
> On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 7:00:27 PM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>> wrote on 3/29/2020 1:22 PM:
>>> On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:06:55 PM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>>
>>>>> Maybe it would be better to quarantine the high risk population and let everyone else party on. Covidoomers say we are all going to get it anyway, so let the strong get it without stopping the world. And the infirm can come out when all is clear. Or everyone else is dead and they have the planet to themselves.
>>>>
>>>> Sarcasm? You know the majority of soaring pilots is in the high-risk group, right?
>>>>
>>> Should we shut down soaring for everybody because old people are grounded?
>>
>> Old people? I've been talking about the 65 and over; who are you talking about?
> Should we shut down the soaring season for everyone because pilots in a certain age range(75 is the new 40, except during cold and flu season) feel it too risky to come to the airport?
>
I don't know what "shut down the soaring season" means, but practically speaking,
if the 65+ group feels threatened by infected younger people, soaring
opportunities might be very reduced. That age group does a lot of towing,
instructing, supporting the towplane by taking tows, and generally making sure
things run smoothly.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
March 30th 20, 04:18 AM
wrote on 3/29/2020 7:31 PM:
> On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:32:23 AM UTC-7, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>>>
>>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>>>
>>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>>
>> I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns totaling about
>> 250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
>> deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
>> Covid infections are increasing.
>>
>> Here's the deal for me:
>> - we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
>> - we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
>> - we don't have a vaccine
>> - we don't have a treatment
>> - at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
>>
>> I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
>> precautions.
>
> If you look at actuarial tables, you'll probably find your risk of dying this year is about the same as the 'high risk' covid group.
My point is getting infected increases my risk of dying, as the actuarial tables
don't account for Covid-19.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
March 30th 20, 04:30 AM
Roy B. wrote on 3/29/2020 8:21 AM:
> Eric:
> Many of the news sources (like wsj) give prospective subscribers 3 or 4 free inline articles before they must subscribe or be blocked out. You might be over your limit of free articles. It is intentionally designed to be frustrating - so that you are forced to subscribe.
> ROY
NYT, Washington Post, and many others, typically allow a few free articles per
month. The few times in the last 5 or 6 years I've tried to view a WSJ article, I
hit the paywall. How did Chrome, which I've never used for the WSJ, not let me
read a free article? Even my wife's computer, which has never been to the WSJ,
can't get a free article. It's a puzzle.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
2G
March 30th 20, 07:17 AM
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:30:27 PM UTC-7, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> Roy B. wrote on 3/29/2020 8:21 AM:
> > Eric:
> > Many of the news sources (like wsj) give prospective subscribers 3 or 4 free inline articles before they must subscribe or be blocked out. You might be over your limit of free articles. It is intentionally designed to be frustrating - so that you are forced to subscribe.
> > ROY
>
> NYT, Washington Post, and many others, typically allow a few free articles per
> month. The few times in the last 5 or 6 years I've tried to view a WSJ article, I
> hit the paywall. How did Chrome, which I've never used for the WSJ, not let me
> read a free article? Even my wife's computer, which has never been to the WSJ,
> can't get a free article. It's a puzzle.
>
> --
> Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
> - "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
> https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.
Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.
The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.
Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.
Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.
ADVERTISEMENT
In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.
The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.
How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.
The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.
This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.
If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.
A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya are professors of medicine at Stanford. Neeraj Sood contributed to this article.
Don Johnstone[_4_]
March 30th 20, 11:35 AM
At 03:18 30 March 2020, Eric Greenwell wrote:
wrote on 3/29/2020 7:31 PM:
>> On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:32:23 AM UTC-7, Eric
Greenwell wrote:
>>> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>>>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ
that=E2=80=99s w=
>orth a read:
>>>>
>>>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>>>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be
too high by=
> orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the
costs i=
>t imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and
physical he=
>alth. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the
empirical basis=
> of the current lockdowns.
>>>>
>>>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-
deadly-as-they=
>-say-11585088464
>>>
>>> I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns
totalin=
>g about
>>> 250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month.
Compare that t=
>o four flu
>>> deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have
been de=
>creasing,
>>> Covid infections are increasing.
>>>
>>> Here's the deal for me:
>>> - we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu
does=
>
>>> - we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
>>> - we don't have a vaccine
>>> - we don't have a treatment
>>> - at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
>>>
>>> I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact,
and =
>other
>>> precautions.
>>=20
>> If you look at actuarial tables, you'll probably find your risk of
dyin=
>g this year is about the same as the 'high risk' covid group.
>
>My point is getting infected increases my risk of dying, as the
actuarial=
> tables=20
>don't account for Covid-19.
>
>
>--=20
>Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us"
to email=
> me)
>- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
>
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-
th=
>e-guide-1
>
I think as a country you face two problems, one is the disease itself
and the other is your reaction to it. Like it or not your country is
being judged on the actions of your government, mainly your
president who appears to be hell bent on earning the name
"Spinning Trump" We see the number of aircraft criss-crossing the
USA and wonder why you are still allowing the spread of the disease.
We wonder why our government is still allowing aircraft from the
USA, particularly New York to land here. What you guys are doing
and saying over there is really scary. I feel that it is insensitive to
talk about exaggerated figures, particularly deaths on a forum that
can be seen in northern Italy.
The US could find itself a pariah, health wise, in the rest of the world
if your government(s) don't get a grip.
We are already considered a pariah. Nothing new there. Even the countries that we bled and died to free treat the US like ****. Most of us dont give a rip what the EU or Canada or the others think about us. We do our own thing we always have, always will. While I hear lots of US bashing I sure dont see any other country out there coming to OUR aid, I dont see anyone sending us ventilators or personal protection equipment but they sure expect us to jump and run when they have a crisis.
Don Johnstone[_4_]
March 30th 20, 02:09 PM
At 12:55 30 March 2020, wrote:
>We are already considered a pariah. Nothing new there. Even the
countries
>t=
>hat we bled and died to free treat the US like ****. Most of us dont
give
>a=
> rip what the EU or Canada or the others think about us. We do our
own
>thin=
>g we always have, always will. While I hear lots of US bashing I sure
dont
>=
>see any other country out there coming to OUR aid, I dont see anyone
>sendin=
>g us ventilators or personal protection equipment but they sure
expect us
>t=
>o jump and run when they have a crisis.
That is actually not true, we have frequently come to your aid, and you
have come to ours. This despite dumping all that bloody tea, for which
we have yet to forgive you. We do, or most of us do, share your dislike
of the EU.
>
LOL well ya just gotta forgive us for that tea business, we had cut a deal on a shipload of coffee right before lol. Its just my hackles always rise when folks continually blame the ills of the world on america and our independant lifestyle.
Where is all the condemnation toward china which has given us every pandemic we’ve had the last 50 years, and who ALWAYS spins the truth about their real situation. I guess its not politically correct to point a finger at them, buts its always ok to down the usa. Thats the hypocracy that gets to me.
Dan
Martin Gregorie[_6_]
March 30th 20, 02:59 PM
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 13:09:47 +0000, Don Johnstone wrote:
> That is actually not true, we have frequently come to your aid, and you
> have come to ours. This despite dumping all that bloody tea, for which
> we have yet to forgive you. We do, or most of us do, share your dislike
> of the EU.
>
Ironically, the whole tea-dumping bit seems to have been triggered by the
misdoings of the East India Company - see Peter Frankopan's "The New Silk
Roads" for details. Its well worth reading for the light it sheds on
global history starting from the dawn of writing up to the present day.
There are much worse things you can do than to read this while we can't
fly.
--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org
Please don't judge the U.S. by what a few loudmouths on this newsgroup or some of our leaders say any more than we judge other countries by what a few media outlets and politicians there say about us.
We are all in this together. About all I can add is that because the U.S. is such a vast, diverse country, the experience in some areas can be very different than in others. I live in the New York City area and have elderly parents in a health care facility in Florida and can relate very much to what is happening in, say, Italy and Spain right now.
Let people make noise. Ignore most of it. We will get through this.
Chip Bearden
Martin and my other friends, I think old England would have considered america’s founding fathers the “loudmouths” of their day, something to think about.
Mike N.
March 30th 20, 03:45 PM
I've been skeptical of the projections of mortality rates for some time.
The article about the Swiss, and their reading of this is similar. As well as the recent change of the model to a reduced mortality rate by the author of the Imperial College bears out my original skepticisim.
From the artical on how Switzerland is still open:
"His team at the Public Health Agency of Sweden is critical of the Imperial College paper that warned this month that 250,000 people in the UK would die if the government failed to introduce more draconian measures. A week later Johnson ordered the police to implement a partial lockdown to combat the virus, telling people they “must stay at home”.
“We have had a fair amount of people looking at it and they are sceptical,” says Tegnell. “They think Imperial chose a number of variables that gave a prognosis that was quite pessimistic, and that you could just as easily have chosen other variables that gave you another outcome. It’s not a peer-reviewed paper. It might be right, but it might also be terribly wrong. In Sweden, we are a bit surprised that it’s had such an impact.”
I'm not being crass here, certainly this virus is one of the worst ever. That being said, real science allows for the correction of a theory based on newer data. That data is being gathered now as we get more real world evidence of the actual numbers, both infection rates and mortality rates.
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:06:55 PM UTC-4, K m wrote:
> On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 11:27:22 AM UTC-6, wrote:
> I’ve got all the ammo I need however.
> > Dan
>
> Dan, Thanks for this! I can't get through my day without reading about how superior your line of reasoning is to every where else. And for reminding us that any problem in the world can be solved with more guns and ammo. (Isn't the run on guns what got us through Y2K?) Just brilliant!
> Thanks
> Kirk
I just read that the gubmint has determined that the gun industry is a critical one to keep opening and functioning.
Gotta have your gun to protect your toilet paper supply!
LOL
UH
Nick Kennedy[_3_]
March 30th 20, 04:01 PM
Got a gun in your house?
Better be very careful
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/statistical-life/201701/the-true-odds-shooting-bad-guy-gun
son_of_flubber
March 30th 20, 04:03 PM
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:30:27 PM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> NYT, Washington Post, and many others, typically allow a few free articles per
month.
All Corana coverage is currently free at NYTimes and WAPO. For WAPO, you have to sign up for a free 'newsletter' and they send you an email containing all of the links to articles (and the newsletter lags somewhat behind the website).
The NYTimes routinely provides free coverage of major disasters.
Yeh UH someone might steal folks germ ladden mask too lol. Ain’t people crazy.
Dan
Don Johnstone[_4_]
March 30th 20, 04:44 PM
At 14:57 30 March 2020, wrote:
>
>I just read that the gubmint has determined that the gun industry is a
>crit=
>ical one to keep opening and functioning.
>Gotta have your gun to protect your toilet paper supply!
>LOL
>UH
To be fair when we read that we thought you might be expecting the
Zombie Apocalypse.
Seriously we do not judge you all by the utterings of the Orange man,
he is however pretty hard to ignore. We are in total shutdown here as
far as flying is concerned and we just want to get it over. I figured the
best way of doing that is to just get on with it and hope it works. For
what it is worth I think it is the right thing to do.
Martin Gregorie[_6_]
March 30th 20, 05:23 PM
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 07:41:06 -0700, uneekcowgirl wrote:
> Martin and my other friends, I think old England would have considered
> america’s founding fathers the “loudmouths” of their day, something to
> think about.
>
Dunno if thats quite the right term. Dissidents, certainly.
However, I don't know a lot about that time. I moved schools a lot and
ended up with sitting through several repetitions of English Mediaeval
History and was taught very little about any other time or place. Most of
what I think I know of history I learnt much later, and I know a lot more
about the region running east from Hungary to India than I do about the
Americas.
However, I did spend 18 months working in NYC in the mid '70s, with an
apartment at 3rd and 64th in Manhattan, but working out at Long Beach,
Long Island. I commuted on the LIRR, and that was definitely the best way
to organise living and working in NYC. By and large I enjoyed that,
especially after I joined the New York Skyscrapers model flying club and
had fun flying competitions around NY state and down into Maryland.
--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org
Tango Whisky
March 30th 20, 05:34 PM
By what means is Switzerland still open?!
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 12:34:44 PM UTC-4, Tango Whisky wrote:
> By what means is Switzerland still open?!
Sweden and Belarus are operating as normal, don't know about Switzerland.
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
March 30th 20, 06:05 PM
wrote on 3/30/2020 6:25 AM:
> LOL well ya just gotta forgive us for that tea business, we had cut a deal on a shipload of coffee right before lol. Its just my hackles always rise when folks continually blame the ills of the world on america and our independant lifestyle.
> Where is all the condemnation toward china which has given us every pandemic we’ve had the last 50 years, and who ALWAYS spins the truth about their real situation. I guess its not politically correct to point a finger at them, buts its always ok to down the usa. Thats the hypocracy that gets to me.
> Dan
I don't think China "gave" us the virus, which likely came from bats, and they are
the first victims; regardless, once it got to the US, it's our virus now, and our
response to it determines what happens to us. China was surprised by it, but they
have already tamped it down, while we, even with the benefit of more than a month
of warning and a quarter of the population, have not been able to do so, and we
now exceed China's cases and deaths.
I did not take any comfort in the President's statement that we will be doing a
great job if we keep the deaths to 100,000, and I think the world is wise to worry
about the virus spreading from our country.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
Andreas Maurer[_2_]
March 30th 20, 06:26 PM
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 18:49:32 -0700 (PDT), wrote:
>There has been no decision made to cancel or postpone the WGC this year. There also seems to be no word from the SSA about the nationals. Anyone know anything?
Yes.
Preliminary decisions have been made, and the final decision about the
WGC at Stendal is going to follow soon.
At the moment all pure glider fields in Europe are closed as well as
most other General Aviation Airports. Gliding is essentially shut down
in all of Europe at the moment for the foreseeable future.
Draw your own conclusion if a WGC in Germany is going to take place.
Cheers
Andreas
Tango Whisky
March 30th 20, 06:32 PM
Switzerland is locked down, like all countries who's leaders have some brains left.
Don Johnstone[_4_]
March 30th 20, 06:58 PM
At 17:32 30 March 2020, Tango Whisky wrote:
>Switzerland is locked down, like all countries who's leaders have some
>brains left.
or had any to start with :-)
China was surprised by it, but they
have already tamped it down, while we, even with the benefit of more than a month
of warning and a quarter of the population, have not been able to do so, and we
now exceed China's cases and deaths.
And you believe the reporting coming out of the govt run china news agency?.....ah....I have some lake front property you might be interested in buying from me, I’ll make you a heck of a deal....
>Switzerland is locked down, like all countries who's leaders have some
>brains left.
or had any to start with :-)
Oh I’ve got a great idea, We should get Berney in that office, he can really relate to the “chinese” and the russians....oh I know, how about Biden, but you might need to remind ole Joe what day it is or where he’s standing. Yeh lets get some “smart guys” to handle this thing. How about putting all the dem’s (Polosi, Schumer, no brain Cortez) that mercilessly harranged and chastized Trump when he closed our borders last month, and who are now singing a different tune, conveniently forgeting their esrlier objections. Yes Polosi, thats the ticket, the gal who held up the aid package for a whole week so she could stuff it with non-virus-crisis pork and funding for the Kennedy center and planned parenthood. Yeh theres the solution, Moriarty Dan...better buy some more ammo lol.
Tango Whisky
March 30th 20, 07:59 PM
To be clear: Nobody cares about US internals, and not a lot of people care how you handle Covid-19 in the US.
Have fun with the Orange Man.
Oh we will and we do, have fun sitting on the ground over there.
Dan Marotta
March 31st 20, 01:45 AM
I'm not grounded.* Just waiting for a decent day.
On 3/29/2020 2:22 PM, wrote:
> On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:06:55 PM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>> wrote on 3/29/2020 8:44 AM:
>>> On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 11:32:23 AM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>>>> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>>>>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>>>>>
>>>>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>>>>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>>>> I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns totaling about
>>>> 250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
>>>> deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
>>>> Covid infections are increasing.
>>>>
>>>> Here's the deal for me:
>>>> - we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
>>>> - we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
>>>> - we don't have a vaccine
>>>> - we don't have a treatment
>>>> - at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
>>>>
>>>> I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
>>>> precautions.
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
>>>> - "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
>>>> https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
>>> Maybe it would be better to quarantine the high risk population and let everyone else party on. Covidoomers say we are all going to get it anyway, so let the strong get it without stopping the world. And the infirm can come out when all is clear. Or everyone else is dead and they have the planet to themselves.
>> Sarcasm? You know the majority of soaring pilots is in the high-risk group, right?
>>
> Should we shut down soaring for everybody because old people are grounded?
--
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
March 31st 20, 01:58 AM
Real men don't drink tea, that's why we dumped it in the harbor... :-D
On 3/30/2020 7:09 AM, Don Johnstone wrote:
> At 12:55 30 March 2020, wrote:
>> We are already considered a pariah. Nothing new there. Even the
> countries
>> t=
>> hat we bled and died to free treat the US like ****. Most of us dont
> give
>> a=
>> rip what the EU or Canada or the others think about us. We do our
> own
>> thin=
>> g we always have, always will. While I hear lots of US bashing I sure
> dont
>> =
>> see any other country out there coming to OUR aid, I dont see anyone
>> sendin=
>> g us ventilators or personal protection equipment but they sure
> expect us
>> t=
>> o jump and run when they have a crisis.
> That is actually not true, we have frequently come to your aid, and you
> have come to ours. This despite dumping all that bloody tea, for which
> we have yet to forgive you. We do, or most of us do, share your dislike
> of the EU.
--
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
March 31st 20, 02:05 AM
Oh for the love of God!* Can't you speak civilly about the leader of the
free word?* What color are you, Don?* The continued use of epithets by
you has caused me to lose any respect which I might have had.* Please
grow up and try to speak without sounding like a third grader.
On 3/30/2020 9:44 AM, Don Johnstone wrote:
> At 14:57 30 March 2020, wrote:
>
>> I just read that the gubmint has determined that the gun industry is a
>> crit=
>> ical one to keep opening and functioning.
>> Gotta have your gun to protect your toilet paper supply!
>> LOL
>> UH
> To be fair when we read that we thought you might be expecting the
> Zombie Apocalypse.
> Seriously we do not judge you all by the utterings of the Orange man,
> he is however pretty hard to ignore. We are in total shutdown here as
> far as flying is concerned and we just want to get it over. I figured the
> best way of doing that is to just get on with it and hope it works. For
> what it is worth I think it is the right thing to do.
>
--
Dan, 5J
Eric Greenwell[_4_]
March 31st 20, 04:48 AM
wrote on 3/30/2020 11:19 AM:
> China was surprised by it, but they
> have already tamped it down, while we, even with the benefit of more than a month
> of warning and a quarter of the population, have not been able to do so, and we
> now exceed China's cases and deaths.
>
> And you believe the reporting coming out of the govt run china news agency?.....ah....I have some lake front property you might be interested in buying from me, I’ll make you a heck of a deal....
>
This claim is not based just on what China says, but on several other independent
sources. There are reports in newspapers, scientific publications, from the UN,
and not just in our country, but around the world. Search some of the sources you
trust.
-- .
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
krasw
March 31st 20, 09:29 AM
On Saturday, 28 March 2020 15:45:05 UTC+2, James Metcalfe wrote:
> At 11:03 28 March 2020, krasw wrote:
> >In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000
> >inhabitants. That is 0.0002% of the population.
>
> Ahem! That's 0.02%
> J.
Yes, I deleted (since google does not allow editing) the post after rereading and noticing that too. Kudos for pointing my mistake faster that I can left-click!
K m
March 31st 20, 06:44 PM
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 12:34:19 PM UTC-6, wrote:
> >Switzerland is locked down, like all countries who's leaders have some
> >brains left.
>
>
> or had any to start with :-)
>
> Oh I’ve got a great idea, We should get Berney in that office, he can really relate to the “chinese” and the russians....oh I know, how about Biden, but you might need to remind ole Joe what day it is or where he’s standing. Yeh lets get some “smart guys” to handle this thing. How about putting all the dem’s (Polosi, Schumer, no brain Cortez) that mercilessly harranged and chastized Trump when he closed our borders last month, and who are now singing a different tune, conveniently forgeting their esrlier objections. Yes Polosi, thats the ticket, the gal who held up the aid package for a whole week so she could stuff it with non-virus-crisis pork and funding for the Kennedy center and planned parenthood. Yeh theres the solution, Moriarty Dan...better buy some more ammo
Dan,
Such dizzying intellect! Normally one would have to waste time watching Fox News to get this type of spiteful ignorance and conspiracist fodder. Thank you for bringing it here to this totally unrelated and inappropriate forum (About soaring). God bless you Dan, the time you save us here can be spent laying around the house.
Kirk
K m
March 31st 20, 06:53 PM
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 7:05:51 PM UTC-6, Dan Marotta wrote:
> Oh for the love of God!* Can't you speak civilly about the leader of the
> free word?* What color are you, Don?* The continued use of epithets by
> you has caused me to lose any respect which I might have had.* Please
> grow up and try to speak without sounding like a third grader.
> Dan, 5J
Dan, Amen brother! Granted, with his pathological lying, 3:30 AM rage tweeting, Gaslighting, Incompetency, and 3rd grade behavior some would say that President Bonespurs brings this on himself but we should still show respect! That goes for the Vice Poodle as well!
Oh Kirk glad to help. With your superior intellect and clearly elevated analysis of media reporting I would think you would’nt need my analysis. I am sure msnbc will provide any portions you may be lacking.
Dan
Don Johnstone[_4_]
March 31st 20, 08:20 PM
At 17:56 31 March 2020, wrote:
>Oh Kirk glad to help. With your superior intellect and clearly elevated
>an=
>alysis of media reporting I would think you would=E2=80=99nt need
my
>analy=
>sis. I am sure msnbc will provide any portions you may be lacking.
>Dan
and they let you people buy guns, scary.
John McLaughlin
March 31st 20, 09:01 PM
My Oudie 2 (not IGC) Gives a 'CHECK GEAR' when I descend in the
circuit. I've never noticed it in the settings, but it's there and it works
reliably without any nuisance wanings.
At 19:20 31 March 2020, Don Johnstone wrote:
>At 17:56 31 March 2020, wrote:
>>Oh Kirk glad to help. With your superior intellect and clearly
elevated
>>an=
>>alysis of media reporting I would think you would=E2=80=99nt
need
>my
>>analy=
>>sis. I am sure msnbc will provide any portions you may be lacking.
>>Dan
>
>and they let you people buy guns, scary.
>
>
Jonathan St. Cloud
March 31st 20, 09:32 PM
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 2:42:45 PM UTC-7, wrote:
> And oh by the way, this current crisis and its results on folks living in other parts of the country is exact living proof of the soundness of my choice of where to live.
>
> Personal preparation alliviates living in fear.
> Dan
Perhaps you have heard, roads run in two directions.
Dan Marotta
March 31st 20, 09:35 PM
You must be a progressive socialist.* Nothing of what you say has
relevance to anything real.* You live, think, and deal in fantasy. Dream
on...
On 3/31/2020 11:53 AM, K m wrote:
> On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 7:05:51 PM UTC-6, Dan Marotta wrote:
>> Oh for the love of God!* Can't you speak civilly about the leader of the
>> free word?* What color are you, Don?* The continued use of epithets by
>> you has caused me to lose any respect which I might have had.* Please
>> grow up and try to speak without sounding like a third grader.
>> Dan, 5J
> Dan, Amen brother! Granted, with his pathological lying, 3:30 AM rage tweeting, Gaslighting, Incompetency, and 3rd grade behavior some would say that President Bonespurs brings this on himself but we should still show respect! That goes for the Vice Poodle as well!
--
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
March 31st 20, 09:38 PM
They don't "let" us buy guns, it's our right.* I know the US
Constitution is not covered in your education, just as your
Parliamentary system is not covered in ours.* You "gave up" your guns
because you are afraid of government.* We keep ours because government
is afraid of us.
On 3/31/2020 1:20 PM, Don Johnstone wrote:
> At 17:56 31 March 2020, wrote:
>> Oh Kirk glad to help. With your superior intellect and clearly elevated
>> an=
>> alysis of media reporting I would think you would=E2=80=99nt need
> my
>> analy=
>> sis. I am sure msnbc will provide any portions you may be lacking.
>> Dan
> and they let you people buy guns, scary.
>
--
Dan, 5J
K m
March 31st 20, 10:30 PM
On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 2:35:23 PM UTC-6, Dan Marotta wrote:
> You must be a progressive socialist.*
That's Neocon Fascist to you Mister.....I wear my red hat with pride!
> Nothing of what you say has
> relevance to anything real.*
Ouch! You sound like my wife.
> You live, think, and deal in fantasy.
I prefer the term Alternate Reality.
> Dream
> on...
I'm dreaming of a Big Mack and fries;)
K m
March 31st 20, 11:04 PM
On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 2:38:07 PM UTC-6, Dan Marotta wrote:
> They don't "let" us buy guns, it's our right.* You "gave up" your guns
> because you are afraid of government.* We keep ours because government
> is afraid of us.
> Dan, 5J
We definitely fear ours since Trump was elected.
Dan Marotta
April 1st 20, 01:28 AM
:-D
Thanks!* But be wary of that red hat, it might be mistaken for MAGA!
On 3/31/2020 3:30 PM, K m wrote:
> On Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 2:35:23 PM UTC-6, Dan Marotta wrote:
>> You must be a progressive socialist.
> That's Neocon Fascist to you Mister.....I wear my red hat with pride!
>
>> Nothing of what you say has
>> relevance to anything real.
> Ouch! You sound like my wife.
>
>> You live, think, and deal in fantasy.
> I prefer the term Alternate Reality.
>
>> Dream
>> on...
> I'm dreaming of a Big Mack and fries;)
--
Dan, 5J
Tom[_21_]
April 1st 20, 03:08 PM
For those interested in some sobering stats: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ts8X3HDtPE At 3:07 is an interesting chart showing factors that have big impacts on outcomes, body mass index (BMI) being a key player, it makes sense but I'd not seen that data broken out yet.
I think actual statistics/data, science and risk management decision making should drive the decisions for clubs, commercial operations and individuals. My intention is to provide some information, not to inflame or pour gasoline on this topic, although I fully expect I will take some incoming fire..
Regards, Tom
Thanks for the info Tom, I for one do appreciate it. I think the Rich Owens interview on the latest thermal podcast is a good one for clubs/CD’s to check out. We are still doing limited flying here of solo ships in a similar manner to what Rich is doing down in seminole.
Dan
lynn
April 1st 20, 05:34 PM
On Monday, March 30, 2020 at 11:59:20 AM UTC-7, Tango Whisky wrote:
> To be clear: Nobody cares about US internals, and not a lot of people care how you handle Covid-19 in the US.
>
> Have fun with the Orange Man.
Are we to assume you are not going to vote for Trump??
Dan Marotta
April 1st 20, 09:36 PM
Excellent information, Tom!* Thanks for posting.
On 4/1/2020 8:08 AM, Tom wrote:
> For those interested in some sobering stats: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ts8X3HDtPE At 3:07 is an interesting chart showing factors that have big impacts on outcomes, body mass index (BMI) being a key player, it makes sense but I'd not seen that data broken out yet.
>
> I think actual statistics/data, science and risk management decision making should drive the decisions for clubs, commercial operations and individuals. My intention is to provide some information, not to inflame or pour gasoline on this topic, although I fully expect I will take some incoming fire.
>
> Regards, Tom
--
Dan, 5J
Marc V
April 2nd 20, 12:07 AM
Florida just announced a State Wide "stay at home order" as of tomorrow night 4/2 midnight... I guess flying here has been halted...
Tango Whisky
April 2nd 20, 05:43 AM
Wll, we Swiss are supposed to be kind of neutral ;-)
Rich Owen[_2_]
April 2nd 20, 06:09 PM
Airports are considered essential businesses so we will continue flying with limitations. No training, rides, or employees coming in contact with pilots/crews. We only have three employees at the company right now. Two of which are present each day (office and tow pilot). If any of our employees get sick, the business will likely close for at least two weeks and we will re-access. To some of us, flying is an outlet that is similar to running and is necessary for our mental health. Lord knows we all need some bright spots in our days. We ask everyone to stay away from the office and use electronic means to communicate/pay their bill with us. The tow pilot and office staff do not hang out together. We believe this keeps everyone safe and still allow pilots to fly their personal ships. Rentals are NOT available.
Rich, thanks for “keeping the faith” and giving us hope that we can still get some pleasure and sanity escape activities during this mess. I wish I lived closer to you, I would be getting a tow or two even if the wx condx are mediocre. I would not only be keeping a little sanity by flying but also providing some financial support to keep a commercial soaring op in business.
Dan
Charlie M. (UH & 002 owner/pilot)
April 2nd 20, 07:42 PM
My place was to do, "club ship assemble 3/21 or so..."....was called off due to NY metro "camp in place" state directive.....
No clue if private owners can get a tow here or sorta locally....most places want a "spring check out" and maybe a biennial....
I know I legally need one for my logbook....
While it sucks....I have family fliers that fall under "at risk", I am sorta close.....
We shall see in a month+.....
Andreas Maurer[_2_]
April 3rd 20, 04:41 PM
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 18:49:32 -0700 (PDT), wrote:
>There has been no decision made to cancel or postpone the WGC this year. There also seems to be no word from the SSA about the nationals. Anyone know anything?
WGC at Stendal has been cancelled (postponed to 2011) today, together
with all other competitions in Germany.
https://www.daec.de/news-details/nationale-und-internationale-wettbewerbe-verschoben-oder-abgesagt/
Rich Owen[_2_]
April 4th 20, 03:13 PM
Andreas,
Check SSA Contest Committee announcement on 1 April from Andy Blackburn. Rich
Andreas Maurer[_2_]
April 4th 20, 03:39 PM
On Sat, 4 Apr 2020 07:13:14 -0700 (PDT), Rich Owen >
wrote:
>Andreas,
>
>Check SSA Contest Committee announcement on 1 April from Andy Blackburn. Rich
Got a direct link? The latest one I find is from 2020-3-31.
BTW: I'm from Germany and took part in the conference call on
2020-3-26 where the German Aero Club (DAeC) decided to cancel all FAI
competitions in Germany in 2020. Do you have more current information?
The official announcement of the DAeC is dated 2020-4-3.
Cheers
Andreas
On Saturday, April 4, 2020 at 10:39:54 AM UTC-4, Andreas Maurer wrote:
> On Sat, 4 Apr 2020 07:13:14 -0700 (PDT), Rich Owen >
> wrote:
>
> >Andreas,
> >
> >Check SSA Contest Committee announcement on 1 April from Andy Blackburn. Rich
>
> Got a direct link? The latest one I find is from 2020-3-31.
>
> BTW: I'm from Germany and took part in the conference call on
> 2020-3-26 where the German Aero Club (DAeC) decided to cancel all FAI
> competitions in Germany in 2020. Do you have more current information?
> The official announcement of the DAeC is dated 2020-4-3.
>
> Cheers
> Andreas
WGC's in Germany and France postponed to 2021.There is consideration of the possibility of shifting the entire schedule back one year. More on this when it is resolved.
UH
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:42:47 AM UTC-7, Charlie M. (UH & 002 owner/pilot) wrote:
> My place was to do, "club ship assemble 3/21 or so..."....was called off due to NY metro "camp in place" state directive.....
> No clue if private owners can get a tow here or sorta locally....most places want a "spring check out" and maybe a biennial....
> I know I legally need one for my logbook....
>
> While it sucks....I have family fliers that fall under "at risk", I am sorta close.....
>
> We shall see in a month+.....
Recent research shows that a significant portion of infected people are asymptomatic for 48 hours, maybe up to 5 days, following infection. In this time period they are highly contagious. You can be feeling just fine but have COVID-19 and be contagious. That is what makes this disease so insidious and the reason behind isolation.
https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-we-know-so-far-about-those-who-can-pass-corona-without-symptoms
Andreas,
Sorry, should have included the link.
https://www.ssa.org/files/member/Guidance%20to%202020%20SSA%20Contest%20Organizers. pdf
Cheers,
Rich
John, did you mean to post the Oudie info on another string? Is it an aural warning? Weird that Naviter does not post or publish anything about it...
Andreas Maurer[_2_]
April 6th 20, 12:06 PM
On Sun, 5 Apr 2020 03:30:23 -0700 (PDT), wrote:
>Andreas,
>
>Sorry, should have included the link.
>
>https://www.ssa.org/files/member/Guidance%20to%202020%20SSA%20Contest%20Organizers. pdf
>
>Cheers,
>Rich
Thank you very much!
Moving all events ahead one year is the thing that is done all over
Europe, and I think it's a good idea. If other countriesfollowed,
things would stay synchronized at least (in Germany we have a two year
interval of major competitions which act as qualifications for WGC's
and EGC's).
I wasn't involved in the final decicion about the WGC, but in the
discussion leading to that decision one major point was that it
probably would be problematic to ship the gliders across the borders.
Stay safe!
Andreas
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