View Full Version : Glider Fire Sale
Question for u guys. Do you think we are going to see a massive glider fire sale after this china virus deal subsides? I wonder if this crisis and its associated lack of flying opportunities is going to convince many of the non-die-hard guys to leave the sport and divest themselves of many good older machines.
With the above post in mind, I will be in the market for either a russia AC-4c model, or a handicap competative club class ship: Cirrus preferably a later model with conventional tailplane, Jantar, DG100.
Dan
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 3:26:07 PM UTC-4, wrote:
> With the above post in mind, I will be in the market for either a russia AC-4c model, or a handicap competative club class ship: Cirrus preferably a later model with conventional tailplane, Jantar, DG100.
> Dan
Dan- what about a DG200?? I know of one that may be up for sale in the near future?? It has a 1 piece canopy.
Yes that would be in the mix although I have’nt look at the handicap rating on the 200.
Dan
John Foster
April 3rd 20, 12:07 AM
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 1:42:43 PM UTC-6, wrote:
> Yes that would be in the mix although I have’nt look at the handicap rating on the 200.
> Dan
There's a Phoebus C for sale right now in WV.
IADPE
April 3rd 20, 12:25 AM
I was almost ready to buy a nice single seater when this broke wide open. Now conserving cash, waiting to see how job situation shakes out, and how low glider prices go.
Curt Lewis - 95
April 3rd 20, 03:17 AM
Dan.. I have a friend with AC-4c ... low time but in trailer for many years. Original owner. (I think serial #49). He would sell it right now or later. Send contact info to:
CurtL33
@aol.com
Steve Leonard[_2_]
April 3rd 20, 05:11 AM
Dang it! Got my hopes up that the sale was starting :-)
Steve Leonard
CEO of Steve's Home for Wayward Gliders
Curt I send u an email thanks
Burt Compton - Marfa Gliders, west Texas
April 3rd 20, 02:39 PM
Schweizer 2-33 wanted. Really.
Reply by e-mail only to marfagliders at A0L dot c0m
Also if anyone has a russia AC-5m that you know of or are not flying, I would be seriously interested.
Dan
Since we've drifted this far, we are looking for a trailer for a Phoebus B. Preferably in Florida or the southeastern US.
Bruce Cynamon
Weirsdale Glider Club
No drift Bruce, your post is exactly on target for why I started this thread.
Dan
Ryan Wubben
April 3rd 20, 07:36 PM
I’d be interested in a nice Ka-8b or something similar for my son
and I.
Ryan in Madison, WI
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 12:21:48 PM UTC-7, wrote:
> Question for u guys. Do you think we are going to see a massive glider fire sale after this china virus deal subsides? I wonder if this crisis and its associated lack of flying opportunities is going to convince many of the non-die-hard guys to leave the sport and divest themselves of many good older machines.
Why should this push someone to leave the sport? There will be a temporary shut-down of some glider operations, but the crisis will be over in a month or two. That could result in a pent-up demand to go flying after the lock-downs are lifted.
Clearly, selling a glider these days is a challenge (speaking as someone who has a motorglider for sale - hey, you don't need a tow pilot!). And that could persist for some time as people aren't working.
Tom
"Why should it cause someone to leave the sport?"-
Answer: 'cause they're dead!
George Haeh
April 5th 20, 03:11 AM
All us aged male pilots who wish our heirs get the best benefit for our estates need to let our executors know exactly where the documents are and how to retrieve them.
Sad story and maybe somebody can help....
In early February, a good friend was killed in his AC-4C Russia glider. Now I'm helping his wife through some of the process of selling some of his outstanding equipment:
1. A meticulous trailer.
2. An unfinished AC-4C kit, still in the crate, that came from Aviastroitel in Russia. The plan was for his brother to complete the kit (sadly, his brother passed away from cancer a couple of years ago). I think it's taking up space in the barn....you would need a flat bed truck/trailer to move this thing. I DO NOT think it was a perfect kit...there maybe have been defects in the factory assembly of wings (maybe curing rates? maybe molds, I don't exactly know). However, parts wise, you'd have a set of never-used flight controls, linkage, seat pan, etc.
Looking for advice on selling, pricing, and maybe somebody would want the kit....probably a current owner of an AC-4 that has space.
Kindly,
Erik van Weezendonk
Northern Virginia
John Foster
May 7th 20, 11:25 PM
On Thursday, May 7, 2020 at 2:34:46 PM UTC-6, wrote:
> Sad story and maybe somebody can help....
>
> In early February, a good friend was killed in his AC-4C Russia glider. Now I'm helping his wife through some of the process of selling some of his outstanding equipment:
>
> 1. A meticulous trailer.
> 2. An unfinished AC-4C kit, still in the crate, that came from Aviastroitel in Russia. The plan was for his brother to complete the kit (sadly, his brother passed away from cancer a couple of years ago). I think it's taking up space in the barn....you would need a flat bed truck/trailer to move this thing. I DO NOT think it was a perfect kit...there maybe have been defects in the factory assembly of wings (maybe curing rates? maybe molds, I don't exactly know). However, parts wise, you'd have a set of never-used flight controls, linkage, seat pan, etc.
>
> Looking for advice on selling, pricing, and maybe somebody would want the kit....probably a current owner of an AC-4 that has space.
>
> Kindly,
> Erik van Weezendonk
> Northern Virginia
I think before you could put a value on the kit, you'd need to know exactly what the problem with it was first. Are there any parts missing? Would the kit fit in the other AC-4 trailer and could it be purchased as a package deal?
Stephen Szikora
May 8th 20, 01:04 AM
Russian workers and vodka.
I'll try to get details re:issues.
The crate/container would not fit inside the trailer as is.
Absolutely the whole kit and caboodle could be sold together. Anne (his wife) wasn't isn't to soaring...she breeds and sells dogs.
RIP Pete Maynard.
Nick Kennedy[_3_]
May 8th 20, 03:48 AM
Not quite sure I'd call it a MASSIVE fire sale but I believe prices will be coming down, quite a bit, on used ships.
Huge unemployment is here now and getting worse daily, and its only I'm afraid to get much worse over the Next 6 months. When you can't pay your mandatory food, power
wifi trash rent mortgage car payment that asset you have for recreation has got to go and fast.
This Virus is likely to be with us for at least 20-24 months IMHO, we've got to get used to it
One thing for sure; It is very contagious and now it is everywhere.
Nick
T
And I’m also looking for a 2 seater, preferably something better than a 2-33 and preferably a mild project (read cheap). Is there a Lark sitting around out there somewhere?
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 12:21:48 PM UTC-7, wrote:
> Question for u guys. Do you think we are going to see a massive glider fire sale after this china virus deal subsides? I wonder if this crisis and its associated lack of flying opportunities is going to convince many of the non-die-hard guys to leave the sport and divest themselves of many good older machines.
I'd guess the desirability of motorgliders will increase.
On Thursday, May 7, 2020 at 10:48:43 PM UTC-4, Nick Kennedy wrote:
> Not quite sure I'd call it a MASSIVE fire sale but I believe prices will be coming down, quite a bit, on used ships.
> Huge unemployment is here now and getting worse daily, and its only I'm afraid to get much worse over the Next 6 months. When you can't pay your mandatory food, power
> wifi trash rent mortgage car payment that asset you have for recreation has got to go and fast.
> This Virus is likely to be with us for at least 20-24 months IMHO, we've got to get used to it
> One thing for sure; It is very contagious and now it is everywhere.
> Nick
> T
No it isn't going to be with us for 20-24 months. But they will keep telling us that to keep us under house arrest. And if it is 'very contagious' as you say everyone is going to get it anyway so start the world, mourn the dead, celebrate the newborns and get on with it. People need to think for themselves. Your precious experts are clowns. Here is what the architect of the global shutdown has been up to, doesn't sound like he believes in his own medicine: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8289921/Scientist-advice-led-lockdown-QUITS-breaking-restrictions-meet-married-lover.html
Martin Gregorie[_6_]
May 8th 20, 03:16 PM
On Fri, 08 May 2020 06:51:56 -0700, greggballou wrote:
> Here is what the architect of the global shutdown has been up to,
> doesn't sound like he believes in his own medicine:
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8289921/Scientist-advice-led-
lockdown-QUITS-breaking-restrictions-meet-married-lover.html
If you believe anything you see in the Daily Fail, then you'll definitely
want to buy this bridge I happen to own across the East River in NYC.
--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org
Lark sitting at Shell Creek in Florida many years. Check registry.faa.gov
Sci Fi
May 8th 20, 03:24 PM
>
>No it isn't going to be with us for 20-24 months.
On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 9:52:00 AM UTC-4, wrote:
> On Thursday, May 7, 2020 at 10:48:43 PM UTC-4, Nick Kennedy wrote:
> > Not quite sure I'd call it a MASSIVE fire sale but I believe prices will be coming down, quite a bit, on used ships.
> > Huge unemployment is here now and getting worse daily, and its only I'm afraid to get much worse over the Next 6 months. When you can't pay your mandatory food, power
> > wifi trash rent mortgage car payment that asset you have for recreation has got to go and fast.
> > This Virus is likely to be with us for at least 20-24 months IMHO, we've got to get used to it
> > One thing for sure; It is very contagious and now it is everywhere.
> > Nick
> > T
>
> No it isn't going to be with us for 20-24 months. But they will keep telling us that to keep us under house arrest. And if it is 'very contagious' as you say everyone is going to get it anyway so start the world, mourn the dead, celebrate the newborns and get on with it. People need to think for themselves. Your precious experts are clowns. Here is what the architect of the global shutdown has been up to, doesn't sound like he believes in his own medicine: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8289921/Scientist-advice-led-lockdown-QUITS-breaking-restrictions-meet-married-lover.html
If you really think it is all a joke and/or fake, do us all a favor and volunteer in a hospital in NYC - and proudly decline any PPE. Walk right in wearing your swim-trunks and flip-flops and tend to those in the ICU. Let us know how it works out for you!
Uli
'AS'
On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 10:54:54 AM UTC-4, AS wrote:
> On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 9:52:00 AM UTC-4, wrote:
> > On Thursday, May 7, 2020 at 10:48:43 PM UTC-4, Nick Kennedy wrote:
> > > Not quite sure I'd call it a MASSIVE fire sale but I believe prices will be coming down, quite a bit, on used ships.
> > > Huge unemployment is here now and getting worse daily, and its only I'm afraid to get much worse over the Next 6 months. When you can't pay your mandatory food, power
> > > wifi trash rent mortgage car payment that asset you have for recreation has got to go and fast.
> > > This Virus is likely to be with us for at least 20-24 months IMHO, we've got to get used to it
> > > One thing for sure; It is very contagious and now it is everywhere.
> > > Nick
> > > T
> >
> > No it isn't going to be with us for 20-24 months. But they will keep telling us that to keep us under house arrest. And if it is 'very contagious' as you say everyone is going to get it anyway so start the world, mourn the dead, celebrate the newborns and get on with it. People need to think for themselves. Your precious experts are clowns. Here is what the architect of the global shutdown has been up to, doesn't sound like he believes in his own medicine: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8289921/Scientist-advice-led-lockdown-QUITS-breaking-restrictions-meet-married-lover.html
>
> If you really think it is all a joke and/or fake, do us all a favor and volunteer in a hospital in NYC - and proudly decline any PPE. Walk right in wearing your swim-trunks and flip-flops and tend to those in the ICU. Let us know how it works out for you!
>
> Uli
> 'AS'
Hospitals are empty and going broke. The death toll from poverty is going to outstrip the virus by many many times. If you believe, the answer is simple stay home and stay scared. If you need anything just remember the world might be too scared or legally unable to help you out.
On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 10:16:56 AM UTC-4, Martin Gregorie wrote:
> On Fri, 08 May 2020 06:51:56 -0700, greggballou wrote:
>
> > Here is what the architect of the global shutdown has been up to,
> > doesn't sound like he believes in his own medicine:
> > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8289921/Scientist-advice-led-
> lockdown-QUITS-breaking-restrictions-meet-married-lover.html
>
> If you believe anything you see in the Daily Fail, then you'll definitely
> want to buy this bridge I happen to own across the East River in NYC.
>
>
> --
> Martin | martin at
> Gregorie | gregorie dot org
Nice try. Same story in the telegraph link below. No idea of the hierarchy of British newspapers, story also covered by CNN, BBC, and a bunch of other normal outlets. Mr Lockdown doesn't believe in your new religion even though he created it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/
Don Johnstone[_4_]
May 8th 20, 07:03 PM
At 13:51 08 May 2020, wrote:
>On Thursday, May 7, 2020 at 10:48:43 PM UTC-4, Nick Kennedy
wrote:
>> Not quite sure I'd call it a MASSIVE fire sale but I believe prices
will
>=
>be coming down, quite a bit, on used ships.
>> Huge unemployment is here now and getting worse daily, and its
only I'm
>a=
>fraid to get much worse over the Next 6 months. When you can't
pay your
>man=
>datory food, power=20
>> wifi trash rent mortgage car payment that asset you have for
recreation
>h=
>as got to go and fast.
>> This Virus is likely to be with us for at least 20-24 months IMHO,
we've
>=
>got to get used to it
>> One thing for sure; It is very contagious and now it is
everywhere.
>> Nick
>> T
>
>No it isn't going to be with us for 20-24 months. But they will
keep
>telli=
>ng us that to keep us under house arrest. And if it is 'very
contagious'
>a=
>s you say everyone is going to get it anyway so start the world,
mourn the
>=
>dead, celebrate the newborns and get on with it. People need to
think for
>=
>themselves. Your precious experts are clowns. Here is what the
architect
>=
>of the global shutdown has been up to, doesn't sound like he
believes in
>hi=
>s own medicine:
>https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8289921/Scientist-=
>advice-led-lockdown-QUITS-breaking-restrictions-meet-married-
lover.html
You really must explain how you do it
Martin Gregorie[_6_]
May 8th 20, 08:23 PM
On Fri, 08 May 2020 10:54:56 -0700, greggballou wrote:
> Nice try. Same story in the telegraph link below.
>
That was a general observation, not specifically about that story. The
Sun, Daily Fail and the Torygraph are not news sources I trust.
If its on BBC Radio Four or in New Scientist its probably true.
> Mr Lockdown doesn't believe in your new
> religion even though he created it.
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-
> scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/
Thats a common problem with some elements of UK government and senior
civil servants: they are so far up their own arses they don't think the
rules they impose can possibly apply to themselves.
But don't make the mistake of thinking that this necessarily makes their
science invalid if they're scientists. Thats unlikely because peer review
is a fairly good way of keeping scientists honest. Mistakes and fraud
WILL be remembered. Remember Andrew Wakefield of MMR infamy? He's
thoroughly discredited these days and ignored by everybody outside the
lunatic fringe.
--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org
On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 1:41:23 PM UTC-4, wrote:
> On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 10:54:54 AM UTC-4, AS wrote:
> > On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 9:52:00 AM UTC-4, wrote:
> > > On Thursday, May 7, 2020 at 10:48:43 PM UTC-4, Nick Kennedy wrote:
> > > > Not quite sure I'd call it a MASSIVE fire sale but I believe prices will be coming down, quite a bit, on used ships.
> > > > Huge unemployment is here now and getting worse daily, and its only I'm afraid to get much worse over the Next 6 months. When you can't pay your mandatory food, power
> > > > wifi trash rent mortgage car payment that asset you have for recreation has got to go and fast.
> > > > This Virus is likely to be with us for at least 20-24 months IMHO, we've got to get used to it
> > > > One thing for sure; It is very contagious and now it is everywhere.
> > > > Nick
> > > > T
> > >
> > > No it isn't going to be with us for 20-24 months. But they will keep telling us that to keep us under house arrest. And if it is 'very contagious' as you say everyone is going to get it anyway so start the world, mourn the dead, celebrate the newborns and get on with it. People need to think for themselves. Your precious experts are clowns. Here is what the architect of the global shutdown has been up to, doesn't sound like he believes in his own medicine: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8289921/Scientist-advice-led-lockdown-QUITS-breaking-restrictions-meet-married-lover.html
> >
> > If you really think it is all a joke and/or fake, do us all a favor and volunteer in a hospital in NYC - and proudly decline any PPE. Walk right in wearing your swim-trunks and flip-flops and tend to those in the ICU. Let us know how it works out for you!
> >
> > Uli
> > 'AS'
>
> Hospitals are empty and going broke. The death toll from poverty is going to outstrip the virus by many many times. If you believe, the answer is simple stay home and stay scared. If you need anything just remember the world might be too scared or legally unable to help you out.
Time for your meds and your tin foil hat ....
Uli
'AS'
Frank Whiteley
May 8th 20, 09:18 PM
On Thursday, May 7, 2020 at 2:34:46 PM UTC-6, wrote:
> Sad story and maybe somebody can help....
>
> In early February, a good friend was killed in his AC-4C Russia glider. Now I'm helping his wife through some of the process of selling some of his outstanding equipment:
>
> 1. A meticulous trailer.
> 2. An unfinished AC-4C kit, still in the crate, that came from Aviastroitel in Russia. The plan was for his brother to complete the kit (sadly, his brother passed away from cancer a couple of years ago). I think it's taking up space in the barn....you would need a flat bed truck/trailer to move this thing. I DO NOT think it was a perfect kit...there maybe have been defects in the factory assembly of wings (maybe curing rates? maybe molds, I don't exactly know). However, parts wise, you'd have a set of never-used flight controls, linkage, seat pan, etc.
>
> Looking for advice on selling, pricing, and maybe somebody would want the kit....probably a current owner of an AC-4 that has space.
>
> Kindly,
> Erik van Weezendonk
> Northern Virginia
PM'd you, but haven't heard back.
Frank Whiteley
I think in this specific case, however, Neil Ferguson has a bit of a reputation for getting it not only wrong but way wrong. For example:
He was behind research resulting in the destruction of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that 150,000 people could die.
Predicted in 2002 that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from mad cow.
Predicted in 2005 that up to 150 million people would be killed from bird flu. Reality was that only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
Ferguson’s advice in 2009 said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would kill 65,000 Brits. Reality was that swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.
Pretty hard to take such a guy seriously but that's exactly what happened when he said there would be 2.2 million dead in USA and 500,000 dead in UK. Oops, missed it by "that" much...
On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 2:24:00 PM UTC-5, Martin Gregorie wrote:
> On Fri, 08 May 2020 10:54:56 -0700, greggballou wrote:
>
> > Nice try. Same story in the telegraph link below.
> >
> That was a general observation, not specifically about that story. The
> Sun, Daily Fail and the Torygraph are not news sources I trust.
>
> If its on BBC Radio Four or in New Scientist its probably true.
>
> > Mr Lockdown doesn't believe in your new
> > religion even though he created it.
> > https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-
> > scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/
>
> Thats a common problem with some elements of UK government and senior
> civil servants: they are so far up their own arses they don't think the
> rules they impose can possibly apply to themselves.
>
> But don't make the mistake of thinking that this necessarily makes their
> science invalid if they're scientists. Thats unlikely because peer review
> is a fairly good way of keeping scientists honest. Mistakes and fraud
> WILL be remembered. Remember Andrew Wakefield of MMR infamy? He's
> thoroughly discredited these days and ignored by everybody outside the
> lunatic fringe.
>
>
> --
> Martin | martin at
> Gregorie | gregorie dot org
Shaun Wheeler
May 9th 20, 01:08 AM
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 11:11:35 PM UTC-5, Steve Leonard wrote:
> Dang it! Got my hopes up that the sale was starting :-)
>
> Steve Leonard
> CEO of Steve's Home for Wayward Gliders
You know the US DOJ still has an anti-trust and monopoly division, right?
LOoooOOL
Martin Gregorie[_6_]
May 9th 20, 02:08 AM
On Fri, 08 May 2020 17:03:58 -0700, resigler wrote:
> I think in this specific case, however, Neil Ferguson has a bit of a
> reputation for getting it not only wrong but way wrong. For example:
>
Fair comment. I don't remember hearing his name before he popped up this
time.
> He was behind research resulting in the destruction of 11 million sheep
> and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also
> predicted that 150,000 people could die.
>
I'm uncertain whether he was right or not about the foot & mouth cull. It
certainly spread very rapidly (and stopped all gliding apart from local
flying). Certainly it would have been unwise to eat anything that came
off infected farms, so from that POV, animals that couldn't be eaten had
to be killed and disposed of alongside the large number that the F&M
killed: it was very contagious anfd stock were never allowed off infected
farms.
But I don't recall much concern that it was likely to spread to people.
Yes, there was a clamp-down on rural travel, but that was more to stop
F&M spreading to other farms then from worries that people might catch it.
There was what seemed like an inordinate number of farm animals being
swapped and generally trucked round between farms in the run-up to that
F&M epidemic. Do you know if he said anything about that?
> Predicted in 2002 that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow
> disease in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from mad cow.
>
Now that was a rum do, and almost entirely due to the practise of feeding
bits of slaughtered animals to other herbivorous animals. Again, I don't
recall anything being attributed to him - just that the perps seem to
have all got off rather lightly.
> Predicted in 2005 that up to 150 million people would be killed from
> bird flu. Reality was that only 282 people died worldwide from the
> disease between 2003 and 2009.
>
> Ferguson’s advice in 2009 said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was
> that the swine flu would kill 65,000 Brits. Reality was that swine flu
> killed 457 people in the U.K.
>
> Pretty hard to take such a guy seriously but that's exactly what
> happened when he said there would be 2.2 million dead in USA and 500,000
> dead in UK. Oops, missed it by "that" much...
>
The real question seems to be not how could he be so wrong, but why did
he ever rise to the prominence he achieved recently. Maybe nothing more
worthy than Buggins Turn: if you stay in the civil service long enough
and suck up to enough of your superiors you'll rise, like scum, to the
surface.
I've had contracts in various departments, so have seen their top people
in action: they aren't all that impressive when seen from the bottom.
Gilbert & Sullivan had it spot on when they wrote "Pinafore" and included
the couplet:
So stick tight to your desks and never go to sea,
And you're sure to be the ruler of the Queen's Nayvee
Looks like some things never change.
--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org
Frank,
Sorry, somebody else just said you were looking for me...and I never saw it.. Weird.
Anyway, if you’d like to talk about the Russia or the trailer, reach out to me at 703-786-0553 or via my normal email at .
Really sorry for the confusion.
Cheers,
Erik
b4soaring
May 9th 20, 01:56 PM
What the predictions said was "if we do nothing, something bad will happen, but only if we do nothing.
Something is then done.
Something bad doesn't happen, at least not quite so bad.
It doesn't mean the predictions were wrong, just that the worst case scenarios were prevented:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqzicvDVcKg
On Saturday, 9 May 2020 01:04:01 UTC+1, wrote:
> I think in this specific case, however, Neil Ferguson has a bit of a reputation for getting it not only wrong but way wrong. For example:
>
> He was behind research resulting in the destruction of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that 150,000 people could die.
>
> Predicted in 2002 that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from mad cow.
>
> Predicted in 2005 that up to 150 million people would be killed from bird flu. Reality was that only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
>
> Ferguson’s advice in 2009 said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would kill 65,000 Brits. Reality was that swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.
>
> Pretty hard to take such a guy seriously but that's exactly what happened when he said there would be 2.2 million dead in USA and 500,000 dead in UK.. Oops, missed it by "that" much...
>
> On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 2:24:00 PM UTC-5, Martin Gregorie wrote:
> > On Fri, 08 May 2020 10:54:56 -0700, greggballou wrote:
> >
> > > Nice try. Same story in the telegraph link below.
> > >
> > That was a general observation, not specifically about that story. The
> > Sun, Daily Fail and the Torygraph are not news sources I trust.
> >
> > If its on BBC Radio Four or in New Scientist its probably true.
> >
> > > Mr Lockdown doesn't believe in your new
> > > religion even though he created it.
> > > https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-
> > > scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/
> >
> > Thats a common problem with some elements of UK government and senior
> > civil servants: they are so far up their own arses they don't think the
> > rules they impose can possibly apply to themselves.
> >
> > But don't make the mistake of thinking that this necessarily makes their
> > science invalid if they're scientists. Thats unlikely because peer review
> > is a fairly good way of keeping scientists honest. Mistakes and fraud
> > WILL be remembered. Remember Andrew Wakefield of MMR infamy? He's
> > thoroughly discredited these days and ignored by everybody outside the
> > lunatic fringe.
> >
> >
> > --
> > Martin | martin at
> > Gregorie | gregorie dot org
I guess we'll need to philosophically disagree on this point. Using your logic anyone at any time can grossly over/under predict a given scenario in order to drive their desired behavior. Apply that sensationalized prediction logic to climate change, environmental pollution, deforestation, acid rain, inflation, education, natural resource depletion (specifically fossil fuels), landfills - all of which have been or are being done - and you'll find the basis for "proving" anything that will give the predictor more power, more budget, more news cycles, etc.
Nope, I'll take a well thought out, historically consistent, and mathematically sound prediction every time.
Robert
On Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 7:56:10 AM UTC-5, b4soaring wrote:
> What the predictions said was "if we do nothing, something bad will happen, but only if we do nothing.
>
> Something is then done.
>
> Something bad doesn't happen, at least not quite so bad.
>
> It doesn't mean the predictions were wrong, just that the worst case scenarios were prevented:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqzicvDVcKg
>
>
> On Saturday, 9 May 2020 01:04:01 UTC+1, wrote:
> > I think in this specific case, however, Neil Ferguson has a bit of a reputation for getting it not only wrong but way wrong. For example:
> >
> > He was behind research resulting in the destruction of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that 150,000 people could die.
> >
> > Predicted in 2002 that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from mad cow.
> >
> > Predicted in 2005 that up to 150 million people would be killed from bird flu. Reality was that only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
> >
> > Ferguson’s advice in 2009 said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would kill 65,000 Brits. Reality was that swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.
> >
> > Pretty hard to take such a guy seriously but that's exactly what happened when he said there would be 2.2 million dead in USA and 500,000 dead in UK. Oops, missed it by "that" much...
> >
> > On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 2:24:00 PM UTC-5, Martin Gregorie wrote:
> > > On Fri, 08 May 2020 10:54:56 -0700, greggballou wrote:
> > >
> > > > Nice try. Same story in the telegraph link below.
> > > >
> > > That was a general observation, not specifically about that story. The
> > > Sun, Daily Fail and the Torygraph are not news sources I trust.
> > >
> > > If its on BBC Radio Four or in New Scientist its probably true.
> > >
> > > > Mr Lockdown doesn't believe in your new
> > > > religion even though he created it.
> > > > https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-
> > > > scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/
> > >
> > > Thats a common problem with some elements of UK government and senior
> > > civil servants: they are so far up their own arses they don't think the
> > > rules they impose can possibly apply to themselves.
> > >
> > > But don't make the mistake of thinking that this necessarily makes their
> > > science invalid if they're scientists. Thats unlikely because peer review
> > > is a fairly good way of keeping scientists honest. Mistakes and fraud
> > > WILL be remembered. Remember Andrew Wakefield of MMR infamy? He's
> > > thoroughly discredited these days and ignored by everybody outside the
> > > lunatic fringe.
> > >
> > >
> > > --
> > > Martin | martin at
> > > Gregorie | gregorie dot org
Leave them to cower in their homes swaddled in the comfort of their humiliation masks
Jonathan St. Cloud
May 9th 20, 07:44 PM
On Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 10:46:09 AM UTC-7, wrote:
> Leave them to cower in their homes swaddled in the comfort of their humiliation masks
WTF? If I was new to this group I would be looking to find the group that actually discussed Recreational Aviation Soaring! Wearing a mask to keep others from breathing your germs and the germs of other is not humiliation, it is being respectful to mankind. Oh my God you should be ashamed of yourself as I am for you with such an ignoramus statement.
Hi Bruce c
I have a phoebus trailerfor sail if you would like to drop me a note.
Lewis
Harris hill soaring corp.
Bruce! Weirsdale club, towing out of where? Palomino? Would send you private message but don't know how.
Steve Bralla
May 10th 20, 03:35 AM
On Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 6:37:51 AM UTC-7, wrote:
> I guess we'll need to philosophically disagree on this point. Using your logic anyone at any time can grossly over/under predict a given scenario in order to drive their desired behavior. Apply that sensationalized prediction logic to climate change, environmental pollution, deforestation, acid rain, inflation, education, natural resource depletion (specifically fossil fuels), landfills - all of which have been or are being done - and you'll find the basis for "proving" anything that will give the predictor more power, more budget, more news cycles, etc.
>
> Nope, I'll take a well thought out, historically consistent, and mathematically sound prediction every time.
>
> Robert
>
I once rode in a car going 120 MPH on the freeway, without seat belts, and I didn't die or even be in an accident "proving" that driving that fast is safe and we don't need speed limit laws.
Liberate the freeways!
John Godfrey (QT)[_2_]
May 10th 20, 12:40 PM
On Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 8:56:10 AM UTC-4, b4soaring wrote:
> What the predictions said was "if we do nothing, something bad will happen, but only if we do nothing.
>
> Something is then done.
>
> Something bad doesn't happen, at least not quite so bad.
>
> It doesn't mean the predictions were wrong, just that the worst case scenarios were prevented:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqzicvDVcKg
>
>
> On Saturday, 9 May 2020 01:04:01 UTC+1, wrote:
> > I think in this specific case, however, Neil Ferguson has a bit of a reputation for getting it not only wrong but way wrong. For example:
> >
> > He was behind research resulting in the destruction of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that 150,000 people could die.
> >
> > Predicted in 2002 that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from mad cow.
> >
> > Predicted in 2005 that up to 150 million people would be killed from bird flu. Reality was that only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
> >
> > Ferguson’s advice in 2009 said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would kill 65,000 Brits. Reality was that swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.
> >
> > Pretty hard to take such a guy seriously but that's exactly what happened when he said there would be 2.2 million dead in USA and 500,000 dead in UK. Oops, missed it by "that" much...
> >
> > On Friday, May 8, 2020 at 2:24:00 PM UTC-5, Martin Gregorie wrote:
> > > On Fri, 08 May 2020 10:54:56 -0700, greggballou wrote:
> > >
> > > > Nice try. Same story in the telegraph link below.
> > > >
> > > That was a general observation, not specifically about that story. The
> > > Sun, Daily Fail and the Torygraph are not news sources I trust.
> > >
> > > If its on BBC Radio Four or in New Scientist its probably true.
> > >
> > > > Mr Lockdown doesn't believe in your new
> > > > religion even though he created it.
> > > > https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-
> > > > scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/
> > >
> > > Thats a common problem with some elements of UK government and senior
> > > civil servants: they are so far up their own arses they don't think the
> > > rules they impose can possibly apply to themselves.
> > >
> > > But don't make the mistake of thinking that this necessarily makes their
> > > science invalid if they're scientists. Thats unlikely because peer review
> > > is a fairly good way of keeping scientists honest. Mistakes and fraud
> > > WILL be remembered. Remember Andrew Wakefield of MMR infamy? He's
> > > thoroughly discredited these days and ignored by everybody outside the
> > > lunatic fringe.
> > >
> > >
> > > --
> > > Martin | martin at
> > > Gregorie | gregorie dot org
Good video. Especially highlighting the impact of the predictions on behaviour and the subsequent lowering of bad outcome. It's too bad that some posters seem to spend a lot of time looking for consipiracy behind, under, near and inside every stone when anything impacts or their very self-centered world view.
On Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 8:56:10 AM UTC-4, b4soaring wrote:
> What the predictions said was "if we do nothing, something bad will happen, but only if we do nothing.
>
> Something is then done.
>
> Something bad doesn't happen, at least not quite so bad.
>
> It doesn't mean the predictions were wrong, just that the worst case scenarios were prevented:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqzicvDVcKg
>
>
> On Saturday, 9 May 2020 01:04:01 UTC+1, wrote:
> > I think in this specific case, however, Neil Ferguson has a bit of a reputation for getting it not only wrong but way wrong. For example:
> >
> > He was behind research resulting in the destruction of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that 150,000 people could die.
> >
> > Predicted in 2002 that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from mad cow.
> >
> > Predicted in 2005 that up to 150 million people would be killed from bird flu. Reality was that only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
> >
> > Ferguson’s advice in 2009 said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would kill 65,000 Brits. Reality was that swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.
Bingo. Just like the Y2K "bug" was not a hoax, rather it was resolved by proactive investment of billions.
Funny how many of the same people who want nothing done about pandemics are perfectly OK with trillions spent, and civil rights trampled, as long as it is perceived as a military response to a human, not natural, threat. The Soviet Union never attacked the US, does that mean those who advised to build the weapons were totally wrong?
IADPE
May 10th 20, 03:14 PM
It's too bad that more and more threads here end up not about soaring but instead about a small number of poster's political/ social/ epidemiological views.
Should you feel the need to expound on such things, there surely is a forum just for that somewhere.
THIS forum is about SOARING. How about we stay on task?
Now, about this fire sale? In the last two economic downturns (9/11, 2008) were prices and availability impacted that much?
On Sunday, May 10, 2020 at 10:14:38 AM UTC-4, IADPE wrote:
> It's too bad that more and more threads here end up not about soaring but instead about a small number of poster's political/ social/ epidemiological views.
>
> Should you feel the need to expound on such things, there surely is a forum just for that somewhere.
>
> THIS forum is about SOARING. How about we stay on task?
>
> Now, about this fire sale? In the last two economic downturns (9/11, 2008) were prices and availability impacted that much?
You are on an old newsgroup on the internet, it is a wonder there is any soaring content here at all. For all the people that want soaring only content build a forum, moderate it as you see fit. Expecting exclusive content on an old newsgroup is insane. This might be last one still on topic.
I enjoy the variety of perspectives here, be they political, sociological, meteorological, mechanical, or philosophical. Since so many guys are stuck without the opportunity to soar or better yet compete at soaring, they have to release their aggressions and frustrations somewhere. Here is as good a place as any lol.
On Sunday, May 10, 2020 at 10:03:28 AM UTC-4, wrote:
> On Saturday, May 9, 2020 at 8:56:10 AM UTC-4, b4soaring wrote:
> > What the predictions said was "if we do nothing, something bad will happen, but only if we do nothing.
> >
> > Something is then done.
> >
> > Something bad doesn't happen, at least not quite so bad.
> >
> > It doesn't mean the predictions were wrong, just that the worst case scenarios were prevented:
> > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqzicvDVcKg
> >
> >
> > On Saturday, 9 May 2020 01:04:01 UTC+1, wrote:
> > > I think in this specific case, however, Neil Ferguson has a bit of a reputation for getting it not only wrong but way wrong. For example:
> > >
> > > He was behind research resulting in the destruction of 11 million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that 150,000 people could die.
> > >
> > > Predicted in 2002 that up to 50,000 people would die from mad cow disease in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from mad cow.
> > >
> > > Predicted in 2005 that up to 150 million people would be killed from bird flu. Reality was that only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
> > >
> > > Ferguson’s advice in 2009 said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the swine flu would kill 65,000 Brits. Reality was that swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.
>
>
> Bingo. Just like the Y2K "bug" was not a hoax, rather it was resolved by proactive investment of billions.
>
> Funny how many of the same people who want nothing done about pandemics are perfectly OK with trillions spent, and civil rights trampled, as long as it is perceived as a military response to a human, not natural, threat. The Soviet Union never attacked the US, does that mean those who advised to build the weapons were totally wrong?
Moshe what makes you think the folks who aren't buying into the virus fear plandemic bought into the Russian bear fear plandemic? Both are the same disease - Fear manufactured and pushed for profit and control. Most know Christian Russians are our greatest ally.
Pardon me while I fashion protective masks from worn out tshirts while hiding under my desk to protect myself from nuclear war.
On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 2:21:48 PM UTC-5, wrote:
> Question for u guys. Do you think we are going to see a massive glider fire sale after this china virus deal subsides? I wonder if this crisis and its associated lack of flying opportunities is going to convince many of the non-die-hard guys to leave the sport and divest themselves of many good older machines.
Naa, no near free Russia unless maybe you build it.
I don't think there will be a fire sale unless there is a major economic collapse.
Covid is a temporary damper, but the joy of flying is still around.
Maybe some new feature, like easy self launching could obsolete the existing fleet?
> ... I DO NOT think it was a perfect kit...there maybe have been defects in the factory assembly of wings (maybe curing rates? maybe molds, I don't exactly know).
I toured the Aviastroitel factory in Moscow in 1999, when the AC-4 was being produced. All the structure was formed in a former Soviet aircraft factory outside Moscow, and then brought to Aviastroitel for finishing, completion and testing. All the structure was of good quality, but required a lot of finishing. So it could just be that a lot of finishing is required and those are the "defects" mentioned. After visiting Schleicher and Schempp-Hirth, the visit to Aviastroitel was fascinating. The Russians do an amazing job with very little.
Jonathan St. Cloud
May 12th 20, 04:25 PM
On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 at 7:14:59 AM UTC-7, wrote:
> > ... I DO NOT think it was a perfect kit...there maybe have been defects in the factory assembly of wings (maybe curing rates? maybe molds, I don't exactly know).
>
> I toured the Aviastroitel factory in Moscow in 1999, when the AC-4 was being produced. All the structure was formed in a former Soviet aircraft factory outside Moscow, and then brought to Aviastroitel for finishing, completion and testing. All the structure was of good quality, but required a lot of finishing. So it could just be that a lot of finishing is required and those are the "defects" mentioned. After visiting Schleicher and Schempp-Hirth, the visit to Aviastroitel was fascinating. The Russians do an amazing job with very little.
I have traveled in Eastern Block countries. I was always amazed and how well the Russians lived on so little!
Could be their education level was very high, they are extremely strong people. Interesting place, it has been 20 years but I valued my time getting to know these people. As for the glider, I have no comment.
Martin Gregorie[_6_]
May 12th 20, 06:02 PM
On Tue, 12 May 2020 08:25:02 -0700, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
> On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 at 7:14:59 AM UTC-7, wrote:
>> > ... I DO NOT think it was a perfect kit...there maybe have been
>> > defects in the factory assembly of wings (maybe curing rates? maybe
>> > molds, I don't exactly know).
>>
>> I toured the Aviastroitel factory in Moscow in 1999, when the AC-4 was
>> being produced. All the structure was formed in a former Soviet
>> aircraft factory outside Moscow, and then brought to Aviastroitel for
>> finishing, completion and testing. All the structure was of good
>> quality, but required a lot of finishing. So it could just be that a
>> lot of finishing is required and those are the "defects" mentioned.
>> After visiting Schleicher and Schempp-Hirth, the visit to Aviastroitel
>> was fascinating. The Russians do an amazing job with very little.
>
> I have traveled in Eastern Block countries. I was always amazed and how
> well the Russians lived on so little!
> Could be their education level was very high, they are extremely strong
> people. Interesting place, it has been 20 years but I valued my time
> getting to know these people. As for the glider, I have no comment.
I've also travelled in the old Eastern Block (Hungary, Czechoslovakia and
Yugoslavia as was), mainly for free flight model competitions. I met
Russian and Ukrainian model fliers there and at World and European
Championships between 1975 and 2003. Drank a certain amount of vodka with
them too.
Fine fellows with a sharp, ironic sense of humour. I remember a fairly
liquid session with Alex Andriukov (he moved to the US and joined the
Macready organisation when the USSR broke up). We were comparing cities,
as you do, and we were amazed at the low cost of public transport in
Kiev. Alex just grinned and said "In USSR we have a saying 'State
pretends to pay us and we pretend to work'".
Most of them spoke good, idiomatic English and had obviously had a very
good education. While the USSR existed their education system was free
through to PhD if you were good enough, and they had a free night school
system available for those who dropped out at the minimum school leaving
age and then, a few years later, realised that they really needed some
qualifications.
--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org
Dick Schreder told the story of the Soviet pilots at the 1965 International contest in England would clandestinely come over and take measurements of his HP-12 when they thought he wasn't looking. But at the end of the contest, he gave them a complete set of drawings as a goodwill gesture.
He also told the story that the Russian pilot asked to fly the HP-12. Schreder, said "sure", but only if he could fly the Soviet KAI-14. After the flight, Schreder told the Russian pilot he should receive the Soviet Medal of Valor for flying that ship in the poor weather and small fields of England.
ProfJ
May 12th 20, 07:14 PM
On Thursday, 7 May 2020 14:34:46 UTC-6, wrote:
> Sad story and maybe somebody can help....
>
> In early February, a good friend was killed in his AC-4C Russia glider. Now I'm helping his wife through some of the process of selling some of his outstanding equipment:
>
> 1. A meticulous trailer.
> 2. An unfinished AC-4C kit, still in the crate, that came from Aviastroitel in Russia. The plan was for his brother to complete the kit (sadly, his brother passed away from cancer a couple of years ago). I think it's taking up space in the barn....you would need a flat bed truck/trailer to move this thing. I DO NOT think it was a perfect kit...there maybe have been defects in the factory assembly of wings (maybe curing rates? maybe molds, I don't exactly know). However, parts wise, you'd have a set of never-used flight controls, linkage, seat pan, etc.
>
> Looking for advice on selling, pricing, and maybe somebody would want the kit....probably a current owner of an AC-4 that has space.
>
> Kindly,
> Erik van Weezendonk
> Northern Virginia
Hi Erik,
I'm interested in this - if it's still available, please PM me at jtapson at gmail etc.
regards,
Jon
Jonathan St. Cloud
May 12th 20, 10:13 PM
On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 at 10:02:13 AM UTC-7, Martin Gregorie wrote:
> On Tue, 12 May 2020 08:25:02 -0700, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
>
> > On Tuesday, May 12, 2020 at 7:14:59 AM UTC-7, wrote:
> >> > ... I DO NOT think it was a perfect kit...there maybe have been
> >> > defects in the factory assembly of wings (maybe curing rates? maybe
> >> > molds, I don't exactly know).
> >>
> >> I toured the Aviastroitel factory in Moscow in 1999, when the AC-4 was
> >> being produced. All the structure was formed in a former Soviet
> >> aircraft factory outside Moscow, and then brought to Aviastroitel for
> >> finishing, completion and testing. All the structure was of good
> >> quality, but required a lot of finishing. So it could just be that a
> >> lot of finishing is required and those are the "defects" mentioned.
> >> After visiting Schleicher and Schempp-Hirth, the visit to Aviastroitel
> >> was fascinating. The Russians do an amazing job with very little.
> >
> > I have traveled in Eastern Block countries. I was always amazed and how
> > well the Russians lived on so little!
> > Could be their education level was very high, they are extremely strong
> > people. Interesting place, it has been 20 years but I valued my time
> > getting to know these people. As for the glider, I have no comment.
>
> I've also travelled in the old Eastern Block (Hungary, Czechoslovakia and
> Yugoslavia as was), mainly for free flight model competitions. I met
> Russian and Ukrainian model fliers there and at World and European
> Championships between 1975 and 2003. Drank a certain amount of vodka with
> them too.
>
> Fine fellows with a sharp, ironic sense of humour. I remember a fairly
> liquid session with Alex Andriukov (he moved to the US and joined the
> Macready organisation when the USSR broke up). We were comparing cities,
> as you do, and we were amazed at the low cost of public transport in
> Kiev. Alex just grinned and said "In USSR we have a saying 'State
> pretends to pay us and we pretend to work'".
>
> Most of them spoke good, idiomatic English and had obviously had a very
> good education. While the USSR existed their education system was free
> through to PhD if you were good enough, and they had a free night school
> system available for those who dropped out at the minimum school leaving
> age and then, a few years later, realised that they really needed some
> qualifications.
>
>
> --
> Martin | martin at
> Gregorie | gregorie dot org
The USSR paid good students to go to college and to get higher degrees. I was also stunned at the level of detail and expertise in any field. I met people that went to college on a scholarship for film projection. In their curriculum was two years of EE and film direction, production and of course the classics. If you earned a degree in dance or astrophysics, you were still well educated in music, literature, art and all aspects of your field.. Their Md's were required to earn PhD's after five years. I meet people living on $70 a month, still dressing very fashionable, highly educated and one would not know how little they lived on until you were invited into their homes. One on one I found them to been very honest and interesting. Not real big on following rules though.
Martin Gregorie[_6_]
May 12th 20, 11:20 PM
On Tue, 12 May 2020 14:13:05 -0700, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
> Not real big on following rules though.
True. I've always liked a story a British control-line flyer, Dave,
told: Dave flew team-race, but (of course) knew all the Russian speed
fliers as well: all these guys built their own engines. One of them was a
QA inspector on the Mig fighter factory and in a slow part of some day,
took a closer look at a Mig main spar and realised that it was exactly
what they all needed to make con-rods. By the end of the day the spar had
been condemned as unfit for use, chopped into 300mm lengths and, that
evening, posted to all his engine-building mates.
Anyway, as the USSR broke up, he and I ended up importing the Kalmykov
Cyclon 06 motors to the UK - the TOP-2 were easily the best F1j engines
I've ever had my hands on. Details here for those that like small
engines:
https://www.gregorie.org/freeflight/f1j/cyclon06/cyclon06.html
and a very good-looking engine too, just not as pretty as this:
https://www.gregorie.org/freeflight/f1j/shuriken/shuriken.html
It was the first really powerful 1cc engine to be made.
--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org
Did you get any info on any Russia AC-5M’s? Someone in our club just got one. Wiki says only 35 were built.
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