Miloch
March 19th 20, 03:21 PM
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-su-57-stealth-fighter-has-problems-engines-oil-and-weak-adversaries-134122
All the cards are stacked against the Su-57 — the price of oil is low, it’s
engines are no better than its predecessors, and the current airframes it would
replace are doing just fine.
Less Money, More Problems
Russia depends on oil and gas for revenue. If these energy exports would slow to
a trickle — or when the price for these exports is low, less money flows into
Russian state coffers.
The disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russian to put a price floor under
crude prices by cutting oil production has caused the price of oil to fall
dramatically. Increased Saudi production has flooded the market with a glut of
cheap Saudi Arabian crude, which is designed to undercut Russian exports of the
black gold.
Saudi Arabia’s consolidation of its global market share is bad news for the
Su-57, and really all Russian military acquisitions, which will likely be hit
hard in the future. There will almost certainly be less money for ambitions and
expensive projects.
Old Engines
There is another fundamental problem with the Su-57 — its engines are
essentially the same as those of the aircraft it is designed to replace, the
Su-35S.
Although the Su-57 was intended to sport the more powerful and efficient
Izdeliye 30 engines, most — if not all — prototypes and production models have
been equipped with the Al-41 engines used on the Su-35S. There have been
reported problems with the new Izdeliye 30 engines, related to reliability and
quality control.
Additionally, both the Al-41 and the Izdeliye 30 are essentially higher
performance variations of the Al-31 engines. What the Su-57 program need are
completely new engines designs — no easy feat.
The Performance Problem
Thus while the Kremlin’s Su-57 does have a better (more reduced) radar
cross-section than the Su-35S, the latter airframe is fairly advanced for a
fourth-generation fighter, and has proved itself more than capable where it has
been deployed, particularly in Syria.
In 2018, India withdrew from the planned joint Russian-Indian Su-57 development.
The Indians were evidently not convinced that the stealth and flight
characteristics could provide exactly what they were looking for — another
financial blow to the program.
Quite frankly, there just isn’t a pressing need for the Su-57 in the conflicts
in which Russia is currently involved in. The Su-35S and other aircraft are
proven platforms that can do the job, without an expensive and perhaps
ineffectual stealth aircraft.
Perpetual Preproduction
It doesn’t make a lot of sense to begin mass production of the Su-57. The
unresolved oil price war with Saudi Arabia, and potential economic cooling due
to the Coronavirus pandemic means there will be less money in the future for the
airframe. It’s also just not terribly needed yet — The Su-35S is cheaper, and
effective.
Perhaps when it becomes more obvious that the Su-35S and other aircraft are
unable to fulfill their missions, we’ll see more Su-57s in the air. Until then,
don’t expect much from Russia’s first stealth fighter.
*
All the cards are stacked against the Su-57 — the price of oil is low, it’s
engines are no better than its predecessors, and the current airframes it would
replace are doing just fine.
Less Money, More Problems
Russia depends on oil and gas for revenue. If these energy exports would slow to
a trickle — or when the price for these exports is low, less money flows into
Russian state coffers.
The disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russian to put a price floor under
crude prices by cutting oil production has caused the price of oil to fall
dramatically. Increased Saudi production has flooded the market with a glut of
cheap Saudi Arabian crude, which is designed to undercut Russian exports of the
black gold.
Saudi Arabia’s consolidation of its global market share is bad news for the
Su-57, and really all Russian military acquisitions, which will likely be hit
hard in the future. There will almost certainly be less money for ambitions and
expensive projects.
Old Engines
There is another fundamental problem with the Su-57 — its engines are
essentially the same as those of the aircraft it is designed to replace, the
Su-35S.
Although the Su-57 was intended to sport the more powerful and efficient
Izdeliye 30 engines, most — if not all — prototypes and production models have
been equipped with the Al-41 engines used on the Su-35S. There have been
reported problems with the new Izdeliye 30 engines, related to reliability and
quality control.
Additionally, both the Al-41 and the Izdeliye 30 are essentially higher
performance variations of the Al-31 engines. What the Su-57 program need are
completely new engines designs — no easy feat.
The Performance Problem
Thus while the Kremlin’s Su-57 does have a better (more reduced) radar
cross-section than the Su-35S, the latter airframe is fairly advanced for a
fourth-generation fighter, and has proved itself more than capable where it has
been deployed, particularly in Syria.
In 2018, India withdrew from the planned joint Russian-Indian Su-57 development.
The Indians were evidently not convinced that the stealth and flight
characteristics could provide exactly what they were looking for — another
financial blow to the program.
Quite frankly, there just isn’t a pressing need for the Su-57 in the conflicts
in which Russia is currently involved in. The Su-35S and other aircraft are
proven platforms that can do the job, without an expensive and perhaps
ineffectual stealth aircraft.
Perpetual Preproduction
It doesn’t make a lot of sense to begin mass production of the Su-57. The
unresolved oil price war with Saudi Arabia, and potential economic cooling due
to the Coronavirus pandemic means there will be less money in the future for the
airframe. It’s also just not terribly needed yet — The Su-35S is cheaper, and
effective.
Perhaps when it becomes more obvious that the Su-35S and other aircraft are
unable to fulfill their missions, we’ll see more Su-57s in the air. Until then,
don’t expect much from Russia’s first stealth fighter.
*