Help with 152 math

[pittss1c]

I looked at the timeline of the 152 "Attack"
http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=748233 (printed below)

I have a few questions?
given that the slowest practical weapon is about the speed of a 152 (100
kts) the slowest reasonable threat carrier moves at ~2 miles per minute

questions
1. how far away do controllers "notice" planes that are entering the
ADIZ? (how many minutes away is a threatening 152)

2. 15 miles at 11:59 and 10 miles at 12:01 (5 miles in 3 minutes): that
is heading pretty much right at the White House.
The airplane is 5 mins from the WH, and evacuation is ordered 3 minutes
later. How long does it take to evacuate 25000 people?

3. Did the fighters or blackhawk intercept the plane before or after the
threat was gone?

4. How does this math work with a kingair? When should we be evacuating
people? (or what's the point)








timeline...
11:28 a.m. ET
Controllers notice plane moving toward Air Defense Identification Zone.

11:55 a.m.
Blackhawk Helicopters dispatched.

11:58 a.m.
U.S. Capitol Police raise alert to highest internal level; evacuation
decision imminent.

Approximately 11:59 a.m.
Threat level at the White House is raised to yellow — a Cessna plane
was traveling 15 miles north of the White House.

Noon
F-16 fighter jets are scrambled from Andrews Air Force Base.

12:01 p.m.
Threat level at White House raised to orange — plane was within 10 miles.
Evacuation and moving of people to secure locations begins.
Cessna was traveling in restricted airspace toward the White House and
Capitol and the pilot was not responding to efforts to communicate with
the plane.

12:02 p.m.
Senate recesses without notice or explanation. Senate floor evacuated
amid fears of a bomb.

12:03 p.m.
Threat level raised to red — plane was within three miles of the White
House.

12:04 p.m.
U.S. Capitol Police order full evacuation of at least 25,000 people in
the Capitol, six Senate and House office buildings and the Supreme Court.

12:11 p.m.
Threat level brought down to yellow — plane turned west and was
traveling away from the White House.

12:14 p.m.
All clear at the White House.


12:37 p.m.
Cessna 152 lands in Frederick, Md.

Approximately 12:40 p.m.
All clear at the U.S. Capitol and Supreme Court.

[Ron Natalie]

pittss1c wrote:

> 1. how far away do controllers "notice" planes that are entering the
> ADIZ? (how many minutes away is a threatening 152)

Controllers aren't tasked with noticing or caring. There are other
people watching the radar (and different RADAR than the one ATC is using
in some cases).

But the answer is that they know right when you clip the edge. There
have been a few intercepts for people who almost busted the ADIZ (we
have a word for almost busted around here, it's called Remaining Clear).

>
> 3. Did the fighters or blackhawk intercept the plane before or after the
> threat was gone?

The DC111 at ADW is ready in 15 minutes, so if he's heading straight
downtown you do the math. The blackhawks are probably more pracical
(they can fly at 150 speeds).

>

[Judah]

According to the Anchor on the news tonight:

"...Radar picked up a threat from the skies 15 miles out, and closing
fast!"

Forget a KingAir - imagine if it was a Gulfstream like last time. At
between 6 and 7 miles per minute, they wouldn't even have had time to order
the evacuation...

The whole thing is a joke.

"You can protect some of the people all of the time, and all of the people
some of the time, but you can't protect all of the people all of the time."


pittss1c > wrote in
:

> I looked at the timeline of the 152 "Attack"
> http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=748233 (printed below)

<snip>

>
> 4. How does this math work with a kingair? When should we be
> evacuating people? (or what's the point)

<snip>

[[email protected]]

Just a minor technical correction, it was a Cessna 150, not 152.

[Sport Pilot]

They should order Reagan closed to airliners, and only allow aircraft
that only fly 120 MPH, which they have proved they can barely intercept
in time.

[gatt]

> wrote in message

> Just a minor technical correction, it was a Cessna 150, not 152.

Was it aerobatic?

;>
-c

[pittss1c]

gatt wrote:
> > wrote in message
>
>
>>Just a minor technical correction, it was a Cessna 150, not 152.
>
>
> Was it aerobatic?
>
> ;>
> -c
>
>
If I had flares unexpectedly coming across my nose from nowhere, It
would become aerobatic real quick.

[Ray]

> 4. How does this math work with a kingair? When should we be evacuating
> people? (or what's the point)

CNN.com has a transcript of an interview with the lead F16 pilot.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/05/12/cnna.lehmann/index.html

I think this clarifies some of the questions about the potential
effectiveness of the intercept procedures when dealing with something faster
than a 152. The pilot states that a) before they intercepted the 152 there
was already a US Customs aircraft off it's wing (I'm assuming that's the
citation referred to in other reports) and b) that he established radar
contact with the 152 immediately after takeoff. So while the F16's did not
establish visual contact with the 152 until 15 miles from the White House,
it looks like the Customs aircraft had already been there for some time and
had already determined that the 152 was not a likely threat. I think if the
plane was determined to be a threat the F16's could have shot it down with a
radar guided missile long before 15 miles from the White House.

The main problem, I think, is that there appears to be a disconnect between
the intercepting aircraft and controllers and the people on the ground who
ordered the panicked evacuation.

- Ray

[Mike W.]

"Ray" > wrote in message
...

> The main problem, I think, is that there appears to be a disconnect
between
> the intercepting aircraft and controllers and the people on the ground who
> ordered the panicked evacuation.
>
> - Ray

Yes, there are so many agencies involved that communications break down
rather quickly.

[Blueskies]

"Mike W." > wrote in message ...
>
> "Ray" > wrote in message
> ...
>
>> The main problem, I think, is that there appears to be a disconnect
> between
>> the intercepting aircraft and controllers and the people on the ground who
>> ordered the panicked evacuation.
>>
>> - Ray
>
> Yes, there are so many agencies involved that communications break down
> rather quickly.
>
>

And that is why the Dept. of 'Homeland' Security praised all involved with the great job well done?

[Mike W.]

"Blueskies" > wrote in message
...
>
> And that is why the Dept. of 'Homeland' Security praised all involved with
the great job well done?
>
What else are they going to say to the media, 'this is a clusterf*&k, we
should all be fired'?

[StellaStarr]

gatt wrote:
> > wrote in message
>
>
>>Just a minor technical correction, it was a Cessna 150, not 152.
>
>
> Was it aerobatic?
>
> ;>
> -c
>
>
With two grown men inside it?
It's a wonder it got off the ground! LOL!

[Sport Pilot]

Unfortunately it took several minutes to take off in the F16, at 400
MPH it only takes two minutes to fly 15 miles. So I doubt the plane
would still be in the air when the F-16 took off. Also the Customs
plane may have been a matter of luck.