The Euro's Heading Down

[Mike the Strike]

Since I reported the US dollar's drop against the Euro a few months
ago, I am delighted to report a reversal. The US dollar is currently
at 1.23 to the Euro and improving daily. A currency specialist tells
me he expects a rate of 1.15 by year's end.

Where it goes from there is anyone's guess, but the US economy has been
doing a bit better than expected and the Euro zone is not doing too
well. The French refusal to accept the new European constitution is
also likely to destabilize financial markets there. I am betting we
will see a continued improvement from the US perspective.

So, I suggest US pilots resist buying overpriced used gliders and think
again about ordering from the factory for delivery in the next year or
two when rates look like they will be much improved.

Mike the Strike

[Eric Greenwell]

Mike the Strike wrote:
> Since I reported the US dollar's drop against the Euro a few months
> ago, I am delighted to report a reversal. The US dollar is currently
> at 1.23 to the Euro and improving daily. A currency specialist tells
> me he expects a rate of 1.15 by year's end.
>
> Where it goes from there is anyone's guess, but the US economy has been
> doing a bit better than expected and the Euro zone is not doing too
> well. The French refusal to accept the new European constitution is
> also likely to destabilize financial markets there. I am betting we
> will see a continued improvement from the US perspective.
>
> So, I suggest US pilots resist buying overpriced used gliders and think
> again about ordering from the factory for delivery in the next year or
> two when rates look like they will be much improved.

I'm reminded of what a US sailplane dealer told me once: "If I knew
anything about the currency market, I'd be buying gliders instead of
selling them". If you think you can guess the future of the currency
markets, quit your day job and become a currency trader. Soon, you will
have so much money, you won't care what you pay for a glider!

I think Tom Seim's advice is better: save your money, invest it
conservatively, and when you have enough to buy the glider you want, buy
it. Timing currency markets is very difficult; meanwhile, the glider
price in Euros marches upwards (no uncertainty there!), and may cancel
any gains from waiting.

--
Change "netto" to "net" to email me directly

Eric Greenwell
Washington State
USA

[Ralph Jones]

On 31 May 2005 11:58:47 -0700, "Mike the Strike" >
wrote:

>Since I reported the US dollar's drop against the Euro a few months
>ago, I am delighted to report a reversal. The US dollar is currently
>at 1.23 to the Euro and improving daily. A currency specialist tells
>me he expects a rate of 1.15 by year's end.
>
>Where it goes from there is anyone's guess, but the US economy has been
>doing a bit better than expected and the Euro zone is not doing too
>well. The French refusal to accept the new European constitution is
>also likely to destabilize financial markets there. I am betting we
>will see a continued improvement from the US perspective.
>
>So, I suggest US pilots resist buying overpriced used gliders and think
>again about ordering from the factory for delivery in the next year or
>two when rates look like they will be much improved.
>
Indications are that the French vote against the EU constitution has
added some impetus to the drop.

rj

[[email protected]]

I can tell you what exactly caused the Euro to tank. I made my final
payment on a new ship a month ago! I apologize for not letting
everyone know that relief was near.
Clay Thomas

[COLIN LAMB]

Is it that simple? If the value of the Euro goes down, then fuel prices goe
up in Europe and inflation might occur, causing the price of the goods to
increase - offsetting the gain due to excahnge rate.

I had a friend who was a U boat commander in WW II. At wars end, he was in
Japan and came to the US after the war as a student and remained here. Long
after he retired, we were having lunch and he remarked how good he had it.
He got both social security and special compensation form the German
government. Whenever the mark or the dollar was devalued, he got more
money. He had the perfect hedge against inflation.

If you want a nice sailplane, the answer is simple. Do not have kids. You
can buy a very nice sailplane for the cost of one college education or maybe
two or three.

Colin

[[email protected]]

The US government failed to support the US$ for several years -
the idea was to sell more "cheap" exports outside the US - but
with the rest of the world economies in the toilet, it did not work -
plus people like Bill Gates and George Soros bet against the US$
by shorting the dollar - when this does not work, they must cover
their short positions - the NO vote in France and the anticipated
NO vote in Holland appear to be the triggers that move the US$
up and cause the short positions to cover - further driving up the
value of the US$. Personally, I believe the US$ will reach parity
with the Euro by the end of 2005. Order your gliders now, or
prepare to buy back the used gliders that went overseas while
the US$ was hammered down. Most do not realize that a couple
years ago it took 1.18 Euros to buy a US$ - a few months ago
I beleive it was 1.38 US$ to buy a Euro - that is a change of
~50% - in other words a glider price went up (for US buyers)
double (2X) - a 100K glider became a 100K glider in US$.
A few years ago Soros made $1 BILLION in a 24 hour period
by shorting the British Pound. It appears he lost his butt on
his US$ play - Gates as well. Good news for US glider pilots.

[Charles Yeates]

Take it while you can -- the US $ could tank again if the horrendous
deficit spending doesn't stop.

wrote:
> The US government failed to support the US$ for several years -
> the idea was to sell more "cheap" exports outside the US - but
> with the rest of the world economies in the toilet, it did not work -
> plus people like Bill Gates and George Soros bet against the US$
> by shorting the dollar - when this does not work, they must cover
> their short positions - the NO vote in France and the anticipated
> NO vote in Holland appear to be the triggers that move the US$
> up and cause the short positions to cover - further driving up the
> value of the US$. Personally, I believe the US$ will reach parity
> with the Euro by the end of 2005. Order your gliders now, or
> prepare to buy back the used gliders that went overseas while
> the US$ was hammered down. Most do not realize that a couple
> years ago it took 1.18 Euros to buy a US$ - a few months ago
> I beleive it was 1.38 US$ to buy a Euro - that is a change of
> ~50% - in other words a glider price went up (for US buyers)
> double (2X) - a 100K glider became a 100K glider in US$.
> A few years ago Soros made $1 BILLION in a 24 hour period
> by shorting the British Pound. It appears he lost his butt on
> his US$ play - Gates as well. Good news for US glider pilots.
>

[[email protected]]

correction - "a 100K glider became a 200K glider..."

[Mike the Strike]

And it continues:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4602229.stm

[For Example John Smith]

Their butts are bigger than most.
Watch the deficit and asian bond purchase activity.
Go fly.
> wrote in message
oups.com...
> The US government failed to support the US$ for several years -
> the idea was to sell more "cheap" exports outside the US - but
> with the rest of the world economies in the toilet, it did not work -
> plus people like Bill Gates and George Soros bet against the US$
> by shorting the dollar - when this does not work, they must cover
> their short positions - the NO vote in France and the anticipated
> NO vote in Holland appear to be the triggers that move the US$
> up and cause the short positions to cover - further driving up the
> value of the US$. Personally, I believe the US$ will reach parity
> with the Euro by the end of 2005. Order your gliders now, or
> prepare to buy back the used gliders that went overseas while
> the US$ was hammered down. Most do not realize that a couple
> years ago it took 1.18 Euros to buy a US$ - a few months ago
> I beleive it was 1.38 US$ to buy a Euro - that is a change of
> ~50% - in other words a glider price went up (for US buyers)
> double (2X) - a 100K glider became a 100K glider in US$.
> A few years ago Soros made $1 BILLION in a 24 hour period
> by shorting the British Pound. It appears he lost his butt on
> his US$ play - Gates as well. Good news for US glider pilots.
>

[[email protected]]

wrote:
> correction - "a 100K glider became a 200K glider..."

further correction: a $84000 glider became a $138,000 glider a change
of 64%, But the point is still taken.