Hurricane Dennis cont'd

[Dan Luke]

Went to Mobile Downtown Airport this morning to fly my airplane out of
harm's way, and ended up leaving it there.

I saw the line guys putting the bizjets in their hangars and, with
minimal begging and pleading, got them to stuff '87D in there with the
Citations and Lears. The building is supposed to be hurricane-proof up
to cat. 3+, and weathered Ivan last year with no damage. If the
hurricane blows *that* hangar down, well, at least my stuff will be
mixed up with some very expensive debris.

The governor has just issued a mandatory evacuation order for everyone
in my county south of I-10, which includes me by about a mile. My house
is about 150' AMSL, so, like most of my neighbors, I'm ignoring the
order. "Mandatory" does not mean they will come force you from your
house if you don't want to go, but it apparently gives gov't agencies
special emergency powers such as enforcing curfews, etc.

The storm lost a lot of punch crossing Cuba, and the latest wind models
predict it will be a strong 2 or weak 3 when it hits--a bit weaker than
Ivan. Four out of five track models have converged on Mobile Bay.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504_model.html

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[[email protected]]

Good luck with the hurricane Dan. I was pretty much at ground zero for
Frances (cat 2) and Jeanne (cat 3). I chose not to evacuate either, as
I was interested in seeing the hurricanes. I was in a solid house and
safe from flooding, so it wasn't too idiotic. Anyway, it was very
interesting to see the power and magnitude of the storms. Ended up
documenting some of them here:

Frances
http://makeashorterlink.com/?Y5AD236A9

Jeanne
http://makeashorterlink.com/?R2E32676B

Let us know how it goes and stay safe!

Sam

Dan Luke wrote:
> Went to Mobile Downtown Airport this morning to fly my airplane out of
> harm's way, and ended up leaving it there.
>
> I saw the line guys putting the bizjets in their hangars and, with
> minimal begging and pleading, got them to stuff '87D in there with the
> Citations and Lears. The building is supposed to be hurricane-proof up
> to cat. 3+, and weathered Ivan last year with no damage. If the
> hurricane blows *that* hangar down, well, at least my stuff will be
> mixed up with some very expensive debris.
>
> The governor has just issued a mandatory evacuation order for everyone
> in my county south of I-10, which includes me by about a mile. My house
> is about 150' AMSL, so, like most of my neighbors, I'm ignoring the
> order. "Mandatory" does not mean they will come force you from your
> house if you don't want to go, but it apparently gives gov't agencies
> special emergency powers such as enforcing curfews, etc.
>
> The storm lost a lot of punch crossing Cuba, and the latest wind models
> predict it will be a strong 2 or weak 3 when it hits--a bit weaker than
> Ivan. Four out of five track models have converged on Mobile Bay.
>
> http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504_model.html
>
> --
> Dan
> C172RG at BFM

[Juan Jimenez]

I would not count on Dennis to weaken. It's already picked up energy and is
running 140 mph wind gusts. It's expected to make landfall as either a
strong cat 3 or perhaps cat 4.

"Dan Luke" > wrote in message
...
> Went to Mobile Downtown Airport this morning to fly my airplane out of
> harm's way, and ended up leaving it there.
>
> I saw the line guys putting the bizjets in their hangars and, with minimal
> begging and pleading, got them to stuff '87D in there with the Citations
> and Lears. The building is supposed to be hurricane-proof up to cat. 3+,
> and weathered Ivan last year with no damage. If the hurricane blows
> *that* hangar down, well, at least my stuff will be mixed up with some
> very expensive debris.
>
> The governor has just issued a mandatory evacuation order for everyone in
> my county south of I-10, which includes me by about a mile. My house is
> about 150' AMSL, so, like most of my neighbors, I'm ignoring the order.
> "Mandatory" does not mean they will come force you from your house if you
> don't want to go, but it apparently gives gov't agencies special emergency
> powers such as enforcing curfews, etc.
>
> The storm lost a lot of punch crossing Cuba, and the latest wind models
> predict it will be a strong 2 or weak 3 when it hits--a bit weaker than
> Ivan. Four out of five track models have converged on Mobile Bay.
>
> http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504_model.html
>
> --
> Dan
> C172RG at BFM
>

[[email protected]]

Yeah, I'd be outta there if it was above a 3. Not worth it IMO.

[Dan Luke]

"Juan Jimenez" wrote:
>I would not count on Dennis to weaken. It's already picked up energy
>and is running 140 mph wind gusts. It's expected to make landfall as
>either a strong cat 3 or perhaps cat 4.

Yes, they've waffled on the earlier predictions. Oh, well, it won't be
the first 4 I've been through.

[Dan Luke]

> wrote:

> Yeah, I'd be outta there if it was above a 3. Not worth it IMO.


I'm staying. This will be my fourth hurricane to ride out (or maybe
fifth or seventh, I can't remember); this is just one more in the book.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[[email protected]]

Good luck and let us know how you fared. Looks like it's going to be a
nasty one.

[Dan Luke]

> wrote:

> Good luck and let us know how you fared.

Thanks. Wilco.

> Looks like it's going to be a nasty one.
>

The 11pm CDT forecast track has it going directly over my house.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204558.shtml?5day

[Lynne]

Hope you have better decision making skills in the air than you do on
the ground. ;)

[Montblack]

("Dan Luke" wrote)
> Yes, they've waffled on the earlier predictions. Oh, well, it won't be
> the first 4 I've been through.


-27F (below zero) in January is looking pretty good right about now, eh?

Good luck riding out the storm. Keep us posted.


Montblack
I've got a townhouse (2 miles from the airport) I'll sell you if you choose
Minneapolis - I'll even throw in a couple of snow shovels ...and jumper
cables ...and sidewalk de-icer ...and car survival blankets ...and ice
scrapers ...and outdoor thermometers that read down to -40F/-40C ...and
thick wool socks.

[Dan Luke]

"Lynne" wrote:
> Hope you have better decision making skills in the air than you do on
> the ground. ;)

I will take the charitable view and allow that your remark may come from
genuine concern. I will restrain myself from posting a couple of replies
that spring immediately to mind.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[Juan Jimenez]

I don't think they were expecting the jetstream to bend way down to the
gulf, around the storm and up the panhandle. It's almost as if it's reaching
around to give it more speed...

"Dan Luke" > wrote in message
...
>
> "Juan Jimenez" wrote:
>>I would not count on Dennis to weaken. It's already picked up energy and
>>is running 140 mph wind gusts. It's expected to make landfall as either a
>>strong cat 3 or perhaps cat 4.
>
> Yes, they've waffled on the earlier predictions. Oh, well, it won't be
> the first 4 I've been through.
>

[Dan Luke]

"Montblack" wrote:

>> Yes, they've waffled on the earlier predictions. Oh, well, it won't
>> be the first 4 I've been through.
>
>
> -27F (below zero) in January is looking pretty good right about now,
> eh?

Yeah. I know that this is the price one occasionally must pay to live
on the Gulf Coast, but two years in a row is excessive taxation, IMO.
Statistically, this should happen only every 23 years at any one spot.

> Good luck riding out the storm. Keep us posted.

Thanks.

Right now (9am CDT Sunday), Dennis is shaping up to be the strongest
storm I've ever been through in 58 years of living on the coast--and
that includes Carla in 1961, one of the 10 strongest Atlantic storms
ever.

Right now the weather boffins are saying the eye will pass a bit east of
me, which is a bit of good news if it's true. The poor folks in
Pensacola are going to get hammered again. Many still have blue plastic
tarps on their roofs from Ivan.
--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[john smith]

Dan Luke wrote:
> Yeah. I know that this is the price one occasionally must pay to live
> on the Gulf Coast, but two years in a row is excessive taxation, IMO.
> Statistically, this should happen only every 23 years at any one spot.

Then again, this could be the start of a new cycle!
:-))

[Dan Luke]

12:05 CDT report:

Heavy rain at my house, wind est. 25G35.

Power is still on, hasn't even blinked yet. It won't last much longer,
though.

The eye appears headed for a direct hit on Pensacola.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[Darrel Toepfer]

Dan Luke wrote:

> 12:05 CDT report:
>
> Heavy rain at my house, wind est. 25G35.
>
> Power is still on, hasn't even blinked yet. It won't last much longer,
> though.
>
> The eye appears headed for a direct hit on Pensacola.

12G21 here 225.3 nautical miles west...
http://aws.com/single_site.asp?id=EUNCE

Sites in Mobile and Pensacola aren't working...

[Dan Luke]

14:05 CDT report:

Heavy rain continues at my house, wind est. 25G45.

Power is still on; kind of surprising, since it usually goes out if a
cow farts anywhere in lower Alabama.

The eye is going ashore in Pensacola Bay as a medium cat 3. That is far
better than the cat. 4 it was earlier.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[Guy Byars]

I was flying the Skylane in Southwest Ohio on Sunday morning. I noticed a
convoy of 6 electrical repair trucks and crews heading South on I-71. Looks
like reinforcements are on the way to help with the inevitable power
problems. When the ice storms hit up here next winter, perhaps you can
return the favor.

Good Luck down there!

Guy Byars


"Dan Luke" > wrote in message
...
> 14:05 CDT report:
>
> Heavy rain continues at my house, wind est. 25G45.
>
> Power is still on; kind of surprising, since it usually goes out if a
> cow farts anywhere in lower Alabama.
>
> The eye is going ashore in Pensacola Bay as a medium cat 3. That is far
> better than the cat. 4 it was earlier.
>
> --
> Dan
> C172RG at BFM
>
>

[Dan Luke]

"Guy Byars" wrote:
>I was flying the Skylane in Southwest Ohio on Sunday morning. I
>noticed a
> convoy of 6 electrical repair trucks and crews heading South on I-71.
> Looks
> like reinforcements are on the way to help with the inevitable power
> problems.

Yep.

> When the ice storms hit up here next winter, perhaps you can
> return the favor.

I'm sure the power companies have reciprocal agreements. There's no way
they can individually afford to keep enough staff and equipment on hand
to handle the occasional big emergency.

> Good Luck down there!

Thanks.
--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[Dan Luke]

16:00 CDT update:

Eight hours ago Dennis was looking like it might be the worst storm I'd
ever ridden out. Now the center is about 40 mi. due east of us and the
weather outside doesn't look much worse than a common thunderstorm,
except that it's lasting longer. That's the benefit of being well to
the "good" side of a hurricane.

Still not totally in the clear yet--there are more squalls headed this
way and tornadoes are always a possibility--but right now Dennis is
looking like a wimp in the greater Mobile Bay area.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[Judah]

"Dan Luke" > wrote in
:

>
> "Guy Byars" wrote:
>>I was flying the Skylane in Southwest Ohio on Sunday morning. I
>>noticed a
>> convoy of 6 electrical repair trucks and crews heading South on I-71.
>> Looks
>> like reinforcements are on the way to help with the inevitable power
>> problems.
>
> Yep.
>
>> When the ice storms hit up here next winter, perhaps you can
>> return the favor.
>
> I'm sure the power companies have reciprocal agreements. There's no way
> they can individually afford to keep enough staff and equipment on hand
> to handle the occasional big emergency.
>

In all likelihood, they are all selling each other's power anyway, and have
a vested interest in keeping it flowing...

Although if the power really goes out every time a cow farts in Alabama, I
can't imagine they are selling all that much of it!

>> Good Luck down there!
>
> Thanks.

I'll echo that sentiment. Good luck and stay safe!

[NW_PILOT]

No way I would be there watching!!!


> wrote in message
oups.com...
> Yeah, I'd be outta there if it was above a 3. Not worth it IMO.
>

[David Lesher]

"Dan Luke" > writes:


>Yeah. I know that this is the price one occasionally must pay to live
>on the Gulf Coast, but two years in a row is excessive taxation, IMO.
>Statistically, this should happen only every 23 years at any one spot.

My friend was moving to Tampa; and went though four hurricanes last
year...before they even got everything there...

And today....

--
A host is a host from coast to
& no one will talk to a host that's close........[v].(301) 56-LINUX
Unless the host (that isn't close).........................pob 1433
is busy, hung or dead....................................20915-1433

[Denny]

Dan, if you have power and internet, how did you make out?

denny

[Dan Luke]

"Denny"
> Dan, if you have power and internet, how did you make out?

Hey, Denny.

Just fine, thanks. Dennis's jog to the east kept us far enough on the
"good" side of the storm that we never had any really heavy winds--maybe
45kts max in gusts. Amazingly, my power never even blinked, perhaps
because Ivan last year pruned a lot of the weaker limbs and trees.

I'm headed to the airport in a little while to see if they've pulled my
airplane out and check it for any new hangar rash.

This hurricane had me scared yesterday morning when it was a cat. 4 and
headed for Mobile Bay. It just shows that you can never tell about the
damned things until they actually hit.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[Juan Jimenez]

Glad to hear you were spared the brunt of the storm!

"Dan Luke" > wrote in message
...
> 16:00 CDT update:
>
> Eight hours ago Dennis was looking like it might be the worst storm I'd
> ever ridden out. Now the center is about 40 mi. due east of us and the
> weather outside doesn't look much worse than a common thunderstorm, except
> that it's lasting longer. That's the benefit of being well to the "good"
> side of a hurricane.
>
> Still not totally in the clear yet--there are more squalls headed this way
> and tornadoes are always a possibility--but right now Dennis is looking
> like a wimp in the greater Mobile Bay area.
>
> --
> Dan
> C172RG at BFM
>

[[email protected]]

Glad to see you did ok! Too bad we have 4 more months of this crap.

[Dan Luke]

> wrote:

> Glad to see you did ok!

Thanks.

> Too bad we have 4 more months of this crap.

Yep. Here comes another one:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/204407.shtml?5day

[Darrel Toepfer]

wrote:

> Glad to see you did ok! Too bad we have 4 more months of this crap.

Here in Louisiana hurricane season lasts until December...

[Juan Jimenez]

Don't remind me. Here comes Emily.

> wrote in message
oups.com...
> Glad to see you did ok! Too bad we have 4 more months of this crap.
>

[Peter R.]

Juan Jimenez > wrote:

> Don't remind me. Here comes Emily.

And two more depressions right behind her.

--
Peter
























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[Darrel Toepfer]

Dan Luke wrote:

>>Too bad we have 4 more months of this crap.
>
> Yep. Here comes another one:
>
> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/204407.shtml?5day

We (wife and I) were supposed to land in Cozumel yesterday at 11:30am,
decided to change the tickets to September (9/11 geaux figure). I called
the couple that owned the house where we were staying at 10pm last
night. Power was off but it wasn't raining or blowing very hard yet.
Emily was 50 miles ESE with 135 mph winds and moving at 18 mph at the
time I gave them an update. Around 3am they were shoving buckets of
water out of the house (tile floors and solid concrete walls). No damage
to the house, but the yards pretty torn up, they'd already cut down all
the big trees when they boarded the place up. I got the update report
from their daughter in New Orleans after they called her this morning, I
haven't been able to get a line down there since last night, always a
recording until this afternoon when I can't even get that. Looks like
the internet is backup again down there though...

[Dan Luke]

"Darrel Toepfer" wrote:

> Emily was 50 miles ESE with 135 mph winds and moving at 18 mph at the
> time I gave them an update. Around 3am they were shoving buckets of
> water out of the house (tile floors and solid concrete walls). No
> damage to the house, but the yards pretty torn up,

Hurricanes are weird things. The damage in the path of even a bad one
is often spotty - areas of massive destruction interspersed with areas
where only a couple of trees are down.

I've ridden out a half dozen or so of the damned things, and every one
of them has done something freakish. It would be fine with me if I
never saw another one.

Hope everything's ok with your people down there.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[Darrel Toepfer]

Dan Luke wrote:

> Hurricanes are weird things. The damage in the path of even a bad one
> is often spotty - areas of massive destruction interspersed with areas
> where only a couple of trees are down.

Here at 4R7 it was the tornadoes from Lily that did the most damage, 8+
of them in just a couple hours time...

> I've ridden out a half dozen or so of the damned things, and every one
> of them has done something freakish. It would be fine with me if I
> never saw another one.

Same here, have driven through several of them as well, thats a bit
freakier than sitting them out in the house...

> Hope everything's ok with your people down there.

Looks to be, haven't heard word about how downtown and the shops around
the ship docks made it though... Cancun apparently never lost power,
though that was a bit northeast of the eye...