Another airline accident today

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I've heard bad things happen in threes but this rash of airline
accidents is kinda scary. First the ATR that crashed off the Palerma
cost ten days ago then the Greek 737 on Sunday and today a MD-82 goes
down in Venezuela with all aboard presumed lost.

The other day I'd read about a close call at Boston Logan and another
at JFK within the last month or so and it got me thinking how close we
might be to a major airline accident in the US(yikes!). I don't know if
the foreign airline crashes were due to a maintenance problem, so far
the last two sound like there were mechanical issues.

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Oh yeah, how could I forget the Air France A340 in Toronto... lucky
everyone walked away from that one with only minor(?) injuries

[Dylan Smith]

On 2005-08-16, > wrote:
> The other day I'd read about a close call at Boston Logan and another
> at JFK within the last month or so and it got me thinking how close we
> might be to a major airline accident in the US(yikes!).

The other crashes do not affect the probability of a crash in the US. It
is inevitable that eventually there will be a major airline accident in
the US.

Look at the NTSB reports - minor incidents and close calls are quite a
common occurance in the US.

--
Dylan Smith, Castletown, Isle of Man
Flying: http://www.dylansmith.net
Frontier Elite Universe: http://www.alioth.net
"Maintain thine airspeed, lest the ground come up and smite thee"

[David Dyer-Bennet]

Dylan Smith > writes:

> On 2005-08-16, > wrote:
> > The other day I'd read about a close call at Boston Logan and another
> > at JFK within the last month or so and it got me thinking how close we
> > might be to a major airline accident in the US(yikes!).
>
> The other crashes do not affect the probability of a crash in the US. It
> is inevitable that eventually there will be a major airline accident in
> the US.
>
> Look at the NTSB reports - minor incidents and close calls are quite a
> common occurance in the US.

And the length of time since the last one has no impact on the chances
of one any given day. We're talking about what statisticians call
"independent events".
--
David Dyer-Bennet, >, <http://www.dd-b.net/dd-b/>
RKBA: <http://noguns-nomoney.com/> <http://www.dd-b.net/carry/>
Pics: <http://dd-b.lighthunters.net/> <http://www.dd-b.net/dd-b/SnapshotAlbum/>
Dragaera/Steven Brust: <http://dragaera.info/> Much of which is still down

[Ron Garret]

In article >,
David Dyer-Bennet > wrote:

> Dylan Smith > writes:
>
> > On 2005-08-16, > wrote:
> > > The other day I'd read about a close call at Boston Logan and another
> > > at JFK within the last month or so and it got me thinking how close we
> > > might be to a major airline accident in the US(yikes!).
> >
> > The other crashes do not affect the probability of a crash in the US. It
> > is inevitable that eventually there will be a major airline accident in
> > the US.
> >
> > Look at the NTSB reports - minor incidents and close calls are quite a
> > common occurance in the US.
>
> And the length of time since the last one has no impact on the chances
> of one any given day. We're talking about what statisticians call
> "independent events".

That's not necessarily true. There could be some systematic underlying
cause resulting in an increased risk of crashes. It seems unlikely in
this case (or these cases), but you can't rule it out a priori.

rg

[David Dyer-Bennet]

Ron Garret > writes:

> In article >,
> David Dyer-Bennet > wrote:
>
> > Dylan Smith > writes:
> >
> > > On 2005-08-16, > wrote:
> > > > The other day I'd read about a close call at Boston Logan and another
> > > > at JFK within the last month or so and it got me thinking how close we
> > > > might be to a major airline accident in the US(yikes!).
> > >
> > > The other crashes do not affect the probability of a crash in the US. It
> > > is inevitable that eventually there will be a major airline accident in
> > > the US.
> > >
> > > Look at the NTSB reports - minor incidents and close calls are quite a
> > > common occurance in the US.
> >
> > And the length of time since the last one has no impact on the chances
> > of one any given day. We're talking about what statisticians call
> > "independent events".
>
> That's not necessarily true. There could be some systematic underlying
> cause resulting in an increased risk of crashes. It seems unlikely in
> this case (or these cases), but you can't rule it out a priori.

Yeah, I thought of trying to complicate the explanation to that
extent, but since it didn't apply to the most immediate bit of the
discussion (no apparent common mode) I left it out to keep things
simple.
--
David Dyer-Bennet, >, <http://www.dd-b.net/dd-b/>
RKBA: <http://noguns-nomoney.com/> <http://www.dd-b.net/carry/>
Pics: <http://dd-b.lighthunters.net/> <http://www.dd-b.net/dd-b/SnapshotAlbum/>
Dragaera/Steven Brust: <http://dragaera.info/> Much of which is still down