TAF KNBG

[Gerry Caron]

It's been hard to avoid the Hurricane Katrina coverage, but somehow the raw
numbers have a real impact over the media hype. The forecast shows eye
passage about 1630-1830Z tomorrow. Here's the TAF from New Orleans NAS:
KNBG 282121 06015G25KT 9000 BR SCT030 BKN050 OVC080 QHN2960INS VCTS
TEMPO 2202 VRB30G45KT 1600 SHRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB/
BECMG 0204 06040G55 SCT005 OVC010 QNH2900INS
TEMPO 0206 VRB50G70KT 1600 TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB
BECMG 0507 VRB115G130KT 0400 +TSRAGR BR SCT005 OVC010CB QNH2860INS
TEMPO 0509 +FC
BECMG 0910 QNH2750INS
TEMPO 0915 +FC
BECMG 1516 120145G175KT 0100 +SHRA BR SCT005 OVC010 QNH2663INS
FM1630 VRB06KT 9999 SCT300 QNH2668INS
FM1830 270140G160KT 0100 +TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB QNH2672INS T24/11Z
T34/20Z
Gerry

[news]

What is the TAF abbr for "Scary S*** Coming!"?

Is "1630 VRB06KT" when they think the "eye" is coming through before jumping
back to 140G160?
-----------------------------------
BECMG 1516 120145G175KT 0100 +SHRA BR SCT005 OVC010 QNH2663INS
FM1630 VRB06KT 9999 SCT300 QNH2668INS
FM1830 270140G160KT 0100 +TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB QNH2672INS T24/11Z
T34/20Z

"Gerry Caron" > wrote in message
...
> It's been hard to avoid the Hurricane Katrina coverage, but somehow the
> raw numbers have a real impact over the media hype. The forecast shows
> eye passage about 1630-1830Z tomorrow. Here's the TAF from New Orleans
> NAS:
> KNBG 282121 06015G25KT 9000 BR SCT030 BKN050 OVC080 QHN2960INS VCTS
> TEMPO 2202 VRB30G45KT 1600 SHRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB/
> BECMG 0204 06040G55 SCT005 OVC010 QNH2900INS
> TEMPO 0206 VRB50G70KT 1600 TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB
> BECMG 0507 VRB115G130KT 0400 +TSRAGR BR SCT005 OVC010CB QNH2860INS
> TEMPO 0509 +FC
> BECMG 0910 QNH2750INS
> TEMPO 0915 +FC
> BECMG 1516 120145G175KT 0100 +SHRA BR SCT005 OVC010 QNH2663INS
> FM1630 VRB06KT 9999 SCT300 QNH2668INS
> FM1830 270140G160KT 0100 +TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB QNH2672INS T24/11Z
> T34/20Z
> Gerry
>

[George Patterson]

news wrote:
> What is the TAF abbr for "Scary S*** Coming!"?

KYAG

George Patterson
Give a person a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a person to
use the Internet and he won't bother you for weeks.

[Jay Beckman]

"George Patterson" > wrote in message
news:1cwQe.3740$Ni1.1532@trndny03...
> news wrote:
>> What is the TAF abbr for "Scary S*** Coming!"?
>
> KYAG
>
> George Patterson

Beautiful George...simply beautiful...

Jay B

[Scott Cunningham]

Gerry Caron wrote:
> It's been hard to avoid the Hurricane Katrina coverage...

Certainly has been a lot of hype. What worries me is the language the
NWS forecasters are using. Here's the forecast discussion out of New
Orleans. I've never seen any of the forecasters who write these use the
terminology that's below: destiny/urgency/worst case hurrican scenario.
The kicker was the last paragraph, though.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
452 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

..UPDATE...TO ADD TORNADO WATCH #752.

..DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SEEMS POISED FOR A DATE WITH DESTINY AS
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO KEEP A BEAD ON BARATARIA
BAY AND THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO
BE SUPERIOR IN ITS HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM INASMUCH AS TO BASE THE
CONVENTIONAL FORECAST PARAMETERS WITH GOOD INTEGRITY AND IN
AGREEMENT WITH NHC ADVISORIES.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE WORST CAN BE ANTICIPATED AND URGENCY IS
BEING STRESSED IN ALL PRODUCTS AS A WORST CASE HURRICANE SCENARIO
FOR THIS VERY FRAGILE AND VULNERABLE STRETCH OF U.S. COASTLINE.
THE EYE IS EMERGING ON THE KLIX LONG RANGE LOOP AND BANDS ARE
EXTENDING TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT THIS TIME. THINGS WILL BE
DETIORATING STEADILY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WILL MAINTAIN ALL WARNINGS AS ALREADY POSTED AS WELL AS THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ADVISED THAT THE FIRST
TORNADO WATCH OF THE EVENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...PROBABLY RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

MOST ATTENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS DAY 1-2 WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CHANGES MADE BEYOND DAY 3. GOOD LUCK AND GODSPEED TO ALL IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM.

[Dylan Smith]

On 2005-08-29, Scott Cunningham > wrote:
> Gerry Caron wrote:
> > It's been hard to avoid the Hurricane Katrina coverage...
>
> Certainly has been a lot of hype. What worries me is the language the
> NWS forecasters are using. Here's the forecast discussion out of New

A friend sent me this. This article was written in 2002. For the sake of
those in the New Orleans area, we can only hope the thing loses
intensity:

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane_print.html
--
Dylan Smith, Castletown, Isle of Man
Flying: http://www.dylansmith.net
Frontier Elite Universe: http://www.alioth.net
"Maintain thine airspeed, lest the ground come up and smite thee"

[john smith]

>>>What is the TAF abbr for "Scary S*** Coming!"?

>>KYAG

Is that near Bend? Dover?

[Paul Tomblin]

In a previous article, "Gerry Caron" > said:
>It's been hard to avoid the Hurricane Katrina coverage, but somehow the raw
>numbers have a real impact over the media hype. The forecast shows eye
>passage about 1630-1830Z tomorrow. Here's the TAF from New Orleans NAS:
>KNBG 282121 06015G25KT 9000 BR SCT030 BKN050 OVC080 QHN2960INS VCTS
> TEMPO 2202 VRB30G45KT 1600 SHRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB/
> BECMG 0204 06040G55 SCT005 OVC010 QNH2900INS
> TEMPO 0206 VRB50G70KT 1600 TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB
> BECMG 0507 VRB115G130KT 0400 +TSRAGR BR SCT005 OVC010CB QNH2860INS
> TEMPO 0509 +FC
> BECMG 0910 QNH2750INS
> TEMPO 0915 +FC
> BECMG 1516 120145G175KT 0100 +SHRA BR SCT005 OVC010 QNH2663INS
> FM1630 VRB06KT 9999 SCT300 QNH2668INS
> FM1830 270140G160KT 0100 +TSRA BR SCT005 OVC010CB QNH2672INS T24/11Z
>T34/20Z

Read the National Weather Service "Urgent Weather Message" at
http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:laz069#t3
Usually they don't go in for hyperbole, and this is scary ****:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
619 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005


EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING ACROSS LOWER
PLAQUEMINES PARISH

DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW POSSIBLY TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. MANY WINDOWS WILL
BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED.

LAZ037>040-049-050-057>070-MSZ070-071-077-080>082-291700-
ASCENSION-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BILOXI...GULFPORT...BOGALUSA...
GRAND ISLE...HAMMOND...HOUMA...MCCOMB...METAIRIE...NEW ORLEANS...
PASCAGOULA...PICAYUNE...SLIDELL
619 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005


--
Paul Tomblin > http://xcski.com/blogs/pt/
C has features?? I thought the whole point of that language was to
offer nothing but bare metal.
-- David P. Murphy

[Dan Luke]

> ALL WOOD
> FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.

Bull****.

[sfb]

Uninhabitable and therefore have to be destroyed may be closer to the
truth, but having seen what Ivan did on the Florida Panhandle, don't be
surprised when "all" and "destroyed" happens.

"Dan Luke" > wrote in message
...
>
>> ALL WOOD
>> FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.
>
> Bull****.
>

[George Patterson]

Dylan Smith wrote:
>
> For the sake of
> those in the New Orleans area, we can only hope the thing loses
> intensity:

According to AP, it was a category 4 storm with 145 mph winds when it hit New
Orleans.

George Patterson
Give a person a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a person to
use the Internet and he won't bother you for weeks.

[No Such User]

In article >, news wrote:
>What is the TAF abbr for "Scary S*** Coming!"?
>
Well, "QNH2663INS" would fit that description nicely. "+FC" should make
your butt suck a lemon as well....

[Andrew Gideon]

No Such User wrote:

> "+FC" should make
> your butt suck a lemon as well....

Intense flying cows?

- Andrew

[Dylan Smith]

On 2005-08-29, Dan Luke > wrote:
>
>> ALL WOOD
>> FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.
>
> Bull****.

Not at all. If the hurricane had remained a category 5 storm,
overpressures of 4-5 psi could be expected. This is sufficient to destroy
a timber frame building. It's about equivalent to the blast that would
be felt about 2.5 miles from a 100kt nuclear explosion.

Fortunately, it seems to have lost strength when it made landfall.

--
Dylan Smith, Castletown, Isle of Man
Flying: http://www.dylansmith.net
Frontier Elite Universe: http://www.alioth.net
"Maintain thine airspeed, lest the ground come up and smite thee"

[Marco Leon]

Well, at least "some" were:
http://news.yahoo.com/photo/050830/photos_ts/mdf47701

Marco



"Dylan Smith" > wrote in message
...
> On 2005-08-29, Dan Luke > wrote:
> >
> >> ALL WOOD
> >> FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.
> >
> > Bull****.
>
> Not at all. If the hurricane had remained a category 5 storm,
> overpressures of 4-5 psi could be expected. This is sufficient to destroy
> a timber frame building. It's about equivalent to the blast that would
> be felt about 2.5 miles from a 100kt nuclear explosion.
>
> Fortunately, it seems to have lost strength when it made landfall.
>
> --
> Dylan Smith, Castletown, Isle of Man
> Flying: http://www.dylansmith.net
> Frontier Elite Universe: http://www.alioth.net
> "Maintain thine airspeed, lest the ground come up and smite thee"



Posted Via Usenet.com Premium Usenet Newsgroup Services
----------------------------------------------------------
** SPEED ** RETENTION ** COMPLETION ** ANONYMITY **
----------------------------------------------------------
http://www.usenet.com

[Paul Tomblin]

In a previous article, "Marco Leon" <mmleon(at)yahoo.com> said:
>Well, at least "some" were:
>http://news.yahoo.com/photo/050830/photos_ts/mdf47701

And on-topic:
http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/interactive/us/0508/gallery.katrina.citizens/1.3.jim.jiao.jpg


--
Paul Tomblin > http://xcski.com/blogs/pt/
"GNU is not Linux - Linux has a kernel that boots" - Chris Thompson

[Dan Luke]

"Dylan Smith" wrote:
>>> ALL WOOD
>>> FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.
>>
>> Bull****.
>
> Not at all. If the hurricane had remained a category 5 storm,
> overpressures of 4-5 psi could be expected. This is sufficient to
> destroy
> a timber frame building. It's about equivalent to the blast that would
> be felt about 2.5 miles from a 100kt nuclear explosion.

Well, it says, "ALL." Hurricane damage simply doesn't work that way.
It is freakishly spotty even in a very bad storm.

> Fortunately, it seems to have lost strength when it made landfall.

Yes. If it had come ashore with a central pressure of 902 mb, things
could have been far worse than even the catastrophic damage we are
seeing.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[sfb]

Andrew drove a major upgrading of Florida building codes to make
structures more hurricane resistant. After the 2004 season, you could
easily spot in aerial photographs pre and post Andrew neighborhoods and
developments. Considering that New Orleans and surrounding area is for
the most part not recent construction, all is certainly possible.

"Dan Luke" > wrote in message
...
>
> "Dylan Smith" wrote:
>>>> ALL WOOD
>>>> FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.
>>>
>>> Bull****.
>>
>> Not at all. If the hurricane had remained a category 5 storm,
>> overpressures of 4-5 psi could be expected. This is sufficient to
>> destroy
>> a timber frame building. It's about equivalent to the blast that
>> would
>> be felt about 2.5 miles from a 100kt nuclear explosion.
>
> Well, it says, "ALL." Hurricane damage simply doesn't work that way.
> It is freakishly spotty even in a very bad storm.
>
>> Fortunately, it seems to have lost strength when it made landfall.
>
> Yes. If it had come ashore with a central pressure of 902 mb, things
> could have been far worse than even the catastrophic damage we are
> seeing.
>
> --
> Dan
> C172RG at BFM
>

[Dylan Smith]

On 2005-08-30, Dan Luke > wrote:
>
> "Dylan Smith" wrote:
>>>> ALL WOOD
>>>> FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.
>>>
>>> Bull****.
>>
>> Not at all. If the hurricane had remained a category 5 storm,
>> overpressures of 4-5 psi could be expected. This is sufficient to
>> destroy
>> a timber frame building. It's about equivalent to the blast that would
>> be felt about 2.5 miles from a 100kt nuclear explosion.
>
> Well, it says, "ALL." Hurricane damage simply doesn't work that way.
> It is freakishly spotty even in a very bad storm.

In a city below sea level? Imagine if it had hit as a Category 5 storm
with a central pressure of 902mb - it's not just the wind, it's the deep
floodwaters being driven by these savage winds too. The floodwaters will
easily see off any building that the winds didn't. Even if a flooded
timber frame building manages to survive being lashed by Category 5
winds and 18 feet of flood water, when the water recedes (weeks later!)
it'll have to be pulled down anyway. A building that is so badly damaged
that it needs to be demolished is effectively destroyed.

If it takes as long as some of the doomsayers are saying to drain the
flooded parts of the city, I suspect most of the houses currently
flooded to roof level aren't going to be structurally sound.

--
Dylan Smith, Castletown, Isle of Man
Flying: http://www.dylansmith.net
Frontier Elite Universe: http://www.alioth.net
"Maintain thine airspeed, lest the ground come up and smite thee"

[Dan Luke]

"Dylan Smith" wrote:

> If it takes as long as some of the doomsayers are saying to drain the
> flooded parts of the city, I suspect most of the houses currently
> flooded to roof level aren't going to be structurally sound.

The Mayor was on CNN last night and seems to be in some sort of denial.
He said his original estimate of eight weeks to return to some semblance
of normalcy might have to be extended to twelve!

The governor looks like she has a better understanding of how colossal
the disaster is--she looks like she's in shock.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[Darrel Toepfer]

Dan Luke wrote:

> The Mayor was on CNN last night and seems to be in some sort of denial.
> He said his original estimate of eight weeks to return to some semblance
> of normalcy might have to be extended to twelve!

He used to run the Cox cable system there...

> The governor looks like she has a better understanding of how colossal
> the disaster is--she looks like she's in shock.

She was pretty emotional, near breakdown many times yesterday in the
interview with the senators, fema and corps personel...

Gotta plug the leaks, thats first priority, otherwise everybody out...

[George Patterson]

Dan Luke wrote:
>
> Well, it says, "ALL." Hurricane damage simply doesn't work that way.

Well, we had 90% destruction where the center hit, so I'd say that "all" would
be correct.

George Patterson
Give a person a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a person to
use the Internet and he won't bother you for weeks.

[Dan Luke]

"George Patterson" > wrote in message
news:_LkRe.5835$DV.5058@trndny07...
> Dan Luke wrote:
>>
>> Well, it says, "ALL." Hurricane damage simply doesn't work that way.
>
> Well, we had 90% destruction where the center hit, so I'd say that
> "all" would be correct.

No, we didn't. Leaving aside the obvious fact that 90% does not = 100%,
we had 90% destruction in *some* areas where the center hit, not all.
Even in Gulfport and Long Beach, MS, the hardest hit cities, many wood
frame buildings have survived.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[George Patterson]

Dan Luke wrote:
>
> No, we didn't.

Well, the politicos there say they did.

> Leaving aside the obvious fact that 90% does not = 100%,

And category 4 does not = category 5 either.

George Patterson
Give a person a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a person to
use the Internet and he won't bother you for weeks.

[sfb]

Still standing does not mean inhabitable or repairable. It will be weeks
before the full impact is known.

"Dan Luke" > wrote in message
...
>
> "George Patterson" > wrote in message
> news:_LkRe.5835$DV.5058@trndny07...
>> Dan Luke wrote:
>>>
>>> Well, it says, "ALL." Hurricane damage simply doesn't work that
>>> way.
>>
>> Well, we had 90% destruction where the center hit, so I'd say that
>> "all" would be correct.
>
> No, we didn't. Leaving aside the obvious fact that 90% does not =
> 100%, we had 90% destruction in *some* areas where the center hit, not
> all. Even in Gulfport and Long Beach, MS, the hardest hit cities,
> many wood frame buildings have survived.
>
> --
> Dan
> C172RG at BFM
>