Carbon fiber shortage?

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First the 4130N shortage and now carbon fiber?

>From what I have heard there is a real shortage of this world wide. Is
this true? If so can anyone shed some light on the how/why of this?
Is it related to the price of oil, or just more demand and lack of
manufacturing capacity? Is it just a shortage of the cloth, or the
basic raw material?
==========
Leon McAtee
Had planned to buy some more Graphlite this spring............

[Bob Kuykendall]

wrote:

> First the 4130N shortage and now carbon fiber?
> From what I have heard there is a real shortage of this world wide. Is
> this true? If so can anyone shed some light on the how/why of this?
> Is it related to the price of oil, or just more demand and lack of
> manufacturing capacity? Is it just a shortage of the cloth, or the
> basic raw material?
> ==========
> Leon McAtee
> Had planned to buy some more Graphlite this spring............

The way I understand it, you're right on all three points:

* Making the raw fibers takes a lot of energy, and right now energy
prices are high.

* There are several large aerospace programs getting started that
require a substantial portion of the available worldwide capacity; an
example would be the 787 program which is something like 60% composite.

Anyhow, the big players have placed or are placing their orders for
lots of high-value materials. The fiber manufactuers and weavers are
concentrating more on these very lucrative aerospace contracts than on
lower-value commercial orders. And who can blame them? The business of
business is definitely business.

However, I take sort of a long-term view of it; I believe that the
carbon supplier/consumer relationship will observe a Malthusian cycle
in which there is successively over- and undersupply. I think that it
will only be a year or two before we find that the materials
manufacturers have overshot the mark in keeping up with demand, and
prices and supply will return to something like normal. Also,
increasingly steady demand in the consumer and transport markets,
caused by greater demand for energy effeciency, will further bring
prices into line as materials firms add capacity to meet this
commercial demand.

Thanks, and best regards to all

Bob K.
http://www.hpaircraft.com/hp-24

[abripl]

Seems to be available at www.fiberglast.com

[[email protected]]

Bob Kuykendall wrote:
> wrote:
>
> > First the 4130N shortage and now carbon fiber?
> > From what I have heard there is a real shortage of this world wide. Is
> > this true? If so can anyone shed some light on the how/why of this?
> > Is it related to the price of oil, or just more demand and lack of
> > manufacturing capacity? Is it just a shortage of the cloth, or the
> > basic raw material?
> > ==========
> > Leon McAtee
> > Had planned to buy some more Graphlite this spring............
>
> The way I understand it, you're right on all three points:
>
> * Making the raw fibers takes a lot of energy, and right now energy
> prices are high.
>
> * There are several large aerospace programs getting started that
> require a substantial portion of the available worldwide capacity; an
> example would be the 787 program which is something like 60% composite.
>
> Anyhow, the big players have placed or are placing their orders for
> lots of high-value materials. The fiber manufactuers and weavers are
> concentrating more on these very lucrative aerospace contracts than on
> lower-value commercial orders. And who can blame them? The business of
> business is definitely business.

I was under the impression that a lot of carbon fiber sold to
individuals is actually over-runs of production orders or left overs
from large commercial projects. If this is true, the price may go up
but availability need not suffer for small scale amatuer fabricators.


>
> However, I take sort of a long-term view of it; I believe that the
> carbon supplier/consumer relationship will observe a Malthusian cycle
> in which there is successively over- and undersupply. I think that it
> will only be a year or two before we find that the materials
> manufacturers have overshot the mark in keeping up with demand, and
> prices and supply will return to something like normal. Also,
> increasingly steady demand in the consumer and transport markets,
> caused by greater demand for energy effeciency, will further bring
> prices into line as materials firms add capacity to meet this
> commercial demand.
>
> Thanks, and best regards to all
>
> Bob K.
> http://www.hpaircraft.com/hp-24