Article: Older pilots crashing in disproportionate numbers

[City Dweller]

http://www.pe.com/ap_news/California2/CA_Older_Pilots_229286CA.shtml

[Larry Dighera]

On Fri, 17 Mar 2006 23:30:20 GMT, "City Dweller" >
wrote in >::

>http://www.pe.com/ap_news/California2/CA_Older_Pilots_229286CA.shtml
>

Journalist Pearson's article seems to be questioning the wisdom of the
lack of medical certificate requirement in the new Sport Pilot
designation in light of Associated Press' research that they claim
shows a disproportionate number of accidents among older pilots:

Following a rash of plane crashes involving older pilots in
Southern California, The Associated Press analyzed five years of
federal pilot licensing documents and aviation crash data. The
analysis showed that pilots in older age groups were in a
significantly higher percentage of crashes than they represented
among all pilots.

Implicit in Mr. Pearson's article is the premise that the underling
cause of the alleged disproportionate number of accidents among older
pilots is medical related. Of course, there is no good evidence for
that assumption, and it could as easily be explained with over
familiarity with aviation, complacency, and a resultant lack of due
diligence toward flight planning.

Without more information about the specifics of the AP's analysis,
it's difficult to know the validity of their "research" given the
usual plethora of inaccuracies of most aviation news stories.

[Doug]

The article's premise is based on the fact that older pilots have more
accidents, considering how many older pilots are vs younger pilots.
But....could it be that older pilots fly more often due to having more
money and more time? It seems to me they do. I know many, many young
pilots who dont fly much at all. And most GA airplanes are owned by
older pilots. Owners fly more than renters. Older pilots fly more
hours.

It seems to me they should be comparing the accidents PER HOUR FLOWN,
not per number of pilots....

Thus the whole premise of the theory is wrong.

[[email protected]]

I would have a difficult time accepting ANYthing the Associated Press,
or most of our media outlets, put forth. They usually have an agenda,
and they always want to generate interest through controversy.
Trust no survey or research unless you see the original questions.
When our kids were little, I taught them to always ask about the money
when a survey was quoted. Who paid, and who has an interest? That
usually points to the results; the survey or research itself wasn't
necessary.

AFter reading the article, my first question was why didn't AP do a
study on automobile accidents? There's more of them, more fatalities,
and it is difficult to get older folks out from behind the wheel.

I'm thinking aviation is easier to pick on, since there are fewer
pilots than drivers, and old folks don't equate flying with personal
freedom, as they do with driving.

[Icebound]

"Doug" > wrote in message
oups.com...
> The article's premise is based on the fact that older pilots have more
> accidents, considering how many older pilots are vs younger pilots.

Actually: who cares?

The numbers are so insignificant when compared to hundred of other ways to
die... or be killed by someone else.

About the same number as drowning and boating accidents.

1/10th the number of pedestrians killed.

About 1/20th the number of people shot.

About 1/25th of the number of people who die from plain old falls.

Less than the number of bicyclists killed.

Cops kill nearly half as many people as GA aircraft do.

Hell, some estimates have DOCTORS (and legal drugs) killing more than 10
times the number of people that GA does, just by their mistakes.


So I can think of many more probably ways to die other than being killed as
.... or by ... an aging pilot.

[Jose]

> There's more of them, more fatalities,
> and it is difficult to get older folks out from behind the wheel.
>
> I'm thinking aviation is easier to pick on, since there are fewer
> pilots than drivers, and old folks don't equate flying with personal
> freedom, as they do with driving.

I think you hit it on the head. Older people who cannot fly are not
deprived of their lifebloood (notwithstanding the bloke in Iowa). But
take driving away, especially in large areas of the country, and the
elderly are pretty much abandoned.

Everything carries a risk, and I think the immense difference in quality
of life between being able to drive, and being cooped up at home with
almost no way to buy a can of beans on your own, is worth the risk of
having older people behind the wheel. Especially if they realize their
own limitations and abide by them.

Jose
--
Nothing takes longer than a shortcut.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

[Chris Wells]

It seems that the issue is being dodged here. I've thought about this for some time, and I'd like to see some discussion.

I have friends who are getting on, and who can barely drive a car. They are still flying planes. It would seem to me that flying a plane is more difficult than driving a car. While I certainly wouldn't want someone else telling me I couldn't fly anymore, I would like to think I have the responsibility to at least fly in a manner so that no one else could be hurt if I lost control of the plane, if not the will to quit flying completely when my reflexes are dulled, and my eyesight shot.

I know this is a sensitive subject, and I don't mean to hurt anyone. I hope that I live to be an old, old man myself. But it is a fact that when you get old, your abilities start to fade. This is a fact as painful as that of our mortality. While this factor is different for different people, and there may be 90 year old pilots who are more skilled than most 40-year old pilots, if you live long enough these things will happen to you.

I'm all for freedom, and I would never support taking away someone's right to fly. I understand the media's habit of focusing on certain issues for hidden agendas, and I believe this article may be related to what I perceive as an attack on general aviation. But the issue is still valid and relevant.

[nrp]

About 15 years ago I ran into a fellow at Oshkosh selling a beautiful
polished metal Cessna 170. It was his 80+ year old Dad's airplane.
They also had to take away his driving keys too. I asked which went
first - the ability to drive or to fly? He thought more than a bit
before stating that really it was his ability to drive.

[Jim Macklin]

Driving is more difficult than flying, car are not stable
and there is traffic all the time. But that said, neither
cars or planes are safe in the hands of a person who has
lost "normal" reaction times. When you get your DL renewed
or a new medical they check your vision to see if you can
tell the difference between a stop sign and a school bus or
an E and F. I've seen a lot of old people (Q-tips) behind
the wheel and they scare me.

I think that a Nerf football or baseball should be used by
doctors and DL examiners to test reaction times, without
being warned [except by signs posted] the examiner should
toss the ball AT the applicant from about 5-10 feet away.
This should be done to young and old alike [no
discrimination.] If they did not at least react BEFORE the
ball hit them by trying to dodge, catch or deflect the ball
before it passed them, they are either on drugs, drunk, too
old and should not be driving or flying. IMHO.


--
James H. Macklin
ATP,CFI,A&P

--
The people think the Constitution protects their rights;
But government sees it as an obstacle to be overcome.
some support
http://www.usdoj.gov/olc/secondamendment2.htm
See http://www.fija.org/ more about your rights and duties.


"nrp" > wrote in message
oups.com...
| About 15 years ago I ran into a fellow at Oshkosh selling
a beautiful
| polished metal Cessna 170. It was his 80+ year old Dad's
airplane.
| They also had to take away his driving keys too. I asked
which went
| first - the ability to drive or to fly? He thought more
than a bit
| before stating that really it was his ability to drive.
|

[Orval Fairbairn]

In article >,
Jose > wrote:

> > There's more of them, more fatalities,
> > and it is difficult to get older folks out from behind the wheel.
> >
> > I'm thinking aviation is easier to pick on, since there are fewer
> > pilots than drivers, and old folks don't equate flying with personal
> > freedom, as they do with driving.
>
> I think you hit it on the head. Older people who cannot fly are not
> deprived of their lifebloood (notwithstanding the bloke in Iowa). But
> take driving away, especially in large areas of the country, and the
> elderly are pretty much abandoned.
>
> Everything carries a risk, and I think the immense difference in quality
> of life between being able to drive, and being cooped up at home with
> almost no way to buy a can of beans on your own, is worth the risk of
> having older people behind the wheel. Especially if they realize their
> own limitations and abide by them.
>
> Jose

I have a friend, former Chief Pilot for Eastern, who just turned 90. He
is mentally sharper than a lot of people half his age -- and he still
flies! Another old Eastern pilot, Joe(?) Miller, just turned 100 and
still flies his Bonanza. He landed somewhere and tried to rent a car and
was told that he was too old! How about them apples?

[Aluckyguess]

Smoking kills more and those who moke dont seem to care.
When your time is up its up.

[Larry Dighera]

On Sat, 18 Mar 2006 11:59:56 +0000, Chris Wells
> wrote in
>::

>It would seem to me that flying a plane
>is more difficult than driving a car. While I certainly wouldn't want
>someone else telling me I couldn't fly anymore, I would like to think I
>have the responsibility to at least fly in a manner so that no one else
>could be hurt if I lost control of the plane, if not the will to quit
>flying completely when my reflexes are dulled, and my eyesight shot.

You won't need any will when the time comes. Your AME or CFI who
administers your biennial flight review will do that for us all.

[Sylvain]

Jim Macklin wrote:

> an E and F. I've seen a lot of old people (Q-tips) behind
> the wheel and they scare me.

now they are also less likely to do something utterly stupid just
to impress their friends or because they think their reflexes
are so much superiors to others... I am more scared, by
a long shot, by teenage drivers (at least they are easy to
recognize from a distance :-), and I believe that statistics
confirms this.

--Sylvain

[Cub Driver]

On Sat, 18 Mar 2006 10:48:05 -0600, "Jim Macklin"
> wrote:

>Driving is more difficult than flying, car are not stable
>and there is traffic all the time. But that said, neither

OTOH, it is a lot easier to park a car than to land a plane.

>an E and F. I've seen a lot of old people (Q-tips) behind
>the wheel and they scare me.

There was a gal in our university town who drove to the supermarket
once a week. When she got herself and her bags settled in the car,
she'd call out to the students: "Young man! Young man!" When someone
with Boy Scout training came over to see what she wanted, she'd have
him reach in from the passenger side and place her right foot on the
gas pedal. Then she'd drive away.

Evidently her left leg was okay.



-- all the best, Dan Ford

email: usenet AT danford DOT net

Warbird's Forum: www.warbirdforum.com
Piper Cub Forum: www.pipercubforum.com
In Search of Lost Time: www.readingproust.com

[Cub Driver]

On Sat, 18 Mar 2006 19:30:04 GMT, Orval Fairbairn
> wrote:

> He landed somewhere and tried to rent a car and
>was told that he was too old! How about them apples?

In When Thunder Rolled, Ed Rasimus tells the story of the F-105
veteran from Vietnam who returned from his tour but was unable to rent
a car at San Francisco because he was too young.


-- all the best, Dan Ford

email: usenet AT danford DOT net

Warbird's Forum: www.warbirdforum.com
Piper Cub Forum: www.pipercubforum.com
In Search of Lost Time: www.readingproust.com

[Jim Macklin]

A few years ago I saw an old woman driving her car at the
grocery store. Actually I saw her parking; for about 5
minutes. She wanted to park between the lines, an
admirable goal. But she kept missing the space so she would
back up, pull forward, turn left and right. She kept on
missing by about 3-5 feet. Eventually she got it straight
and in between the lines. I swear, I'm not making this up.

I hope the woman you mentioned never had to stop in a hurry,
maybe she uses her left foot to brake.


--
James H. Macklin
ATP,CFI,A&P

--
The people think the Constitution protects their rights;
But government sees it as an obstacle to be overcome.
some support
http://www.usdoj.gov/olc/secondamendment2.htm
See http://www.fija.org/ more about your rights and duties.


"Cub Driver" <usenet AT danford DOT net> wrote in message
...
| On Sat, 18 Mar 2006 10:48:05 -0600, "Jim Macklin"
| > wrote:
|
| >Driving is more difficult than flying, car are not stable
| >and there is traffic all the time. But that said,
neither
|
| OTOH, it is a lot easier to park a car than to land a
plane.
|
| >an E and F. I've seen a lot of old people (Q-tips)
behind
| >the wheel and they scare me.
|
| There was a gal in our university town who drove to the
supermarket
| once a week. When she got herself and her bags settled in
the car,
| she'd call out to the students: "Young man! Young man!"
When someone
| with Boy Scout training came over to see what she wanted,
she'd have
| him reach in from the passenger side and place her right
foot on the
| gas pedal. Then she'd drive away.
|
| Evidently her left leg was okay.
|
|
|
| -- all the best, Dan Ford
|
| email: usenet AT danford DOT net
|
| Warbird's Forum: www.warbirdforum.com
| Piper Cub Forum: www.pipercubforum.com
| In Search of Lost Time: www.readingproust.com

[Jim Macklin]

Most car rentals want a credit card and you must be 25.
There a young man who joined the police force in Florida at
age 18. Because of Federal law, his mother had to buy his
gun and ammunition for him.


--
James H. Macklin
ATP,CFI,A&P

--
The people think the Constitution protects their rights;
But government sees it as an obstacle to be overcome.
some support
http://www.usdoj.gov/olc/secondamendment2.htm
See http://www.fija.org/ more about your rights and duties.


"Cub Driver" <usenet AT danford DOT net> wrote in message
...
| On Sat, 18 Mar 2006 19:30:04 GMT, Orval Fairbairn
| > wrote:
|
| > He landed somewhere and tried to rent a car and
| >was told that he was too old! How about them apples?
|
| In When Thunder Rolled, Ed Rasimus tells the story of the
F-105
| veteran from Vietnam who returned from his tour but was
unable to rent
| a car at San Francisco because he was too young.
|
|
| -- all the best, Dan Ford
|
| email: usenet AT danford DOT net
|
| Warbird's Forum: www.warbirdforum.com
| Piper Cub Forum: www.pipercubforum.com
| In Search of Lost Time: www.readingproust.com

[[email protected]]

There are many things that affect our driving and flying.
Being careless while young is one issue, and some states are looking at
changing the minimum age driving rules because of this.

But sticking to the issue of ageing..
There are different problems with flying and driving. Driving a car is
easy; dodging all the idiots, in what amounts to a trip-long reaction
test, is not. Think of all the signs you have to sort out, intepret,
and react to at some high speed. Look for lights, kids, cars, bumps,
brakes, cops, snowballs, etc. What you need to know to drive is
minimal; what you have to do at all times is incredible.

Flying is itself harder, but that is possibly compensated for by much
practice. You have to study and learn a lot, and it can be hectic near
an airport from time to time. But generally, it is calm and it's
usually not a reaction test. You have a lot to do, but that involve
radio, navigation, and other such things as can be practiced. You
don't have traffic lights (once up and away), too much traffic to
dodge, signs, tailgaters, and the whole host of perils that exist on
the roads. You really don't have to worry about nearly as many
airplanes hitting you as you do cars. When was the last time you heard
of a 90-airplane pileup on the runway?

And while there are some boneheads amongst us pilots (you all and me
excluded, of course ;<) ) I generally like to think that pilots are a
bit more courteous and attentive than the average car driver.

When I get as old as I plan on, I intend to keep flying. I may make
the decision to fly only with an instructor or other qualified back-up
pilot in the right seat, just in case. I'd still be the pilot, I'd
still be flying. Perhaps a requirement similar to this on a
certificate is appropriate (Ho jeez, I hope the FAA doesn't see
this--yet another regulation.) Airplanes have another advantage
here--you usually have dual controls; cars never do.

I am certain that drivers who age and lose their ability to get around
by car on their own still have to be taken out from behind the wheel.
Our society doesn't deal with this very well, since we seem to reject
mass transit and prefer jammed roadways in celebration of "freedom?".
We also seeem to think that "respecting" them means allowing them to
do whatever they wish, regardless of the dangers to the general public
and themselves. I don't think we take this attitude with any other
identifiable segment of our society.

But I'd sure hate to get wiped out because some person of advanced
experience couldn't get to a brake pedal on time, and we let them
continue to drive just to make them feel independent.

[Jose]

> and prefer jammed roadways in celebration of "freedom?".

Maybe in the city, but many people live far from mass transit, and mass
transit only works where there is a "mass" to transit.

> We also seeem to think that "respecting" them means allowing them to
> do whatever they wish,

I don't think that is the case.

> ...and we let them
> continue to drive just to make them feel independent.

It's not a question of "feeling". If we take the cars away, who will
drive them the six miles to the grocery store?

Jose
--
Nothing takes longer than a shortcut.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

[[email protected]]

It has been my experience over the past 50 or so years, the older
pilots are more aware of their shortcomings/experience and will admit
them. The young guys are less open or hesitant to say they don't know
or understand something. I'm actively teaching both FW/RW and the older
guys take their time while the young studs want it all ...NOW NOW NOW.
It appears the majority of professional pilots are pretty near the 45
or older age and most of them are very aware of what they are doing and
how to do it. Just as importantly they can recognize how NOT to do it
via exposure and experience.
As for some of the specifics in the article, I got the impression that
after you hit 50 you are over the hill and unsafe.
Here I am at 70 with 23,000 hours logged and still teaching both young
and old dogs a lot of new tricks. If I end up in an accident, will that
add fuel to my being over the hill and unsafe due to an advanced age?

[[email protected]]

Jose wrote:
>> ...and we let them
>> continue to drive just to make them feel independent.

>It's not a question of "feeling". If we take the cars away, who will
>drive them the six miles to the grocery store?

You are right of course, since we so rarely have alternate
transportation. There are a few "senior ride" type programs, but they
are insufficient. That gets us into a whole new discussion about doing
things for just seniors instead of everybody, and I'm not wanting to go
there because it's one of my favorite soapboxes.

Still, if the drivers are unsafe, you must get them out of the cars.
Who drives them to the grocery store is a secondary question.
Otherwise, you have to ask who will drive them--and others--to the
hospital or morgue.

The same thing exists for ageing pilots, but I don't see it as a major
problem. There are fewer of us, and flying isn't much of a requirement
for normal living as is a car. Unless you are a pilot, I suppose....

[AES]

In article >,
Jose > wrote:

> > ...and we let them
> > continue to drive just to make them feel independent.
>
> It's not a question of "feeling". If we take the cars away, who will
> drive them the six miles to the grocery store?
>

When you reach my age you'll start to be interested in and learn about
the ideas for "virtual retirement communities" that are just now
emerging in lots of areas, to solve this and many other problems.

Or try

<http://www.stanford.edu/~siegman/passengers_as_packets.html>

[Matt Barrow]

> wrote in message
oups.com...
> There are many things that affect our driving and flying.
> Being careless while young is one issue, and some states are looking at
> changing the minimum age driving rules because of this.

I think you're confusing "careless" versus "reckless". What teens do is
typically _reckless_; what old geezers do is _careless_.

At least the reckless driver is somewhat aware of what's going on around
them (especially after they get older), but the careless driver is off in
the ozone.

When I was doing road building in the 80's, it was pretty much acknowledged
that three-fourths of fatal TAs were due to carelessness (not as latently
deadly as recklessness, but way more common). Most commonly it was blowing a
traffic sign while "daydreaming".


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

[Matt Barrow]

> wrote in message
ups.com...
> Jose wrote:
>>> ...and we let them
>>> continue to drive just to make them feel independent.
>
>>It's not a question of "feeling". If we take the cars away, who will
>>drive them the six miles to the grocery store?
>
> You are right of course, since we so rarely have alternate
> transportation. There are a few "senior ride" type programs, but they
> are insufficient.

Boy, you should take a tour of a typical "Seizure World"! :~)

[Matt Barrow]

"Jim Macklin" > wrote in message
news:JpdTf.118056$QW2.90111@dukeread08...
> Most car rentals want a credit card and you must be 25.
> There a young man who joined the police force in Florida at
> age 18. Because of Federal law, his mother had to buy his
> gun and ammunition for him.
>
>
Sounds like an urban legend as PD's won't hire until 21.

[Matt Barrow]

Then again, sometimes the old farts just keep doing it better.

http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief.asp?ev_id=20030724X01192&key=1

[[email protected]]

Matt Barrow wrote:
> > wrote in message

> > You are right of course, since we so rarely have alternate
> > transportation. There are a few "senior ride" type programs, but they
> > are insufficient.
>
> Boy, you should take a tour of a typical "Seizure World"! :~)

If you are talking about the kind of thing I think you are, we have a
number of them here in the Phoenix area. Sun Lakes is just a few miles
away. They're kinda nice, actually. Well done, upper-cut homes,
waking paths, and many houses have a mini-garage used to house their
golf cart, which gets them around the neighborhood and the local
grocery store. Hey, why do you hafta be a geezer to get that kind of
deal? 8<)
The reality is that those folks are pretty darn well off. Many of the
houses are only occuppied in the winter half of the year.

And, they still have cars, and lots of motorhomes, so the issue of
aging drivers still remains.

Do they have planes??? I'm thinking most don't since they are
organizing to complain about Memorial Airfield maybe becoming
operational on the Indian Reservation nearby. Oops, that a whole
'nother thread.

[Jose]

> Still, if the drivers are unsafe, you must get them out of the cars.

Agreed, FSVO "unsafe". But what is that V?

Jose
--
Nothing takes longer than a shortcut.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

[David CL Francis]

On Sat, 18 Mar 2006 at 10:48:05 in message
<nPWSf.117909$QW2.29237@dukeread08>, Jim Macklin
> wrote:

>I think that a Nerf football or baseball should be used by
>doctors and DL examiners to test reaction times, without
>being warned [except by signs posted] the examiner should
>toss the ball AT the applicant from about 5-10 feet away.
>This should be done to young and old alike [no
>discrimination.] If they did not at least react BEFORE the
>ball hit them by trying to dodge, catch or deflect the ball
>before it passed them, they are either on drugs, drunk, too
>old and should not be driving or flying. IMHO.
>
I confess I am an older driver. But over the years I have watched myself
and others and come to the conclusion that reaction time is not the most
important factor. The most important aptitude required, in my opinion,
is anticipation. That is the ability to notice and react to personal
predictions of the short term future and to recognise potential hazards
before they need _any_ significant reaction time.

If reaction time was all important then (this true in the UK) the 18 -
25 year old group of male drivers would not pay high premiums nor have
higher accident rates then any other. That group tend to have a high
opinion of their own skills and are more likely to take unnecessary
risks.

You certainly do deteriorate with age and everyone ought to decide for
themselves, assuming they are reasonably fit, when they should give up.
Sometimes friends or relations may give guidance sometimes it is a
medical condition that cannot be ignored. Older people drive with larger
vehicle spacing and tend to avoid difficult manoeuvres. Those that
require turning your head through 180 degrees for example. Occasionally
reaction time is vital but in most cases the need for it would not arise
if the dangerous situation was avoided early.

Distraction from the job in hand can be dangerous. I always cringe when
I watch drivers in movies look at their front seat passenger for long
seconds!

I have driven in the USA as well as in the UK - but not as much! I have
much less experience of flying but I would have thought that rapid
reaction times (as opposed to making correct decisions) are even less
needed in the air although judgement and prediction are even more
important.

I concede that a lot of older drivers avoid, if they can, unfamiliar and
complex roads and junctions. I also try to avoid night driving.

On the other hand I once saw a TV programme about quite a young female
driver who never made right turns. (If you are in the USA read _left_
turns). She spent hours studying maps and would go 15 or more miles
extra to drive only left turns. You may well ask how she got through her
driving test. For those who are unfamiliar with roundabouts she only
entered if she could leave at the first exit. I arranged for an
American friend of mine visiting us in the UK to drive my car. He was
unable to cope with roundabouts at all!

One of my stepsons (I think he was winding me up) said that he felt the
greatest hazard on the roads was old drivers keeping at or below the
speed limits!! :-) Perhaps he was kidding as well, because has now
lived and worked in the USA since 1997 and has yet to collect a speeding
ticket. He is the same guy who when he was 18 thought it was hardly
worth living beyond 30. We went to his 50th Birthday last year!

However I believe my reaction time is still pretty good and my eyesight
has just been thoroughly checked both for acuity and peripheral field.

One thing is probably sure is that your attitude does change somewhat
with age!
--
David CL Francis

[Matt Barrow]

"David CL Francis" > wrote in message
> I confess I am an older driver. But over the years I have watched myself
> and others and come to the conclusion that reaction time is not the most
> important factor. The most important aptitude required, in my opinion, is
> anticipation. That is the ability to notice and react to personal
> predictions of the short term future and to recognise potential hazards
> before they need _any_ significant reaction time.

Funny how often those predictions are wrong (one way or the other).

Is that why older drivers speed up, slow down, speed up, slow down, speed
up...slam on brakes...?

Works great on a freeway...which I notice many older drivers do tend to
use...during rush hour...in the left lanes...

>
> If reaction time was all important then (this true in the UK) the 18 - 25
> year old group of male drivers would not pay high premiums nor have higher
> accident rates then any other. That group tend to have a high opinion of
> their own skills and are more likely to take unnecessary risks.

Note this next paragraph.

>
> Distraction from the job in hand can be dangerous. I always cringe when I
> watch drivers in movies look at their front seat passenger for long
> seconds!

Now put those last two together and see what you come up with.

(PS: No one said reaction time is ALL important)
--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
(13 years in traffic engineering)

[Travis Marlatte]

Satistics can usually provide whatever answer you were seeking.

For example, the stats indicate the older pilots are more likely to be
involved in an accident relative to their ratio to the entire population.
Nothing in there about flying time. Maybe older pilots fly more because they
worked during their younger years to earn some freedom. More flying time -
more exposure to the same level of risk as the younger crowd.

I'm not saying that the conclusion of the report is wrong. Just that it
means nothing to me without more data.

My uncle quit flying in his 50's. He had been flying for many years. Owned
several single-engine planes. Still very capable but he took off with the
gust lock on the rudder. Landed safely and never went back.


I'm sure that there is a trade off in getting older. More experience. Better
ability to anticipate. Slower reaction time. More snoozing while Otto
drives. I plan to keep flying until it takes me at least three hops to get
up on the step. Well that's my plan anyway...

--
-------------------------------
Travis
"Matt Barrow" > wrote in message
...
>
> "David CL Francis" > wrote in message
>> I confess I am an older driver. But over the years I have watched myself
>> and others and come to the conclusion that reaction time is not the most
>> important factor. The most important aptitude required, in my opinion,
>> is anticipation. That is the ability to notice and react to personal
>> predictions of the short term future and to recognise potential hazards
>> before they need _any_ significant reaction time.
>
> Funny how often those predictions are wrong (one way or the other).
>
> Is that why older drivers speed up, slow down, speed up, slow down, speed
> up...slam on brakes...?
>
> Works great on a freeway...which I notice many older drivers do tend to
> use...during rush hour...in the left lanes...
>
>>
>> If reaction time was all important then (this true in the UK) the 18 - 25
>> year old group of male drivers would not pay high premiums nor have
>> higher accident rates then any other. That group tend to have a high
>> opinion of their own skills and are more likely to take unnecessary
>> risks.
>
> Note this next paragraph.
>
>>
>> Distraction from the job in hand can be dangerous. I always cringe when I
>> watch drivers in movies look at their front seat passenger for long
>> seconds!
>
> Now put those last two together and see what you come up with.
>
> (PS: No one said reaction time is ALL important)
> --
> Matt
> ---------------------
> Matthew W. Barrow
> (13 years in traffic engineering)
>

[David CL Francis]

On Tue, 21 Mar 2006 at 07:13:45 in message
>, Matt Barrow
> wrote:
>
>"David CL Francis" > wrote in message
>> I confess I am an older driver. But over the years I have watched myself
>> and others and come to the conclusion that reaction time is not the most
>> important factor. The most important aptitude required, in my opinion, is
>> anticipation. That is the ability to notice and react to personal
>> predictions of the short term future and to recognise potential hazards
>> before they need _any_ significant reaction time.
>
>Funny how often those predictions are wrong (one way or the other).
>
>Is that why older drivers speed up, slow down, speed up, slow down, speed
>up...slam on brakes...?

Who says they do?
>
>Works great on a freeway...which I notice many older drivers do tend to
>use...during rush hour...in the left lanes...
>

You sound a bit like my son-in-law in his most provocative mode.

Frankly I was unable to solve the object of your reply. What the above 3
little paragraphs mean I am unable to determine. Perhaps I can try to
clarify prediction a little and think about sports like tennis baseball,
cricket, squash and many others. Skilled players seem have a built in
unconscious prediction system as their available reaction times are
insufficient to explain their skills.
>>
>> If reaction time was all important then (this true in the UK) the 18 - 25
>> year old group of male drivers would not pay high premiums nor have higher
>> accident rates then any other. That group tend to have a high opinion of
>> their own skills and are more likely to take unnecessary risks.
>
>Note this next paragraph.
>
>>
>> Distraction from the job in hand can be dangerous. I always cringe when I
>> watch drivers in movies look at their front seat passenger for long
>> seconds!
>
>Now put those last two together and see what you come up with.
>
I come up with nothing. As far as I am concerned they are both comments
on all driving.

>(PS: No one said reaction time is ALL important)

Someone certainly implied it with his proposals for throwing balls at
people unexpectedly.

There is a little phrase that I came across for you,
"A good driver is one who makes the same mistakes as you do."
--
David CL Francis