1000km Soaring Weather coming to NV CA SW U.S. - Fri-Sun 06/23-25

[WaltWX]

Great soaring weather is coming this weekend (Fri-Sun 06/23 to 06/25
.... and a few days beyond) to the SW U.S. Deserts (CA, NV Mojave Owens
Valley).

Finally the 500mb Four Corners High will be building in providing a
light NE to SE flow into the Mojave Deserts and SW side of the Great
Basin regin. Later in the summer this can cause extensiv e Monsoon
moisture and thunderstorms. But this early in the season, CU fields
should be extensive with only a few aftern thunderstorms. Cloud bases
should be in the 16,000 to 18,000msl range (just like you guys in
Colorado/New Mexico have had for some time :).

Watch out Colorado racing guys... Boulder... 5Z ... John Seaborn...
Bill Hill ... Albuquerque Soaring!

The California Racers will be having their fun!

Walt Rogers, WX - Discus 2A

[[email protected]]

Walt:

If you had to pick one day this weekend, which would it be?

Ray Warshaw
1LK

WaltWX wrote:
> Great soaring weather is coming this weekend (Fri-Sun 06/23 to 06/25
> ... and a few days beyond) to the SW U.S. Deserts (CA, NV Mojave Owens
> Valley).
>
> Finally the 500mb Four Corners High will be building in providing a
> light NE to SE flow into the Mojave Deserts and SW side of the Great
> Basin regin. Later in the summer this can cause extensiv e Monsoon
> moisture and thunderstorms. But this early in the season, CU fields
> should be extensive with only a few aftern thunderstorms. Cloud bases
> should be in the 16,000 to 18,000msl range (just like you guys in
> Colorado/New Mexico have had for some time :).
>
> Watch out Colorado racing guys... Boulder... 5Z ... John Seaborn...
> Bill Hill ... Albuquerque Soaring!
>
> The California Racers will be having their fun!
>
> Walt Rogers, WX - Discus 2A

[WaltWX]

Friday and Saturday are toss up right now for the classic 1000km zig
zag or triangle from the Western Mojave Desert into SW NV... or for the
people flying out of Warner Springs.

Too early to say...

Walt, WX

[BTIZ]

Walt... what effect will the haze/smoke from the SoCal fires have?

Right now, it is 105F at 1630Lcl, and I was surprised, it was a rather
smooth descent today into LAS from the west. A few bumps as we entered the
haze/inversion layer at about 17KMSL, a few more bumps over RedRocks to the
west of the city, only 5K AGL or less crossing the ridge and not the normal
roughness one normally receives. Really a smooth ride around the valley
lining up for the runway.

Tonight's low is forecast as 77F in LAS and 66F in Pahrump, Sandy Valley and
Primm with 110F forecast high for Sat/Sun. We are currently under the dome
of High pressure, and as it moves east this weekend, the hotter temps from
the south will be pulled in with S to SW winds.

We'll be looking for all you SoCal cross-country racers to be landing at
Jean this weekend.

BT
LVVSA

"WaltWX" > wrote in message
ups.com...
> Friday and Saturday are toss up right now for the classic 1000km zig
> zag or triangle from the Western Mojave Desert into SW NV... or for the
> people flying out of Warner Springs.
>
> Too early to say...
>
> Walt, WX
>

[JS]

>
> "WaltWX" wrote in message
> > Friday and Saturday are toss up right now for the classic 1000km zig
> > zag or triangle from the Western Mojave Desert into SW NV... or for the
> > people flying out of Warner Springs.
> >
> > Too early to say...
> >
> > Walt, WX
> >

>From the feel of the weather in Tehachapi today, I'd imagine a peak on
Saturday or Sunday.

Jim

[WaltWX]

It's going to stay dry (blue) for Fri Sat in the NE corner of the Great
Basin. Very dry airmass but with thermals in Central NV probably to
24,000msl.

By Sun/Mon or beyond cloud bases may come down to 18,000-21,000msl

Walt

TTaylor at cc.usu.edu wrote:
> WaltWX wrote:
> > Friday and Saturday are toss up right now for the classic 1000km zig
> > zag or triangle from the Western Mojave Desert into SW NV... or for the
> > people flying out of Warner Springs.
> >
> > Too early to say...
> >
> > Walt, WX
>
> Walt,
>
> What is the outlook for those of us on the NE corner of the basin? The
> forecast is for hot this weekend, but we have not had cloud cover for
> the last week. Yes we are all tired of seeing the 18 to 20 K heights
> in CO and NM, except the pilots there of course.
>
> Tim
> Logan, UT

[WaltWX]

Saturday looks SPECTACULAR. I can't image it being any better...
except, perhaps, for some Cu to mark things. Sun Mon may have that ...
and will also be very good days.

Walt


JS wrote:
> >
> > "WaltWX" wrote in message
> > > Friday and Saturday are toss up right now for the classic 1000km zig
> > > zag or triangle from the Western Mojave Desert into SW NV... or for the
> > > people flying out of Warner Springs.
> > >
> > > Too early to say...
> > >
> > > Walt, WX
> > >
>
> >From the feel of the weather in Tehachapi today, I'd imagine a peak on
> Saturday or Sunday.
>
> Jim

[Mike the Strike]

As of early afternoon Thursday, pre-monsoon moisture has made its way
north of Phoenix - further than models had originally predicted - and
current predictions for the weekend in Arizona are for a couple of 750
km days here, especially in the south.

Mike


WaltWX wrote:
> Saturday looks SPECTACULAR. I can't image it being any better...
> except, perhaps, for some Cu to mark things. Sun Mon may have that ...
> and will also be very good days.
>
> Walt
>
>
> JS wrote:
> > >
> > > "WaltWX" wrote in message
> > > > Friday and Saturday are toss up right now for the classic 1000km zig
> > > > zag or triangle from the Western Mojave Desert into SW NV... or for the
> > > > people flying out of Warner Springs.
> > > >
> > > > Too early to say...
> > > >
> > > > Walt, WX
> > > >
> >
> > >From the feel of the weather in Tehachapi today, I'd imagine a peak on
> > Saturday or Sunday.
> >
> > Jim

[Mike the Strike]

HA! So much for our forecasts.

"Weather forecasts are like horoscopes with numbers"

Mike


Mike the Strike wrote:
> As of early afternoon Thursday, pre-monsoon moisture has made its way
> north of Phoenix - further than models had originally predicted - and
> current predictions for the weekend in Arizona are for a couple of 750
> km days here, especially in the south.
>
> Mike
>
>
> WaltWX wrote:
> > Saturday looks SPECTACULAR. I can't image it being any better...
> > except, perhaps, for some Cu to mark things. Sun Mon may have that ...
> > and will also be very good days.
> >
> > Walt
> >
> >
> > JS wrote:
> > > >
> > > > "WaltWX" wrote in message
> > > > > Friday and Saturday are toss up right now for the classic 1000km zig
> > > > > zag or triangle from the Western Mojave Desert into SW NV... or for the
> > > > > people flying out of Warner Springs.
> > > > >
> > > > > Too early to say...
> > > > >
> > > > > Walt, WX
> > > > >
> > >
> > > >From the feel of the weather in Tehachapi today, I'd imagine a peak on
> > > Saturday or Sunday.
> > >
> > > Jim

[309]

So you'd prefer the Specialized Soaring Forecasters like Walt to return
to not sharing their predictions with us?

I for one spent many valuable kitchen passes to show up on the ramp at
Cal City in hopes of flying a 500k in my 1-26. Walt was even gracious
enough to give me cuts in the launch line to try and get airborne just
a little earlier. With more than double my L/D, Kevin Wayt flew 860
km, while I seem to have forgotten how to soar.

Thanks again, Walt...keep the forecasts coming -- it got me to change
my priorities for the weekend and go soar rather than just fly. And
thanks for giving me consideration in the line...I'm all the more sorry
for not capitalizing on it. I still had fun, and despite the fact that
I drove to Lone Pine (vs. Soaring there), the wife & daughter enjoyed
their special weekend.

Here's to the SSF's like Walt & Dan.

So Mike, when was the last time DUATS gave you a three-day headsup on
decent forecast conditions (right, wrong or indifferent)?

-Pete
#309

Mike the Strike wrote:
> HA! So much for our forecasts.
>
> "Weather forecasts are like horoscopes with numbers"
>

[Mitch]

Pete,

Mike was simply talking forecaster to forecaster. Mike is universally
recognized as Arizona Soaring Association's weather guru. He regularly
posts his forecasts (Right or wrong) onto the ASA webpage:
http://www.asa-soaring.org/ If you check it out, he was predicting
much the same weather, and was simply joking about the blunder.

-From New Mexico, where the soaring is STILL great,
Echo X-Ray



309 wrote:
> So you'd prefer the Specialized Soaring Forecasters like Walt to return
> to not sharing their predictions with us?
>
> I for one spent many valuable kitchen passes to show up on the ramp at
> Cal City in hopes of flying a 500k in my 1-26. Walt was even gracious
> enough to give me cuts in the launch line to try and get airborne just
> a little earlier. With more than double my L/D, Kevin Wayt flew 860
> km, while I seem to have forgotten how to soar.
>
> Thanks again, Walt...keep the forecasts coming -- it got me to change
> my priorities for the weekend and go soar rather than just fly. And
> thanks for giving me consideration in the line...I'm all the more sorry
> for not capitalizing on it. I still had fun, and despite the fact that
> I drove to Lone Pine (vs. Soaring there), the wife & daughter enjoyed
> their special weekend.
>
> Here's to the SSF's like Walt & Dan.
>
> So Mike, when was the last time DUATS gave you a three-day headsup on
> decent forecast conditions (right, wrong or indifferent)?
>
> -Pete
> #309
>
> Mike the Strike wrote:
> > HA! So much for our forecasts.
> >
> > "Weather forecasts are like horoscopes with numbers"
> >

[Mike the Strike]

Thanks Mitch.

Indeed my comment was directed as much at myself as anyone and was
highlighting the difficulty of soaring forecasts rather than vilifying
individuals. We were all expecting the influx of moisture, typical of
the pre-monsoon conditions, to bring superb conditions.

Here in Arizona, the moisture spread a lot of mid and high level cloud
and pushed much further and quicker than expected. I had my own ship
prepped and ready to go and was disappointed when conditions tanked.

Mike



Mitch wrote:
> Pete,
>
> Mike was simply talking forecaster to forecaster. Mike is universally
> recognized as Arizona Soaring Association's weather guru. He regularly
> posts his forecasts (Right or wrong) onto the ASA webpage:
> http://www.asa-soaring.org/ If you check it out, he was predicting
> much the same weather, and was simply joking about the blunder.
>
> -From New Mexico, where the soaring is STILL great,
> Echo X-Ray
>
>
>
> 309 wrote:
> > So you'd prefer the Specialized Soaring Forecasters like Walt to return
> > to not sharing their predictions with us?
> >
> > I for one spent many valuable kitchen passes to show up on the ramp at
> > Cal City in hopes of flying a 500k in my 1-26. Walt was even gracious
> > enough to give me cuts in the launch line to try and get airborne just
> > a little earlier. With more than double my L/D, Kevin Wayt flew 860
> > km, while I seem to have forgotten how to soar.
> >
> > Thanks again, Walt...keep the forecasts coming -- it got me to change
> > my priorities for the weekend and go soar rather than just fly. And
> > thanks for giving me consideration in the line...I'm all the more sorry
> > for not capitalizing on it. I still had fun, and despite the fact that
> > I drove to Lone Pine (vs. Soaring there), the wife & daughter enjoyed
> > their special weekend.
> >
> > Here's to the SSF's like Walt & Dan.
> >
> > So Mike, when was the last time DUATS gave you a three-day headsup on
> > decent forecast conditions (right, wrong or indifferent)?
> >
> > -Pete
> > #309
> >
> > Mike the Strike wrote:
> > > HA! So much for our forecasts.
> > >
> > > "Weather forecasts are like horoscopes with numbers"
> > >

[Papa3]

Mike the Strike wrote:
> Thanks Mitch.
>
> Indeed my comment was directed as much at myself as anyone and was
> highlighting the difficulty of soaring forecasts rather than vilifying
> individuals. We were all expecting the influx of moisture, typical of
> the pre-monsoon conditions, to bring superb conditions.
>
> Here in Arizona, the moisture spread a lot of mid and high level cloud
> and pushed much further and quicker than expected. I had my own ship
> prepped and ready to go and was disappointed when conditions tanked.
>
> Mike
>
>

Tell me about it. A couple of weeks back I predicted 750K - 1000K Wx
for the New Jersey crowd. Unfortunately, winds were just a little bit
too westerly for one of the key transition ridges and cloudbase a
little bit too low to get out of the area. 10 degrees shift in winds
and 4 degrees in dewpoint and we had it made! In our sport, we
don't have to miss by much to to go from hero to zero. If it was the
golfing forecast, nobody would have noticed.

In a case of poetic justice, I did head out on that day. Got to spend
nearly 2 hours hanging on in marginal ridge at about 600 AGL. Most
folks felt this was punishment enough and were kind enough not to
comment on the missed forecast.

Erik Mann
LS8-18 (P3)

[Marc Ramsey]

I don't think it has been mentioned here, but there was at least one
1000km FAI triangle in the forecast area on Saturday. Ramy Yanetz (TG)
flew his LS4 (!) out of Truckee, to a remote start at Carson City,
Cerro Gordo, Eureka, and landed back at Carson City after some 10 hours
of flying...

Marc

[309]

My mistake, and my apologies, Mike.

That still doesn't help me explain my inability to fly away from the
field...

Kevin Wayt got out significantly earlier than I did (and is much more
experienced than I am, despite my 19:1 handicap).

It just seemed like the planets came into alignment: you guys
predicting 1000k days made me think I could eek out a 500k (in my 1-26)
with ease, it WAS a weekend day (e.g., didn't have to call in sick or
burn a vacation day or miss a meeting...), I was able to shanghai my
crew, hotels were available (e.g., not a holiday weekend). This
weekend (holiday) the hotels are likely to be booked, part of the crew
has to work on Monday (ergo, I will be Daddy Daycare on Monday) and I
haven't heard a peep from the Ace Specialized Soaring Forecasters about
great WX (pun intended, Walt!). <sigh>

Like I said, keep up the forecasting, even if you're not batting a
thousand -- it helps get me out of the easy chair and into the 1-26!

Great and safe flying to you all,

-Pete
#309

Mitch wrote:
> Pete,
>
> Mike was simply talking forecaster to forecaster. Mike is universally
> recognized as Arizona Soaring Association's weather guru. ...
> and was simply joking about the blunder.
>

[Ramy]

Marc Ramsey wrote:
> I don't think it has been mentioned here, but there was at least one
> 1000km FAI triangle in the forecast area on Saturday. Ramy Yanetz (TG)
> flew his LS4 (!) out of Truckee, to a remote start at Carson City,
> Cerro Gordo, Eureka, and landed back at Carson City after some 10 hours
> of flying...
>
> Marc

And I should mention that Walt's message was the first thing that got
my attention to start looking seriously at the weather, especially when
ETA was still down, and try to choose the day, as I had only one day
to fly. Thank's for the heads up Walt! Keep them comming.

Ramy
LS4 "TG"

[309]

Yeah...looking out of the window at work today (from Huntington Beach),
I saw big, puffy cu's abouve the San Gabriels, hovering a good 3,000
feet above the hilltops...work just seems to get in the way of
soaring...

Saturday, in my abortive attempt, the PDA suddenly went nuts as the
towrope was being drawn taught. If I recall correctly, WinPilot
appeared out of nowhere and stomped on the active (and planned) flight
in SeeYouMobile... To make life just as miserable, Monday afternoon,
trying to help a fellow employee, I installed some company approved
software...and it has since made my work laptop virtually useless.

Fortunately, this malaise has not made it to the home co_m_Putor... uh
oh...d-arn...I alwayssssss knwe that electronnnnnnnnz interrrrrrr-fered
with propppppp-er aeroddddddynamics...

helllllP meeeeee....

Safe landings (with or without electrons...or forecasts),

-Pete
#309

wrote:
> Hang in there Pete!!!
>
> I was up all night Friday night in nervous anticipation of a 750k or
> 1000k attempt. I had the canopy charged, batteries polished etc only to
> wake up to a sky full of high cloud. Didn't see a cu all day. Sigh.
>
> WA, WX, keep up those horoscopes, we appreciate them!
>
> ~ted/2NO