WaltWX
June 22nd 06, 05:46 PM
ORIGINALLY POSTED ON DRJACKT.INFO Site... Wed 9:30am PDT.
Take a look at ETA (Now the NAM or WRF model) for Fri/Sat 06/23 & 24
Fri... There is an extensive area >21,000 msl across all the Eastern
Sierras then east into Central NV. Even the Mojave Desrt of Southern
CA is showing Ti=0 max boundary layer heights 17,500 to 19,500. This
looks realistic to me given my 30 years of watching these patterns.
Cloud bases 17,000-18,000 in the Sierras where there's a little more
moisture... also over the Mojave Desert. Elsewhere... >22,000 will
make this day mostly blue... BUT SPECTACULAR SOARING!
Sat... EVEN BETTER! Larger area >21,000 thermal heights from the
Tehachapi Mtns east to Needles including all the Eastern Sierra across
most of NV.
This pattern is the "classic" 1000KM + situation for this part of the
S.W. U.S. Circulation around a large 500mb high over Western NV bring
NE to E light flow sweeping the steep lapse rates of Central NV toward
the Sierras and Western Mojave. Steep lapse rates brought their from
overnight allow early trigger times... say around 10am local. It also
keeps the stable marine air near the western edge of the deserts. All
this is reflected well in the WRF/NAM model. Low level SW-W wnds below
5000msl cut into the unstable airmass from the Tehachapi mtns extending
into the deserts about 10-20miles by 6-7pm. That means there will be
thermals trigger by the accompanying shear line probably to sunset or
beyond.
All in all... great soaring days are ahead...
Sun and Mon should also be OUTSTANDING days... with more cu markers and
isolated high based thundertorms.
Walt, WX
Take a look at ETA (Now the NAM or WRF model) for Fri/Sat 06/23 & 24
Fri... There is an extensive area >21,000 msl across all the Eastern
Sierras then east into Central NV. Even the Mojave Desrt of Southern
CA is showing Ti=0 max boundary layer heights 17,500 to 19,500. This
looks realistic to me given my 30 years of watching these patterns.
Cloud bases 17,000-18,000 in the Sierras where there's a little more
moisture... also over the Mojave Desert. Elsewhere... >22,000 will
make this day mostly blue... BUT SPECTACULAR SOARING!
Sat... EVEN BETTER! Larger area >21,000 thermal heights from the
Tehachapi Mtns east to Needles including all the Eastern Sierra across
most of NV.
This pattern is the "classic" 1000KM + situation for this part of the
S.W. U.S. Circulation around a large 500mb high over Western NV bring
NE to E light flow sweeping the steep lapse rates of Central NV toward
the Sierras and Western Mojave. Steep lapse rates brought their from
overnight allow early trigger times... say around 10am local. It also
keeps the stable marine air near the western edge of the deserts. All
this is reflected well in the WRF/NAM model. Low level SW-W wnds below
5000msl cut into the unstable airmass from the Tehachapi mtns extending
into the deserts about 10-20miles by 6-7pm. That means there will be
thermals trigger by the accompanying shear line probably to sunset or
beyond.
All in all... great soaring days are ahead...
Sun and Mon should also be OUTSTANDING days... with more cu markers and
isolated high based thundertorms.
Walt, WX