Can I relax now?

[Wizard of Draws[_1_]]

Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
to accidents. Is that true?
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

[Dan Luke]

"Wizard of Draws" wrote:

> Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
> Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
> to accidents. Is that true?

I dunno.

I passed 1,000 hours last year, also reckoned to be some kind of safety
milestone. Now, I find my problem is relaxing TOO much. Complacency is
dangerous--maybe more dangerous than inexperience.

Stay sharp, Jeff.


--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[Larry Dighera]

On Sun, 2 Jul 2006 13:06:44 -0500, "Dan Luke"
> wrote in
>::

>Complacency is dangerous--maybe more dangerous than inexperience.

[Gary Drescher]

"Wizard of Draws" > wrote in
message news:C0CD8176.7FC43%jeffbREMOVETHIS@REMOVEALSOwiza rdofdraws.com...
> Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
> Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
> to accidents. Is that true?

No, not as far as anyone has shown. The legend seems to originate with Paul
Craig's book The Killing Zone, which says that most fatalities strike pilots
between 50 and 350 flight hours. The problem, though, is that the book makes
no attempt to normalize by the number of flight hours per year flown by
pilots with various levels of experience. So for all the book really shows,
pilots in the "killing zone" may be less safe, more safe, or just as safe
(in terms of fatality rate per flight hour) than pilots at other levels of
experience. (Several of the book's reader reviews at amazon.com point out
this elementary statistical error.)

Congratulations on your milestone though!

--Gary

[Wizard of Draws[_1_]]

On 7/2/06 2:06 PM, in article , "Dan Luke"
> wrote:

>
> "Wizard of Draws" wrote:
>
>> Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
>> Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
>> to accidents. Is that true?
>
> I dunno.
>
> I passed 1,000 hours last year, also reckoned to be some kind of safety
> milestone. Now, I find my problem is relaxing TOO much. Complacency is
> dangerous--maybe more dangerous than inexperience.
>
> Stay sharp, Jeff.
>

Will do. Before this thread goes too far astray, I would like say that my
question about relaxing is tongue in cheek. It's always too hazy to relax
much around here in the Southeast and as a consequence, I always file IFR.
I'm extremely paranoid and I depend on the guys at the scopes to help out.
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

[Morgans[_1_]]

"Wizard of Draws" > wrote

> Will do. Before this thread goes too far astray, I would like say that my
> question about relaxing is tongue in cheek. It's always too hazy to relax
> much around here in the Southeast and as a consequence, I always file IFR.
> I'm extremely paranoid and I depend on the guys at the scopes to help out.

Just don't relax too much.

You can never tell when the controller gets distracted and does not notice
someone aiming at you, or when someone will be out there flying VFR with a
stealth bug-smasher 2000, and no transponder! <g>
--
Jim in NC

[Dan Luke]

"Wizard of Draws" wrote:

> It's always too hazy to relax
> much around here in the Southeast and as a consequence, I always file IFR.
> I'm extremely paranoid and I depend on the guys at the scopes to help out.

Ditto.

One of the best things about using the instrument rating? Better radar
service.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[Jose[_1_]]

> Can I relax now?

The moment you "relax", you are a target.

> It's always too hazy to relax
> much around here in the Southeast and as a consequence, I always file IFR.
> I'm extremely paranoid and I depend on the guys at the scopes to help out.

Not a good idea. "Depending on others", that is. The help is nice, but
never depend on them to separate you from VFR traffic, or traffic that
probably shouldn't be VFR but it. :)

Jose
--
The monkey turns the crank and thinks he's making the music.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

[Andrew Sarangan[_1_]]

Wizard of Draws wrote:
> Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
> Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
> to accidents. Is that true?
> --
> Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino
>
> Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
> http://www.wizardofdraws.com
>
> More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
> http://www.cartoonclipart.com

I do not have any statistical data to back this claim, but my
observation has been that there is no correlation between accident
rates and PIC hours. New pilots compensate for their lack of experience
with a greater personal minimums, while pilots with more experience
tend to cancel out their advantage with a lower personal mininums. In
the end I think they all come out even.

However, you can benefit from your experience if you do not lessen your
personal minimum as you gain experience. But I have rarely seen this
happen. Afterall, the sign of experience is the ability to do things
that others unable to.

[Jose[_1_]]

> However, you can benefit from your experience if you do not lessen your
> personal minimum as you gain experience.

Only temporarily. Then you stop gaining experience as you gain hours.

Jose
--
The monkey turns the crank and thinks he's making the music.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

[[email protected]]

This is a fundamental problem with the killing zone analysis. There is
another problem -- no adjustment for the exogeneity of innate ability
or cautiousness. That is, there's really no way to know if the pilots
who offed themselves in a few hundred hours would go on to fly for
thousands more hours if they were somehow magically revived, or if they
would have only gone and offed themselves a few hours later.

Put another way, there's no easy way to know if you, as a 300+ hour
pilot not only need not worry, but never needed to worry because you're
an innately better/smarter pilot than those other dead guys. (I'm being
facetious; of course you should worry. A pilot must constantly work to
maintain the safety of a flight.)

But statistically, this is a valid question. Are those pilot's who die
in < 300 hours different in any other way other than being < 300.
Because the of the partly self-selecting nature of making it to 300,
1000, 10000, or whatever, this is a real question. There are
statistical techniques for correcting this. Don't know if "killing
zone" does this.

-- dave, a still-worried instrument rated pilot 350 hours and a few too
many econometrics classes

-- jacobowitz73 --at-- yahoo --dot-- com

Gary Drescher wrote:
> "Wizard of Draws" > wrote in
> message news:C0CD8176.7FC43%jeffbREMOVETHIS@REMOVEALSOwiza rdofdraws.com...
> > Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
> > Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
> > to accidents. Is that true?
>
> No, not as far as anyone has shown. The legend seems to originate with Paul
> Craig's book The Killing Zone, which says that most fatalities strike pilots
> between 50 and 350 flight hours. The problem, though, is that the book makes
> no attempt to normalize by the number of flight hours per year flown by
> pilots with various levels of experience. So for all the book really shows,
> pilots in the "killing zone" may be less safe, more safe, or just as safe
> (in terms of fatality rate per flight hour) than pilots at other levels of
> experience. (Several of the book's reader reviews at amazon.com point out
> this elementary statistical error.)
>
> Congratulations on your milestone though!
>
> --Gary

[Robert A. Barker]

"Wizard of Draws" > wrote in
message news:C0CD8176.7FC43%jeffbREMOVETHIS@REMOVEALSOwiza rdofdraws.com...
> Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
> Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
> to accidents. Is that true?
> --
> Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino
>
> Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
> http://www.wizardofdraws.com
>
> More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
> http://www.cartoonclipart.com
>
Jeff:
I passed my 300 and found they droped my
premium on my insurance,not much ,but I'll take it.

All the best

Bob Barker N8749S

[Wizard of Draws[_1_]]

On 7/2/06 4:51 PM, in article
, "Jose"
> wrote:

>> Can I relax now?
>
> The moment you "relax", you are a target.
>
>> It's always too hazy to relax
>> much around here in the Southeast and as a consequence, I always file IFR.
>> I'm extremely paranoid and I depend on the guys at the scopes to help out.
>
> Not a good idea. "Depending on others", that is. The help is nice, but
> never depend on them to separate you from VFR traffic, or traffic that
> probably shouldn't be VFR but it. :)
>
> Jose

I understand that "depend" is a variable with the controller, but I have to
trust them to a good extent. If I didn't, I'd be too scared to fly in IFR
conditions, knowing that not every VFR pilot follows the rules and stays out
of the clouds.

Hell, half the time they call traffic for me, I never see it anyway. One of
the last times that happened, I ended up 300' higher by the time he became
no factor and the controller brought it to my attention with a subtle
"descend and maintain 4000' ".
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

[Wizard of Draws[_1_]]

On 7/2/06 6:50 PM, in article ,
"Robert A. Barker" > wrote:

>
> "Wizard of Draws" > wrote in
> message news:C0CD8176.7FC43%jeffbREMOVETHIS@REMOVEALSOwiza rdofdraws.com...
>> Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
>> Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
>> to accidents. Is that true?
>> --
>> Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino
>>
>> Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
>> http://www.wizardofdraws.com
>>
>> More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
>> http://www.cartoonclipart.com
>>
> Jeff:
> I passed my 300 and found they droped my
> premium on my insurance,not much ,but I'll take it.
>
> All the best
>
> Bob Barker N8749S
>
>

Yeah, I'm hoping that's the case with my insurance too. I'll have to shoot
my agent an email and ask.
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

[Wizard of Draws[_1_]]

On 7/2/06 5:53 PM, in article
. com,
" > wrote:

>
> This is a fundamental problem with the killing zone analysis. There is
> another problem -- no adjustment for the exogeneity of innate ability
> or cautiousness. That is, there's really no way to know if the pilots
> who offed themselves in a few hundred hours would go on to fly for
> thousands more hours if they were somehow magically revived, or if they
> would have only gone and offed themselves a few hours later.
>
> Put another way, there's no easy way to know if you, as a 300+ hour
> pilot not only need not worry, but never needed to worry because you're
> an innately better/smarter pilot than those other dead guys. (I'm being
> facetious; of course you should worry. A pilot must constantly work to
> maintain the safety of a flight.)
>
> But statistically, this is a valid question. Are those pilot's who die
> in < 300 hours different in any other way other than being < 300.
> Because the of the partly self-selecting nature of making it to 300,
> 1000, 10000, or whatever, this is a real question. There are
> statistical techniques for correcting this. Don't know if "killing
> zone" does this.
>
> -- dave, a still-worried instrument rated pilot 350 hours and a few too
> many econometrics classes
>
> -- jacobowitz73 --at-- yahoo --dot-- com
>

I realize that I still have to worry simply because, like on a motorcycle,
I'm at the mercy of my own skill AND the skill of the other guy out there.

I feel I'm a better pilot now than I ever have been, especially since I have
my IFR ticket, and I almost always learn something every time I fly, but
that in itself is an indication to me that something can go wrong that I
haven't foreseen or come across yet. So I worry.
--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

[Jose[_1_]]

> but I have to
> trust them to a good extent. If I didn't, I'd be too scared to fly in IFR

True enough. But watch out for what you can watch out for regardless. :)

Jose
--
The monkey turns the crank and thinks he's making the music.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

[Jake Brodsky]

Wizard of Draws wrote:
> Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
> Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
> to accidents. Is that true?

You can bend an airplane any time. All the 300 hour mark means is that
if you're going to bend an airplane now, it is slightly more likely that
your mistake will be due to your own stupidity than from inexperience.

Do not relax too much. Congratulations.

[Jack Allison[_1_]]

Wizard of Draws wrote:
> Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.

Congrats. on the 300 hr. milestone Jeff. It's always nice to see
another 100 hours accumulate in the logbook.


--
Jack Allison
PP-ASEL-Instrument Airplane
Arrow N2104T

"When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth
with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, and there
you will always long to return"
- Leonardo Da Vinci

(Remove the obvious from address to reply via e-mail)

[kontiki]

Wizard of Draws wrote:
> Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
> Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
> to accidents. Is that true?

Hey Jeff,

Congrats on passing the 300 hour mark. Actually 500 hours is one of those
milestones, but you are well on the way.

Hope thigns are going well up there in No. Georgia. Do you get to see Randall
much? Happy 4th!!!

Scott

[Wizard of Draws[_1_]]

On 7/4/06 5:41 PM, in article , "kontiki"
> wrote:

> Wizard of Draws wrote:
>> Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
>> Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
>> to accidents. Is that true?
>
> Hey Jeff,
>
> Congrats on passing the 300 hour mark. Actually 500 hours is one of those
> milestones, but you are well on the way.
>
> Hope thigns are going well up there in No. Georgia. Do you get to see Randall
> much? Happy 4th!!!
>
> Scott
>
Thanks Scott.
I haven't seen Randall since he closed up shop, but my safety pilot on
Sunday said he's seen him a few times at Lanierland concerts. Just hanging
out being retired. Karen still has a few students and 75E is still parked
there. The Arrow, 75J is sold, but still based there too.
Fly safe.

--
Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino

Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.wizardofdraws.com

More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
http://www.cartoonclipart.com

[Gene Seibel]

Nope. I bent something at 1300 and I bent something at 1800. You can
never relax.
--
Gene Seibel
Tales of Flight - http://pad39a.com/gene/tales.html
Because I fly, I envy no one.



Wizard of Draws wrote:
> Today's flight put me over 300 hours total time without bending anything.
> Someone here once wrote that that was a statistical milestone with regards
> to accidents. Is that true?
> --
> Jeff 'The Wizard of Draws' Bucchino
>
> Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
> http://www.wizardofdraws.com
>
> More Cartoons with a Touch of Magic�
> http://www.cartoonclipart.com

[Vic7]

Jim in NC wrote
[color=blue][i]


You can never tell when . . . someone will be out there flying VFR with a
stealth bug-smasher 2000, and no transponder! g
--
Jim in NC


Yep, that'd be me in the SB-S 2000 and no transponder (aka J-3 Cub or glider).

Controllers can be helpful, but remember there are some of us out there that are all but invisible to Center. I'll keep a lookout for you but I really need for you to be looking for me also.

Vic7