Price gap between 100LL and autogas

[M[_1_]]

Currently the price gap between 100LL and 87 unleaded, on a national
average basis, is approximately $1.50, give and take. That's quite a
bit higher than say 1997, I remember the gap was definitely below $1.

The total consumption of 100LL will continue to drop in the years to
come, caused by high end operators moving to turbine, and low end
operators reducing their hours due to escalating fuel prices. Logic
says that the price gap of 100LL and 87 unleaded will increase further,
because the special handling and transportation cost of 100LL fuel will
have to be amortized over a smaller amount of total 100LL sale.

I guess all the low compression engine flyers better get their autogas
STC and start lobbying their legislators for a stable supply of ethanol
free autofuel now.

Interesting sources:
http://www.airnav.com/fuel/report.html
http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/
http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/

[Dave S]

Low end operators usually can tolerate low octane, lead free fuels (80/8
7 Variety). 1/4 of the GA fleet used 3/4 of the 100LL - the high power
piston operators, usually piston twins..

Dave

M wrote:
> Currently the price gap between 100LL and 87 unleaded, on a national
> average basis, is approximately $1.50, give and take. That's quite a
> bit higher than say 1997, I remember the gap was definitely below $1.
>
> The total consumption of 100LL will continue to drop in the years to
> come, caused by high end operators moving to turbine, and low end
> operators reducing their hours due to escalating fuel prices. Logic
> says that the price gap of 100LL and 87 unleaded will increase further,
> because the special handling and transportation cost of 100LL fuel will
> have to be amortized over a smaller amount of total 100LL sale.
>
> I guess all the low compression engine flyers better get their autogas
> STC and start lobbying their legislators for a stable supply of ethanol
> free autofuel now.
>
> Interesting sources:
> http://www.airnav.com/fuel/report.html
> http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/
> http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/
>

[Newps]

M wrote:

>
> The total consumption of 100LL will continue to drop in the years to
> come, caused by high end operators moving to turbine, and low end
> operators reducing their hours due to escalating fuel prices.

Except the price of fuel is dropping.

[M[_1_]]

Just for this winter season. Not for the long term prognosis.

Newps wrote:
>
> Except the price of fuel is dropping.

[Newps]

We don't know that. All signs now point to lower fuel costs. Time will
tell.

M wrote:
> Just for this winter season. Not for the long term prognosis.
>
> Newps wrote:
>
>>Except the price of fuel is dropping.
>
>

[Jay Honeck]

> We don't know that. All signs now point to lower fuel costs. Time will
> tell.

Right now I'm paying $2.35 per gallon for mogas in Iowa City. It has
dropped $.36 per gallon since I last filled the Mighty Grape -- a truly
remarkable price change.

Avgas is still right around $4 per gallon, which makes this the biggest
price differential I've ever seen between Av- and mo-gas.

:-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

[[email protected]]

Local bulk 100LL price is 2.86 + tax. Say 3.25 or so. Cental
Illinois. Will sell in small lots picked up at the terminal

Bob

[Ross Richardson[_2_]]

Jay Honeck wrote:
>>We don't know that. All signs now point to lower fuel costs. Time will
>>tell.
>
>
> Right now I'm paying $2.35 per gallon for mogas in Iowa City. It has
> dropped $.36 per gallon since I last filled the Mighty Grape -- a truly
> remarkable price change.
>
> Avgas is still right around $4 per gallon, which makes this the biggest
> price differential I've ever seen between Av- and mo-gas.
>
> :-)
> --
> Jay Honeck
> Iowa City, IA
> Pathfinder N56993
> www.AlexisParkInn.com
> "Your Aviation Destination"
>
Ours last week dropped by $0.60/gal for 100LL. It is now $3.05/gal.

--

Regards, Ross
C-172F 180HP
KSWI

[.Blueskies.]

"Newps" > wrote in message . ..
:
:
: M wrote:
:
: >
: > The total consumption of 100LL will continue to drop in the years to
: > come, caused by high end operators moving to turbine, and low end
: > operators reducing their hours due to escalating fuel prices.
:
: Except the price of fuel is dropping.

During the election season...

[Ron Lee]

".Blueskies." > wrote:

>: Except the price of fuel is dropping.
>
>During the election season...
>

It almost always drops after Labor Day.

Ron Lee

[Gig 601XL Builder]

"Ron Lee" > wrote in message
...
> ".Blueskies." > wrote:
>
>>: Except the price of fuel is dropping.
>>
>>During the election season...
>>
>
> It almost always drops after Labor Day.
>
> Ron Lee
>

And things cooled down in Lebanon.

[Matt Barrow]

".Blueskies." > wrote in message
...
>
> "Newps" > wrote in message
> . ..
> :
> :
> : M wrote:
> :
> : >
> : > The total consumption of 100LL will continue to drop in the years to
> : > come, caused by high end operators moving to turbine, and low end
> : > operators reducing their hours due to escalating fuel prices.
> :
> : Except the price of fuel is dropping.
>
> During the election season...

During the last election, one main candidate said that we should be paying
$5 a gallon like others in the world. He also said that $2.50 was too much.
That brilliant, nuanced candidate must be math challenged!

And some others are totally bereft of knowledge of how markets work.

BTW, China is now up to almost 14% of the total world consumption of oil
even though they are only a bit over 3% of world GDP.

[Matt Barrow]

"Gig 601XL Builder" <wrDOTgiaconaATcox.net> wrote in message
...
>
> "Ron Lee" > wrote in message
> ...
>> ".Blueskies." > wrote:
>>
>>>: Except the price of fuel is dropping.
>>>
>>>During the election season...
>>>
>>
>> It almost always drops after Labor Day.
>>
>> Ron Lee
>>
>
> And things cooled down in Lebanon.
And storage capacity was full.

[Jose[_1_]]

> During the last election, one main candidate said that we should be paying
> $5 a gallon like others in the world. He also said that $2.50 was too much.
> That brilliant, nuanced candidate must be math challenged!

He must have the ansswer to terrorism. I've always maintained that the
solution is simple, given a number that is greater than six and less
than four.

Jose
--
There are more ways to skin a cat than there are cats.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

[Matt Barrow]

"Jay Honeck" > wrote in message
ups.com...
>> We don't know that. All signs now point to lower fuel costs. Time will
>> tell.
>
> Right now I'm paying $2.35 per gallon for mogas in Iowa City. It has
> dropped $.36 per gallon since I last filled the Mighty Grape -- a truly
> remarkable price change.
>
> Avgas is still right around $4 per gallon, which makes this the biggest
> price differential I've ever seen between Av- and mo-gas.
>
It takes FARRRR longer to deplete existing stores of 100LL, especially when
the price is high.

[Matt Barrow]

>> Currently the price gap between 100LL and 87 unleaded, on a national
>> average basis, is approximately $1.50, give and take. That's quite a
>> bit higher than say 1997, I remember the gap was definitely below $1.

About 30% then, and about 40% now as regulations governing transportation
and storage of unleaded fuels continue to exacerbate the ratio.

[LWG]

Unless the price is going UP. Then, there's a reason to raise the price on a
daily basis. Must be the shipments they're getting every day...

"Matt Barrow" > wrote in message
...
>
> "Jay Honeck" > wrote in message
> ups.com...
>>> We don't know that. All signs now point to lower fuel costs. Time will
>>> tell.
>>
>> Right now I'm paying $2.35 per gallon for mogas in Iowa City. It has
>> dropped $.36 per gallon since I last filled the Mighty Grape -- a truly
>> remarkable price change.
>>
>> Avgas is still right around $4 per gallon, which makes this the biggest
>> price differential I've ever seen between Av- and mo-gas.
>>
> It takes FARRRR longer to deplete existing stores of 100LL, especially
> when the price is high.
>

[M[_1_]]

Here're some interesting data of total 100LL production and import
(very close to total 100LL consumption because the inventory stock
should be relatively stable) from year 1999 to year 2004:

Year Avgas (thousand barrels)
1999 7485
2000 6648
2001 7121
2002 6584
2003 6255
2004 6295

source:
http://www.indexmundi.com/en/commodities/oil_gas/us_supply_monthly.htm

The data in 2005 isn't available, but it'll most likely be below 2004
because that's when the gas price really started to go up. I won't be
surprised to see 2005 total avgas consumption dip below 6M barrels.

And that's all in face of ever increasing (auto) gasoline production
and consumption in U.S.

The price gap between 100LL and 87 unleaded is going to go up a lot
more when Avgas becomes an increasingly exotic fuel.

M wrote:
> Currently the price gap between 100LL and 87 unleaded, on a national
> average basis, is approximately $1.50, give and take. That's quite a
> bit higher than say 1997, I remember the gap was definitely below $1.
>
> The total consumption of 100LL will continue to drop in the years to
> come, caused by high end operators moving to turbine, and low end
> operators reducing their hours due to escalating fuel prices. Logic
> says that the price gap of 100LL and 87 unleaded will increase further,
> because the special handling and transportation cost of 100LL fuel will
> have to be amortized over a smaller amount of total 100LL sale.
>
> I guess all the low compression engine flyers better get their autogas
> STC and start lobbying their legislators for a stable supply of ethanol
> free autofuel now.
>
> Interesting sources:
> http://www.airnav.com/fuel/report.html
> http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/
> http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/