Dreamliner Nears Production

[Jay Beckman]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15976637/

The most amazing part of this article (IMO) is that Boeing is figuring to
build each one in only three days!!! Wow...

Jay B

[Larry Dighera]

On Fri, 1 Dec 2006 00:10:27 -0700, "Jay Beckman" >
wrote in >:

>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15976637/
>
>The most amazing part of this article (IMO) is that Boeing is figuring to
>build each one in only three days!!! Wow...
>

A few quotes from the article:

they look toward the Dreamliner's first flight in August and the
first delivery to customers in 2008 ...

After all the parts arrive from around the world, workers will
assemble the planes in a hurry...

In a nod to the globalized economy, Boeing is taking a novel step
for the company and allowing outside contractors -- many of them
overseas -- to design and build 70 percent of the Dreamliner. The
wings will come from Japan. Huge parts of the aircraft's body will
arrive from Italy. Britain will deliver engines, and China will
contribute rudders. France is producing the landing gear...

The plane, which will seat 210 to 330 passengers will be made of
composite materials on a scale never before attempted on a
commercial aircraft. ...

Boeing says. The plane is being promoted as using about 20 percent
less fuel than the Boeing 767, which the Dreamliner will replace
on may routes.

Analysts say that Boeing made the right choice in building the
Dreamliner. It has racked up far more orders than the A380, which
has netted what analysts call a lackluster 149 orders and
commitments for 17 more. The analysts also question whether there
is enough growth in the super-jumbo market for Airbus ever to make
money on the plane...

[Kingfish]

Larry Dighera wrote:
> Analysts say that Boeing made the right choice in building the
> Dreamliner. It has racked up far more orders than the A380, which
> has netted what analysts call a lackluster 149 orders and
> commitments for 17 more. The analysts also question whether there
> is enough growth in the super-jumbo market for Airbus ever to make
> money on the plane...

Apples and oranges, of course as they are two completely different
category aircraft. Interestingly Boeing has revised its forecast of the
super-jumbo market upward. Their philosophy is still at odds (somewhat)
with Airbus' forecast, but the gap has closed a bit. The 747-8 is seen
as a less risky proposition than a clean-sheet design like the A380.

I read Airbus has revised its estimate saying its break-even figure has
gone from 250 aircraft to 400. Ouch. Their problem now is freeing up
the resources to develop the A350XWB to compete with 777, and in just a
few years the narrowbodies (A320, 737) will be redesigned. The A380
program delays have caused ripples that could affect other important
future development programs.

[Jose[_1_]]

> After all the parts arrive from around the world, workers will
> assemble the planes in a hurry...

I bet that phrase didn't get vetted by the marketing department!

Jose
--
"There are 3 secrets to the perfect landing. Unfortunately, nobody knows
what they are." - (mike).
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

[Kingfish]

Jose wrote:
> > After all the parts arrive from around the world, workers will
> > assemble the planes in a hurry...
>
> I bet that phrase didn't get vetted by the marketing department!
>

Or the union steward..

[Larry Dighera]

On 1 Dec 2006 07:43:16 -0800, "Kingfish" > wrote
in m>:

>I read Airbus has revised its estimate saying its break-even figure has
>gone from 250 aircraft to 400.

That is in the face of customers canceling orders due to the recent
two year delay in shipping schedule and the increase in fuel costs.

[Larry Dighera]

On Fri, 01 Dec 2006 16:02:49 GMT, Jose >
wrote in >:

>> After all the parts arrive from around the world, workers will
>> assemble the planes in a hurry...
>
>I bet that phrase didn't get vetted by the marketing department!

I'll bet you're right.

However, as much as I dislike seeing manufacturing moving off-shore,
it has indeed become a global economy after all, and although Boeing
is just another conniving corporate entity scheming to circumvent
domestic laws and union wages, this is the future. We have no choice
but to embrace it.

[Jose[_1_]]

> I dislike seeing manufacturing moving off-shore

It's not the offshore part. It's the "assmeble the planes in a hurry"
part that got me. Wanna fly a plane that was put together "in a hurry"?

Jose
--
"There are 3 secrets to the perfect landing. Unfortunately, nobody knows
what they are." - (mike).
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

[Kingfish]

Larry Dighera wrote:
>
> >I read Airbus has revised its estimate saying its break-even figure has
> >gone from 250 aircraft to 400.
>
> That is in the face of customers canceling orders due to the recent
> two year delay in shipping schedule and the increase in fuel costs.

Not sure how fuel costs affect the airframer, I think Airbus' increased
costs have more to do with contract penalties for not delivering on
time and some extensive redesign work on certain A380 systems. So far
the only cancellation I've read about is FedEx dropping their 10-plane
order and buying B-777 freighters instead.

[john smith]

In article om>,
"Kingfish" > wrote:

> Not sure how fuel costs affect the airframer, I think Airbus' increased
> costs have more to do with contract penalties for not delivering on
> time and some extensive redesign work on certain A380 systems. So far
> the only cancellation I've read about is FedEx dropping their 10-plane
> order and buying B-777 freighters instead.

Airbus paid the lead customer $104 million in delay penalties this week.

[Morgans[_2_]]

"Larry Dighera" > wrote

> In a nod to the globalized economy, Boeing is taking a novel step
> for the company and allowing outside contractors -- many of them
> overseas -- to design and build 70 percent of the Dreamliner. The
> wings will come from Japan. Huge parts of the aircraft's body will
> arrive from Italy. Britain will deliver engines, and China will
> contribute rudders. France is producing the landing gear...

It is fitting, that France is building the landing gear. Seems like their
latest project can't quite get off the ground....
;-)
--
Jim in NC

[[email protected]]

Airbus sank themselves, the market for planes of that superjumbo size
was small to begin with (they were saying something like 800 aircraft
over a 20 year period). Used 743s and 744s out there are capable of
filling most of the market for large aircraft (they will "trickle down"
to "smaller airlines", like Kalitta Air or regional operaters, notably
throughout SE Asia that will have a need for aircraft of that size in
teh future), the A380 was targeted exclusivley at large airlines that
could afford that initial $300M investment, because Boeing came along
with the 772LR, 748, 787 and 777F they are able to offer (albeit
smaller) four aircraft that can be tailored to a particular airlines
desires, all of which fly on equal or superior technology to the Airbus
and all of which come from a company that has consistently delivered on
time, one of the major things killing Airbus right now.

Also if you look at the A350, it's essentially a 777 with GEnx engines,
except it's coming in a mere 18 years after the 777 did)

Then if you look at the other reality that Boeing right now (with the
787) is bringing in the next generation of commercial aircraft, while
the A380 is technically a very advanced part of the last generation,
that is Bleed-air systems, the 787 is all electric, that is the "wave
of the future", expect to see Bleed-air on the A350, expect to see all
electric on the Y1 and Y3 projects from Boeing.

Also... the claim is that the A380 can hold 800 passengers in all
economy layout, but all orders so far call for 550 capacities or lower
(I believe), there are several 77x's out there (one for a Japanese
carrier) that fly with 550 passengers as well, but in all economy
layout.

So, I guess the simplest way of saying it (now that I've wasted a whole
page) is that with the A380 Airbus put all their eggs in one basket,
Boeing released 3 reworked/re-engineered designs and one new one, along
with development on 2 more expected within the decade, they diversified
and split Airbus's potential market base. Furthermore the A380 was
supposed to be in service right now with Emirates and Singapore, but
now it looks like the 787 might barely beat the A380 to service (mind
you they haven't even built a single 787 yet).
Morgans wrote:
> "Larry Dighera" > wrote
>
> > In a nod to the globalized economy, Boeing is taking a novel step
> > for the company and allowing outside contractors -- many of them
> > overseas -- to design and build 70 percent of the Dreamliner. The
> > wings will come from Japan. Huge parts of the aircraft's body will
> > arrive from Italy. Britain will deliver engines, and China will
> > contribute rudders. France is producing the landing gear...
>
> It is fitting, that France is building the landing gear. Seems like their
> latest project can't quite get off the ground....
> ;-)
> --
> Jim in NC

[Kingfish]

wrote:
> Also if you look at the A350, it's essentially a 777 with GEnx engines,
> except it's coming in a mere 18 years after the 777 did)

Ha! Don't tell Airbus that <smirk>


> So, I guess the simplest way of saying it (now that I've wasted a whole
> page) is that with the A380 Airbus put all their eggs in one basket,
> Boeing released 3 reworked/re-engineered designs and one new one, along
> with development on 2 more expected within the decade, they diversified
> and split Airbus's potential market base.

Airbus sees the market differently than Boeing. They did definitely tie
up huge resources on the A380 program which will affect the A350XWB and
next-gen A320 redesign. They can't afford to lose out on the narrowbody
market. 747-8 is seen as being less risky than a clean sheet design.

> Furthermore the A380 was supposed to be in service right now with Emirates and Singapore, > but now it looks like the 787 might barely beat the A380 to service (mind
> you they haven't even built a single 787 yet).

Last I read, Singapore Airlines is schedule to get an A380 (one) in 4Q
2007 with 25 or so more to be delivered in '08.

[[email protected]]

>Last I read, Singapore Airlines is schedule to get an A380 (one) in 4Q
> 2007 with 25 or so more to be delivered in '08.

Shoot... when I read about the A380 a year ago Singapore Airlines was
supposed to have one 2 months ago... but here we are, I'm sensing
another delay in the "force".

[Gig 601XL Builder]

"Kingfish" > wrote in message
oups.com...

> Last I read, Singapore Airlines is schedule to get an A380 (one) in 4Q
> 2007 with 25 or so more to be delivered in '08.
>

What you want to bet that they don't get it in '07?

[Bob Noel]

In article >,
"Gig 601XL Builder" <wrDOTgiaconaATcox.net> wrote:

> > Last I read, Singapore Airlines is schedule to get an A380 (one) in 4Q
> > 2007 with 25 or so more to be delivered in '08.
>
> What you want to bet that they don't get it in '07?

what odds will you give?

--
Bob Noel
Looking for a sig the
lawyers will hate

[Kingfish]

Gig 601XL Builder wrote:
> "Kingfish" > wrote in message
> oups.com...
>
> > Last I read, Singapore Airlines is schedule to get an A380 (one) in 4Q
> > 2007 with 25 or so more to be delivered in '08.
> >
>
> What you want to bet that they don't get it in '07?

I figger they'll get it done in time. Of course if it's late again
it'll probably be free. Reference John Smith's post about Airbus paying
$104M in penalties to the 380's first customer (SIA) I can't imagine
what the penalties would be for missing the 4Q '07 deadline.

[Chris W]

Kingfish wrote:

>
> Apples and oranges, of course as they are two completely different
> category aircraft.

Isn't that the whole point? Airbus made apples and the customers wanted
oranges.


--
Chris W
KE5GIX

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[Gig 601XL Builder]

"Bob Noel" > wrote in message
...
> In article >,
> "Gig 601XL Builder" <wrDOTgiaconaATcox.net> wrote:
>
>> > Last I read, Singapore Airlines is schedule to get an A380 (one) in 4Q
>> > 2007 with 25 or so more to be delivered in '08.
>>
>> What you want to bet that they don't get it in '07?
>
> what odds will you give?
>


4:1 against.

[Kingfish]

Chris W wrote:
> >
> > Apples and oranges, of course as they are two completely different
> > category aircraft.
>
> Isn't that the whole point? Airbus made apples and the customers wanted
> oranges.

I don't think that's quite accurate, it's not as if *no* airline bought
A380s; that aircraft just seems better suited for high density routes
in Asia. Boeing's sales success with 787 means (to me) their point 2
point strategy works better for more airlines than the Uberjet. When
the U.S. airlines start replacing their fleets, my guess is many will
go with 787. The A350 just got the go ahead for development/production
& hopefully that program will have better luck sticking with its
schedule. Then there's the A320 redesign for 2012-2013 - Airbus can't
afford to flub that one as the narrowbodies are the biggest selling
segment in transports.

[Matt Barrow]

"Gig 601XL Builder" <wrDOTgiaconaATcox.net> wrote in message
...
>
>>> > Last I read, Singapore Airlines is schedule to get an A380 (one) in 4Q
>>> > 2007 with 25 or so more to be delivered in '08.
>>>
>>> What you want to bet that they don't get it in '07?
>>
>> what odds will you give?
>>
>
>
> 4:1 against.

Dollar limit?

[Bob Noel]

In article >,
"Gig 601XL Builder" <wrDOTgiaconaATcox.net> wrote:

> >> What you want to bet that they don't get it in '07?
> >
> > what odds will you give?
>
> 4:1 against.

Not high for me... :-)

--
Bob Noel
Looking for a sig the
lawyers will hate

[john smith]

>
>
>>>Apples and oranges, of course as they are two completely different
>>>category aircraft.
>>>
>>>
>>Isn't that the whole point? Airbus made apples and the customers wanted
>>oranges.
>>
>>
>
>I don't think that's quite accurate, it's not as if *no* airline bought
>A380s; that aircraft just seems better suited for high density routes
>in Asia. Boeing's sales success with 787 means (to me) their point 2
>point strategy works better for more airlines than the Uberjet. When
>the U.S. airlines start replacing their fleets, my guess is many will
>go with 787. The A350 just got the go ahead for development/production
>& hopefully that program will have better luck sticking with its
>schedule. Then there's the A320 redesign for 2012-2013 - Airbus can't
>afford to flub that one as the narrowbodies are the biggest selling
>segment in transports.
>

WSJ(?) had a very good graphic depicting range of the A380. I now
understand why Emirates is such a good customer of long haul equipment.
With an 8000 nm range, they can cover 80-90% of the eastern hemisphere.
Similarly, Singapore can cover half the eastern hemisphere and the west
coasts of North and South America.