GA piston flying down almost 50% since 2000

[[email protected]]

> > Just look at the drops of avgas consumption:

> >http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm

> Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful.

> I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military
> aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas
> -- not any more...

> If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead.
> --
> Jay Honeck
> Iowa City, IA
> Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com
> "Your Aviation Destination"

Jay,

Wow, from 1990 to 2000 the consumption dropped by only 20%. From
2000
to 2006 it dropped by 47% (nearly cut in half). Note the big drop in
2004 when lots of layoffs were occuring in high tech...

By comparison, Jet-A has been pretty stable, and the growth in Jet-A
doesn't appear to making up for the drop in 100LL, and in fact Jet-A
use has declined in the past 4 years when the drop in 100LL was
substantial. I'd say this is strong evidence that piston flying
hours
are way down...

Boy, those user fees are really going to help fund the airspace
system
with all that GA traffic out there! (not)

Dean

[[email protected]]

On Jun 5, 3:15 pm, wrote:
> > > Just look at the drops of avgas consumption:
> > >http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm
> > Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful.
> > I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military
> > aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas
> > -- not any more...
> > If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead.
> > --
> > Jay Honeck
> > Iowa City, IA
> > Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com
> > "Your Aviation Destination"
>
> Jay,
>
> Wow, from 1990 to 2000 the consumption dropped by only 20%. From
> 2000
> to 2006 it dropped by 47% (nearly cut in half). Note the big drop in
> 2004 when lots of layoffs were occuring in high tech...
>
> By comparison, Jet-A has been pretty stable, and the growth in Jet-A
> doesn't appear to making up for the drop in 100LL, and in fact Jet-A
> use has declined in the past 4 years when the drop in 100LL was
> substantial. I'd say this is strong evidence that piston flying
> hours
> are way down...
>
> Boy, those user fees are really going to help fund the airspace
> system
> with all that GA traffic out there! (not)
>
> Dean

I was just scheduling one of the club airplanes that I fly, and I was
surprised to see how few reservations there were in the system. The
Archer I am flying this Saturday was wide open for the entire weekend,
and I am the only person flying it since last Tuesday! It used to be
that there were at least 4 flights a weekend scheduled for each of the
Archers. I checked the schedules for all the planes, and the activity
level is WAY down on all the planes from what it typically has been as
recently as a year ago...

I guess the higher rates from higher fuel prices are having a big
effect.

[RST Engineering]

I just did a spreadsheet with a prediction routine based on linear
regression. If the numbers hold true, we will be out of the GA business
around 2015, plus or minus one year.

Jim



--
There are only 10 kinds of people in the world.
Those who count in binary and those who don't
> wrote in message
ups.com...
> On Jun 5, 3:15 pm, wrote:
>> > > Just look at the drops of avgas consumption:
>> > >http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm
>> > Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful.
>> > I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military
>> > aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas
>> > -- not any more...
>> > If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead.
>> > --
>> > Jay Honeck
>> > Iowa City, IA
>> > Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com
>> > "Your Aviation Destination"

[Tony[_3_]]

It's not likely it's a linear relationship, Jim. probably some e^(-kt)
would provide a closer model.


Yours would predict negative GA, in 2020, wouldn't it?

Some nits need picking!


On Jun 6, 6:07 pm, "RST Engineering" > wrote:
> I just did a spreadsheet with a prediction routine based on linear
> regression. If the numbers hold true, we will be out of the GA business
> around 2015, plus or minus one year.
>
> Jim
>
> --
> There are only 10 kinds of people in the world.
> Those who count in binary and those who > wrote in message
>
> ups.com...
>
>
>
> > On Jun 5, 3:15 pm, wrote:
> >> > > Just look at the drops of avgas consumption:
> >> > >http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm
> >> > Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful.
> >> > I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military
> >> > aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas
> >> > -- not any more...
> >> > If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead.
> >> > --
> >> > Jay Honeck
> >> > Iowa City, IA
> >> > Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com
> >> > "Your Aviation Destination"- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

[Montblack]

Which symbol in your equation represents (+ -) changing political winds?


Montblack


("Tony" wrote)
> It's not likely it's a linear relationship, Jim. probably some e^(-kt)
> would provide a closer model.
>
> Yours would predict negative GA, in 2020, wouldn't it?
>
> Some nits need picking!

[RST Engineering]

Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the spreadsheets will
be posted to www.rstengineering.com/photos in fifteen minutes. Take a look
at the straightness of the line since 1990.

Jim

--
There are only 10 kinds of people in the world.
Those who count in binary and those who don't
"Tony" > wrote in message
ups.com...
> It's not likely it's a linear relationship, Jim. probably some e^(-kt)
> would provide a closer model.
>
>
> Yours would predict negative GA, in 2020, wouldn't it?
>
> Some nits need picking!
>
>
> On Jun 6, 6:07 pm, "RST Engineering" > wrote:
>> I just did a spreadsheet with a prediction routine based on linear
>> regression. If the numbers hold true, we will be out of the GA business
>> around 2015, plus or minus one year.
>>
>> Jim
>>
>> --
>> There are only 10 kinds of people in the world.
>> Those who count in binary and those who > wrote in
>> message
>>
>> ups.com...
>>
>>
>>
>> > On Jun 5, 3:15 pm, wrote:
>> >> > > Just look at the drops of avgas consumption:
>> >> > >http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm
>> >> > Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful.
>> >> > I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military
>> >> > aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas
>> >> > -- not any more...
>> >> > If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead.
>> >> > --
>> >> > Jay Honeck
>> >> > Iowa City, IA
>> >> > Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com
>> >> > "Your Aviation Destination"- Hide quoted text -
>>
>> - Show quoted text -
>
>

[Tony[_3_]]

Negative GA in 2020. QED

On Jun 6, 6:45 pm, "RST Engineering" > wrote:
> Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the spreadsheets will
> be posted towww.rstengineering.com/photosin fifteen minutes. Take a look
> at the straightness of the line since 1990.
>
> Jim
>
> --
> There are only 10 kinds of people in the world.
> Those who count in binary and those who don't"Tony" > wrote in message
>
> ups.com...
>
>
>
> > It's not likely it's a linear relationship, Jim. probably some e^(-kt)
> > would provide a closer model.
>
> > Yours would predict negative GA, in 2020, wouldn't it?
>
> > Some nits need picking!
>
> > On Jun 6, 6:07 pm, "RST Engineering" > wrote:
> >> I just did a spreadsheet with a prediction routine based on linear
> >> regression. If the numbers hold true, we will be out of the GA business
> >> around 2015, plus or minus one year.
>
> >> Jim
>
> >> --
> >> There are only 10 kinds of people in the world.
> >> Those who count in binary and those who > wrote in
> >> message
>
> ups.com...
>
> >> > On Jun 5, 3:15 pm, wrote:
> >> >> > > Just look at the drops of avgas consumption:
> >> >> > >http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm
> >> >> > Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful.
> >> >> > I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military
> >> >> > aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas
> >> >> > -- not any more...
> >> >> > If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead.
> >> >> > --
> >> >> > Jay Honeck
> >> >> > Iowa City, IA
> >> >> > Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com
> >> >> > "Your Aviation Destination"- Hide quoted text -
>
> >> - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

[Dave J]

On Jun 6, 3:45 pm, "RST Engineering" > wrote:
> Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the spreadsheets will
> be posted towww.rstengineering.com/photosin fifteen minutes. Take a look
> at the straightness of the line since 1990.
>
> Jim

Jim,

I agree that it looks pretty linear, which is scary. Actually, the R^2
for the linear fit was 0.80, but it was 0.88 for a log fit, so the
exponential is actually a better match. But, functional form aside,
the real nit to pick is trying to predict the future of GA with just
one variable.

Nevertheless, no matter how you interpret the graph, it does certainly
paint a dire picture for GA. :(

-- dave j

[Gig 601XL Builder]

RST Engineering wrote:
> Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the
> spreadsheets will be posted to www.rstengineering.com/photos in
> fifteen minutes. Take a look at the straightness of the line since
> 1990.
> Jim

If you did the same with the data from 83 to 87 it would have been at zero
in 91 or 92 and that was a much straighter line. No doubt GA is in trouble.
What are we going to do about it?

[RST Engineering]

The reason I did sheet/graph 3 was that prior to 1990, you still had a
goodly portion of the GA fleet burning piston juice. Just about this time,
the folks who were flying "for real" and sucking most of the gas (i.e.
corporate, air taxi, freight...) converted to the more efficient turbine
juice. I know that is when the local firebombers converted from the S2F
with the Pratt&Scat round piston engines to the S2T Garrett?? turboprop and
the spotters converted from the Skymasters to the OV-2. That in and of
itself cut GOO's piston juice usage in half.

It was purely an arbitrary decision but one based on reality.

Jim

--
"Work like you don't need the money, love like you've never been hurt, and
dance like no one is watching."
--Satchel Paige
"Gig 601XL Builder" <wrDOTgiaconaATsuddenlink.net> wrote in message
...
> RST Engineering wrote:
>> Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the
>> spreadsheets will be posted to www.rstengineering.com/photos in
>> fifteen minutes. Take a look at the straightness of the line since
>> 1990.
>> Jim
>
> If you did the same with the data from 83 to 87 it would have been at zero
> in 91 or 92 and that was a much straighter line. No doubt GA is in
> trouble. What are we going to do about it?
>

[Ron Lee[_2_]]

I looked at the Gasuse.xls charts and generally agree with it except
that I would not use year-to-date 2007 numbers since it is not a full
year (does not include summer flying months).

That may not affect the overall trend.

Plus It should bottom out above zero. I fly about 250 hours a year
and am not likely to drop to zero. The same applies to many RV pilots
as far as not going to zero.

That is a helpful chart. Thanks

Ron Lee

[[email protected]]

On Jun 7, 8:48 am, "RST Engineering" > wrote:
> The reason I did sheet/graph 3 was that prior to 1990, you still had a
> goodly portion of the GA fleet burning piston juice. Just about this time,
> the folks who were flying "for real" and sucking most of the gas (i.e.
> corporate, air taxi, freight...) converted to the more efficient turbine
> juice. I know that is when the local firebombers converted from the S2F
> with the Pratt&Scat round piston engines to the S2T Garrett?? turboprop and
> the spotters converted from the Skymasters to the OV-2. That in and of
> itself cut GOO's piston juice usage in half.
>
> It was purely an arbitrary decision but one based on reality.
>
> Jim
>
> --
> "Work like you don't need the money, love like you've never been hurt, and
> dance like no one is watching."
> --Satchel Paige
> "Gig 601XL Builder" <wrDOTgiaconaATsuddenlink.net> wrote in ...
>
>
>
> > RST Engineering wrote:
> >> Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the
> >> spreadsheets will be posted towww.rstengineering.com/photosin
> >> fifteen minutes. Take a look at the straightness of the line since
> >> 1990.
> >> Jim
>
> > If you did the same with the data from 83 to 87 it would have been at zero
> > in 91 or 92 and that was a much straighter line. No doubt GA is in
> > trouble. What are we going to do about it?- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

So, it still begs the question of why the dropoff since 2000?
Economics? Fear of TFRs? Loss of older pilots? All of the above?

[Ron Lee[_2_]]

My bad. Looking at Sheet 1 your last data point was 2006. You
already used proper data analysis.

Ron Lee

>I looked at the Gasuse.xls charts and generally agree with it except
>that I would not use year-to-date 2007 numbers since it is not a full
>year (does not include summer flying months).

[Morgans[_2_]]

> wrote

> So, it still begs the question of why the dropoff since 2000?
> Economics? Fear of TFRs? Loss of older pilots? All of the above?

There are companies in business, all over the place, continuously converting
piston airplanes into turbine airplanes.

Most of them are big, thirsty piston engines, that will not be drinking
avgas any more.

How many piston singles would that represent, in equivalent gas consumption?
Dozens? Hundreds? Perhaps.

Add to that, the obvious slow decline of private pilots, and hours flown,
then kick in rising fuel costs, and it is starting to look like nails in the
coffin.
--
Jim in NC

[Matt Barrow[_4_]]

"Gig 601XL Builder" <wrDOTgiaconaATsuddenlink.net> wrote in message
...
> RST Engineering wrote:
>> Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the
>> spreadsheets will be posted to www.rstengineering.com/photos in
>> fifteen minutes. Take a look at the straightness of the line since
>> 1990.
>> Jim
>
> If you did the same with the data from 83 to 87 it would have been at zero
> in 91 or 92 and that was a much straighter line. No doubt GA is in
> trouble. What are we going to do about it?
Talk.

[gatt]

"Matt Barrow" > wrote in message
...

>> If you did the same with the data from 83 to 87 it would have been at
>> zero in 91 or 92 and that was a much straighter line. No doubt GA is in
>> trouble. What are we going to do about it?

> Talk.

1) Would relaxing Part 135 restrictions help?
2) Would it be worth the resultant risk?



-c

[Gig 601XL Builder]

gatt wrote:
> "Matt Barrow" > wrote in message
> ...
>
>>> If you did the same with the data from 83 to 87 it would have been
>>> at zero in 91 or 92 and that was a much straighter line. No doubt
>>> GA is in trouble. What are we going to do about it?
>
>> Talk.
>
> 1) Would relaxing Part 135 restrictions help?
> 2) Would it be worth the resultant risk?
>
>
>

Probably not x 2.

I didn't see Matt's original reply until this message but that actually is
the answer. People are spending lots of money on recreational activities.
Some how aviation needs to get a bigger piece of that pie.

[gatt]

"Gig 601XL Builder" <wrDOTgiaconaATsuddenlink.net> wrote in message
...

> I didn't see Matt's original reply until this message but that actually is
> the answer. People are spending lots of money on recreational activities.

People who have lots of disposable income are spending lots of money on
recreational activities. Meanwhile, industries are slowly bleeding to
death.
Why won't anybody address that?


"The impact on our transportation industry has far reaching consequences.
The American Trucking Association already ".deeply concerned about the
impact of diesel price increases on the motor carrier industry and on our
national economy.", offers tips for saving on fuel as well as naming truck
stops providing the cheapest fuels, etc."
http://www.articlegold.com/Article/Consumers-and-Transportation-Industry-Finding-Relief-for-Fuel-Costs/94

"According to the National Voice for the Marine Charter Industry, fuel
prices are "cutting into the 'already slim profit margins' of the nation's
40,000 charter boat operators.." IBID

"Jet fuel prices have risen about 15 percent in the past two weeks, taking
back more than half of a six-week decline after they hit their highest
levels ever. Some experts believe jet fuel prices - linked to crude oil -
will go higher as the year goes on. Fuel is typically the second-biggest
expense behind labor for an airline, and the year's inflation has seriously
dented the prospects of the large U.S. carriers, trying to recover from four
years of huge losses. As a result, airlines have been raising fares enough
to help offset the higher costs. Big carriers have raised fares nine times
this year, including a $5-$10 increase this week for one-way trips.
Industrywide, leisure travelers are seeing the largest fare increases,
according to Fulcrum Global Partners. In recent weeks, leisure fares have
been about 30 percent to 40 percent higher than year-ago levels, while
business fares have been down by about one-third. Heavy losses are expected
to continue this year, projected at more than $5.5 billion for the year by
Calyon Securities. "
http://www.tia.org/express/transportation_hotissues.html

"The Australian Trucking Association says businesses should be prepared for
rising freight costs, as petrochemical industry insiders warn the price of
fuel could again be on the rise.
Association chairman Ross Fraser, from Fraser's Livestock Transport in
Warwick, says fuel bills at his company have increased by 30 per cent in the
last 10 months." http://www.abc.net.au/southqld/stories/s1465827.htm


"Single mom Esther Guzman is used to juggling her family finances. But
lately, it's gotten harder to make ends meet.The 38-year-old mother of
four's monthly gasoline bill has jumped to more than $300. Guzman, of
Monmouth Junction, N.J., makes $11 an hour helping others apply for
low-income energy aid, and receives $400 a month in child support. "
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2007-06-04-gasoline-low-income-usat_N.htm





>

[[email protected]]

I'll wager that the actual 2014 number will be higher than either of
your two predictions? Would you take that bet?



On Jun 6, 6:45 pm, "RST Engineering" > wrote:
> Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the spreadsheets will
> be posted towww.rstengineering.com/photosin fifteen minutes. Take a look
> at the straightness of the line since 1990.
>
> Jim