How many pilots, ever?

[Jay Honeck]

I've been trying to come up with some numbers that will impress upon
my son the stark rarity and unique nature of his accomplishment as a
new Private Pilot.

In short, I thought it would be neat to figure out how many pilots
have EVER flown, since 1903. It's easy to get the number of US pilots
year-by-year, but (of course) these include duplicates over time.
Therefore, I'm stumped.

Any ideas how to tabulate this figure?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

[Jose]

> I've been trying to come up with some numbers that will impress upon
> my son the stark rarity and unique nature of his accomplishment as a
> new Private Pilot.

Why? It will be far more meaningful to him if he discovers it himself,
a few years down the road.

Jose
--
You can choose whom to befriend, but you cannot choose whom to love.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

[Jim Logajan]

Jay Honeck > wrote:
> In short, I thought it would be neat to figure out how many pilots
> have EVER flown, since 1903. It's easy to get the number of US pilots
> year-by-year, but (of course) these include duplicates over time.
> Therefore, I'm stumped.
>
> Any ideas how to tabulate this figure?

Not a clue about worldwide, but for the U.S. one can make a "reasonable"
estimate based on FAA stats at this link:

http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/2006/

Table 17 in particular seems to suggest that, excluding student pilot
certificates, ~25,000 private certificates were issued each year for the
last 10 years. I'd use that amount as an average and multiply it by ~60
to get on the order of at least ~1.5 million private pilot certificates
ever issued in the U.S.

Just my attempt at a swag.

[[email protected]]

> I've been trying to come up with some numbers that will impress upon
> my son the stark rarity and unique nature of his accomplishment as a
> new Private Pilot.
>

No doubt pilots are few but the small number of pilots isn't such a
big deal. What matters is how many out of those actively seeking pilot
training actually go on to become pilots. That is a far better
indicator of the difficulty involved in becoming a pilot than just the
total number of pilots. The very few private pilots in existence would
be very impressive if everybody in the US had a goal to get a PPL (and
most failed) which is not the case. From what I can tell, those that
show a little bit of inclination to weather the odds do indeed go on
to get their PPLs.

[BT]

the key is to equate that number of completed private pilots against those
that held a student certificate
and then to key in on the number of pilots who earned their first rating
under the age of 18
and compare those numbers to the US or world wide population..

BT

"Jim Logajan" > wrote in message
.. .
> Jay Honeck > wrote:
>> In short, I thought it would be neat to figure out how many pilots
>> have EVER flown, since 1903. It's easy to get the number of US pilots
>> year-by-year, but (of course) these include duplicates over time.
>> Therefore, I'm stumped.
>>
>> Any ideas how to tabulate this figure?
>
> Not a clue about worldwide, but for the U.S. one can make a "reasonable"
> estimate based on FAA stats at this link:
>
> http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/2006/
>
> Table 17 in particular seems to suggest that, excluding student pilot
> certificates, ~25,000 private certificates were issued each year for the
> last 10 years. I'd use that amount as an average and multiply it by ~60
> to get on the order of at least ~1.5 million private pilot certificates
> ever issued in the U.S.
>
> Just my attempt at a swag.

[Bertie the Bunyip[_19_]]

Jay Honeck > wrote in news:2599f35e-bf7f-489d-8912-
:

> I've been trying to come up with some numbers that will impress upon
> my son the stark rarity and unique nature of his accomplishment as a
> new Private Pilot.
>
> In short, I thought it would be neat to figure out how many pilots
> have EVER flown, since 1903. It's easy to get the number of US pilots
> year-by-year, but (of course) these include duplicates over time.
> Therefore, I'm stumped.
>
> Any ideas how to tabulate this figure?


Don't you have guests to look after?



Bertie

[Tom Conner]

> wrote in message
...
> > I've been trying to come up with some numbers that will impress upon
> > my son the stark rarity and unique nature of his accomplishment as a
> > new Private Pilot.
> >
>
> No doubt pilots are few but the small number of pilots isn't such a
> big deal. What matters is how many out of those actively seeking pilot
> training actually go on to become pilots. That is a far better
> indicator of the difficulty involved in becoming a pilot than just the
> total number of pilots. The very few private pilots in existence would
> be very impressive if everybody in the US had a goal to get a PPL (and
> most failed) which is not the case. From what I can tell, those that
> show a little bit of inclination to weather the odds do indeed go on
> to get their PPLs.

No stats to support this, but I seem to remember reading here in the past
that out of all the individuals who get a student license, 90% drop out.
Out of those that get the PPL, 90% stop flying after 5 years.

[Jay Honeck]

> Why? It will be far more meaningful to him if he discovers it himself,
> a few years down the road.

Time will give him that perspective. What I want to know (and I think
would be cool to know, just for ****s and giggles) is:

- How many pilots have ever been certificated

- How many billions of humans have *ever* lived.

Since man has longed to fly since time immemorial, and only a
miniscule percentage of humans have ever achieved it, I think this
would be a very cool statistic to know. Your mileage may vary.

Sadly, I haven't found a very good way to measure either number.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

[Jim Macklin]

Just to say, since 1903, maybe 4 or 5 million people worldwide have learned
how to fly. Maybe 3 million are still alive today. World populations is 5
billion, so a pilot is less than 1 of a thousand.




"Jay Honeck" > wrote in message
...
|> Why? It will be far more meaningful to him if he discovers it himself,
| > a few years down the road.
|
| Time will give him that perspective. What I want to know (and I think
| would be cool to know, just for ****s and giggles) is:
|
| - How many pilots have ever been certificated
|
| - How many billions of humans have *ever* lived.
|
| Since man has longed to fly since time immemorial, and only a
| miniscule percentage of humans have ever achieved it, I think this
| would be a very cool statistic to know. Your mileage may vary.
|
| Sadly, I haven't found a very good way to measure either number.
| --
| Jay Honeck
| Iowa City, IA
| Pathfinder N56993
| www.AlexisParkInn.com
| "Your Aviation Destination"

[Judah]

Jay Honeck > wrote in news:552fff1f-c400-4a6d-ad11-
:

>> Why? It will be far more meaningful to him if he discovers it himself,
>> a few years down the road.
>
> Time will give him that perspective. What I want to know (and I think
> would be cool to know, just for ****s and giggles) is:
>
> - How many pilots have ever been certificated
>
> - How many billions of humans have *ever* lived.
>
> Since man has longed to fly since time immemorial, and only a
> miniscule percentage of humans have ever achieved it, I think this
> would be a very cool statistic to know. Your mileage may vary.
>
> Sadly, I haven't found a very good way to measure either number.

I'm not sure you can get how many billions of humans have ever lived, but
you should be able to get annual new birth record counts since 1903 when
Orville & Wilber started this whole thing in the US... It might be equally
as interesting to compare to the number of humans who had the opportunity
to learn to fly... You might want to go back to 1884 or something (kids
born in 1889 would have been 17 in 1903)...

I can't tell you where to get those records, but I know I have seen
statistics of total new births "this year" in news stories etc... The
numbers must be out there in some census recording or something...

[[email protected]]

>
> No stats to support this, but I seem to remember reading here in the past
> that out of all the individuals who get a student license, 90% drop out.
> Out of those that get the PPL, 90% stop flying after 5 years.

I remember reading that too, I guess its possible. If 200,000 got
their PPLs this year in the US, then it would mean there were about 2
million student pilots, not outside the realms of plausibility.
I think there was another stat about how some pilots never flew again
after passing their checkrides.

[[email protected]]

>
> So what your talking about is the standard loser's excuse "I could do it
> if I wanted to, but I just don't want to".

Not exactly, for e.g., I don't go skydiving even though I am pretty
confident I could learn to skydive if I wanted to but I am just not
interested. Likewise there are lots of people who are not losers and
who don't want to be pilots.

[Jay Honeck]

> Just to say, since 1903, maybe 4 or 5 million people worldwide have learned
> how to fly.

How did you come to that number, Jim?

> Maybe 3 million are still alive today. World populations is 5
> billion, so a pilot is less than 1 of a thousand.

And if you figure all the humans who have *ever* lived (and yearned to
fly), pilots are an incredibly tiny percentage. We truly are lucky
to be alive today!
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

[Jay Honeck]

> I'm not sure you can get how many billions of humans have ever lived, but
> you should be able to get annual new birth record counts since 1903 when
> Orville & Wilber started this whole thing in the US... It might be equally
> as interesting to compare to the number of humans who had the opportunity
> to learn to fly... You might want to go back to 1884 or something (kids
> born in 1889 would have been 17 in 1903)...

Ha -- found it! Ain't the internet grand?

See:
http://www.prb.org/Articles/2002/HowManyPeopleHaveEverLivedonEarth.aspx

Looks like (using these numbers, through 2002) the best estimate is
that 106 billion humans have ever lived on this planet.

If we use Jim Macklin's (unverified) estimate of 5 million pilots who
have ever lived, we can see that the number of people in history to
have achieved the ability to fly is something around .0047%, or 1 in
21,200 people...

Humans tried to fly for over 50,000 years, only figuring it out 104
years ago. In other words, for 99.8% of our history, we tried -- and
failed -- to fly. The knowledge is now available to anyone on the
planet for the cost of a used Chevy Lumina.

That, my friends, is what we call "progress"...

;-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

[Jules]

I don't feel learning to fly is a big deal. Not many do it, perhaps
because of the expense, or it just isn't mainstream.

Harder to do, and to me is a bigger deal, yet is very common; get a good
university education.

It makes me remember the old joke, "How can you tell if there is a pilot
in the room.....Don't worry he will tell you."

It is a big accomplishment for anybody to do. Jay is justifiably proud.

I have seen many 16 and 17 year olds learn to fly. Males, and females
alike. Always funny seeing parents drive their child in for a lesson
like a solo cross country. But they aren't allowed to drive yet.

I suppose there is a mystique to it, but I never entered a Formula One
race either. It is an accomplishment but I hope there will be many
larger ones in everybodies future.









wrote:
>>So what your talking about is the standard loser's excuse "I could do it
>>if I wanted to, but I just don't want to".
>
>
> Not exactly, for e.g., I don't go skydiving even though I am pretty
> confident I could learn to skydive if I wanted to but I am just not
> interested. Likewise there are lots of people who are not losers and
> who don't want to be pilots.
>
>
>

[Jules]

They said on some educational show, that at any given time there is
approximately 250,000 people aloft in aircraft, the world over.

Jim Logajan wrote:

> Jay Honeck > wrote:
>
>>In short, I thought it would be neat to figure out how many pilots
>>have EVER flown, since 1903. It's easy to get the number of US pilots
>>year-by-year, but (of course) these include duplicates over time.
>>Therefore, I'm stumped.
>>
>>Any ideas how to tabulate this figure?
>
>
> Not a clue about worldwide, but for the U.S. one can make a "reasonable"
> estimate based on FAA stats at this link:
>
> http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/2006/
>
> Table 17 in particular seems to suggest that, excluding student pilot
> certificates, ~25,000 private certificates were issued each year for the
> last 10 years. I'd use that amount as an average and multiply it by ~60
> to get on the order of at least ~1.5 million private pilot certificates
> ever issued in the U.S.
>
> Just my attempt at a swag.

[Jay Honeck]

> I don't feel learning to fly is a big deal. Not many do it, perhaps
> because of the expense, or it just isn't mainstream.
>
> Harder to do, and to me is a bigger deal, yet is very common; get a good
> university education.

It's funny, I feel just the opposite. I found college to be simply a
normal progression after high school, with no real extra effort
required other than more of the same old same old...

Maybe it's got something to do with the age at which you earned your
wings? For me, learning to fly took place while I was working full-
time, in a new house, with a toddler and a newborn at home. Money and
time were extremely tight.

Worse, by age 35 I was out of "school" mode, and getting back into
studying and homework was very difficult for me. Passing my checkride
was a truly great day, and I've always been as proud (or prouder) of
my ticket as I am of my sheepskin.

> I suppose there is a mystique to it, but I never entered a Formula One
> race either. It is an accomplishment but I hope there will be many
> larger ones in everybodies future.

Well, the local newspaper is interviewing Joe tomorrow -- so
apparently *they* think it's a pretty rare achievement, too.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

[Jose]

> It's funny, I feel just the opposite. I found college to be simply a
> normal progression after high school

That's the thing. College is something that's "on the road ahead".
Just keep going. But learning to fly is something you need to make a
special effort to decide to do. That's what sets it apart.

Once you've decided to do it, it's not really all that hard.

Jose
--
You can choose whom to befriend, but you cannot choose whom to love.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

[Maxwell]

"Jay Honeck" > wrote in message
...
>
> Well, the local newspaper is interviewing Joe tomorrow -- so
> apparently *they* think it's a pretty rare achievement, too.
> --
>

Won't that depend on the salary offered? I hope they don't offer him less
than starting pay for a commuter pilot. :)

[Jay Honeck]

> Once you've decided to do it, it's not really all that hard.

I agree, although some people find it insurmountably difficult.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

[Jay Honeck]

> > Well, the local newspaper is interviewing Joe tomorrow -- so
> > apparently *they* think it's a pretty rare achievement, too.
> > --
>
> Won't that depend on the salary offered? I hope they don't offer him less
> than starting pay for a commuter pilot. :)

LOL!

I worked in newspapers for 21 years, and I can vouch for the fact that
the pay there is nothing to write home about...
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

[The Visitor]

Jay Honeck wrote:


> Well, the local newspaper is interviewing Joe tomorrow -- so
> apparently *they* think it's a pretty rare achievement, too.


Well they could do a story here, every there months.

Don't mis-understand. It is an achievement. But the big achievement is,
we can teach anybody to fly; if somebody pays for it. Which is great
because it is a life altering experience.

Learning to fly is so systematized (is that a word?) that anybody can do
it. The real "rarity" is the ability to pay for it. Between you and me,
therein lies the dividing line. When you exclude the financial
considerations, it is something anybody's child could manage. And having
any kind of pilot's license does not make someone better than anybody
else. (My personal bugaboo.)

Where I sit, we have all kinds of children getting their ticket. And
they usually have millionaire parents. They arrive with a parent or in a
taxi. Go through the training in a normal amount of time. Then continue
on with horsey riding and marshal arts or archery. Don't blame the
messenger, it's the world we live in. We have a fantastic training
system. That's the big picture. My training, atpl, turboprop and
straight jet experience has not been hard, it's been fun. The ability to
pay is, at least to me, the achievement. And the cost these days, it is
a rare achievement. I also see people training, and straining at the
finances to keep going. I can't believe how expensive it is now compared
to 35 years ago. And there are no shortage of students of any age. ???

I have probably offended you and I apologize. I have always wanted to
pop into your hotel; I can tell you would prefer I not. Fair enough.

I have kids not appreciating what is being handed to them. (Not to say
yours wasn't.) You should be proud. Joe is a hardworking boy and he did
it! I hope it empowers him, to take on anything that interests him. Not
trying is the only failure. Getting a pilot's license is not the end,
but the beginning.

I have financed three ppl's for 17 year olds. And nobody owes me a
thing. You should be proud, and you are. I am too. I don't have any
children myself. If I did they would be flying along with getting their
drivers license.

Joe. More power to ya! You can take on anything you want.
And I hope you do! It won't make sense right now, but often we,
ourselves, are the only person holding us back. And that has been my big
mistake in life. Fear of failure. Talk with your parents and face your
challenges head on. Yes, hard work is hard, but it brings a great
feeling of security I can't explain here but I hope you come to know.

And Jay, I expect an online link, to the article.....

[Morgans[_2_]]

"The Visitor" <> wrote

> You should be proud. Joe is a hardworking boy and he did it! I hope it
> empowers him, to take on anything that interests him.

A big agreement, and congratulations, but I've got to get on my soap-box,
for a moment.

Tell him to lose the hair growing off his chin, until he can do a real thick
one, all over; not just in a few places.

Young men his age as a whole, do not realize that in trying to look old and
mature by growing facial hair, that a thin growth only reinforces the fact
that they are not able to do a proper beard, and instead of looking older,
they look younger and less mature.

He would look much more mature with a clean chin, in my opinion. (and many
other fuddy duddies)

Some people with a fair complexion and light hair color may never be able to
grow a good beard. Me included. It does not make me, or anyone else, any
less of a man. It means I am more evolved from the cave man! <g> Since I
can't, the best thing is to not try.

Soapbox=off

Congrats again, for you and Joe!
--
Jim in NC

[Jay Honeck]

> Learning to fly is so systematized (is that a word?) that anybody can do
> it. The real "rarity" is the ability to pay for it.

At least around here, the rarity is the ability to stick with it.
Paying for it, as I've pointed out repeatedly, costs no more than a
semester of college, or the price of a late '90s Chevy Lumina.

> Where I sit, we have all kinds of children getting their ticket. And
> they usually have millionaire parents.

That is truly a rarity around here. Of course, there are probably
fewer millionaires in Iowa, but it also seems that kids and parents
are more grounded in reality.

Joe had to work to pay for his flight lessons -- period. Although we
obviously helped and encouraged him, there was no free ride.

> I have probably offended you and I apologize. I have always wanted to
> pop into your hotel; I can tell you would prefer I not. Fair enough.

I'm apparently missing something here, cuz I don't feel offended in
the least. This is Usenet -- if I got offended every time someone
expressed a divergent point of view, I'd be a basket case by now...

> I have financed three ppl's for 17 year olds. And nobody owes me a
> thing.

Outstanding! We need more of that in this world.

> And Jay, I expect an online link, to the article.....

Presuming they actually write it, I'll provide it.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

[Jay Honeck]

> Tell him to lose the hair growing off his chin, until he can do a real thick
> one, all over; not just in a few places.

Couldn't agree more, Jim. I think it looks ridiculous -- but his
girlfriend apparently likes it.

You know the old saying: "You can tell a 17 year old, but you can't
tell him a lot!" Man, is it true!

;-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

[Jim Macklin]

You can learn to fly, even today, for the cost of a good set of golf clubs
and a membership in a modest club.


"Jay Honeck" > wrote in message
...
|> Learning to fly is so systematized (is that a word?) that anybody can do
| > it. The real "rarity" is the ability to pay for it.
|
| At least around here, the rarity is the ability to stick with it.
| Paying for it, as I've pointed out repeatedly, costs no more than a
| semester of college, or the price of a late '90s Chevy Lumina.
|
| > Where I sit, we have all kinds of children getting their ticket. And
| > they usually have millionaire parents.
|
| That is truly a rarity around here. Of course, there are probably
| fewer millionaires in Iowa, but it also seems that kids and parents
| are more grounded in reality.
|
| Joe had to work to pay for his flight lessons -- period. Although we
| obviously helped and encouraged him, there was no free ride.
|
| > I have probably offended you and I apologize. I have always wanted to
| > pop into your hotel; I can tell you would prefer I not. Fair enough.
|
| I'm apparently missing something here, cuz I don't feel offended in
| the least. This is Usenet -- if I got offended every time someone
| expressed a divergent point of view, I'd be a basket case by now...
|
| > I have financed three ppl's for 17 year olds. And nobody owes me a
| > thing.
|
| Outstanding! We need more of that in this world.
|
| > And Jay, I expect an online link, to the article.....
|
| Presuming they actually write it, I'll provide it.
| --
| Jay Honeck
| Iowa City, IA
| Pathfinder N56993
| www.AlexisParkInn.com
| "Your Aviation Destination"

[WJRFlyBoy]

On Tue, 27 Nov 2007 22:19:26 -0800 (PST), Jay Honeck wrote:

>> Tell him to lose the hair growing off his chin, until he can do a real thick
>> one, all over; not just in a few places.
>
> Couldn't agree more, Jim. I think it looks ridiculous -- but his
> girlfriend apparently likes it.

Then you're doomed.

> You know the old saying: "You can tell a 17 year old, but you can't
> tell him a lot!" Man, is it true!
>
> ;-)

Don't forget you're not talking to his hard drive, you"re feeding his
memory stick.
--
Remove numbers for gmail and for God's sake it ain't "gee" either!