BB/WSJ in the news

[Ed Byars]

Congrats to BB (John Cochrane) for the lead article on the Opinion page of
the Wall Street Journal this morning!
It is a great piece but after reading it I still am in doubt as to what to
do financially. I "got out" 2000 Dow points ago (10,000) and am clueless
as to what to do now with my money market accounts.
I had lunch with Rudy Mozer two days ago and he said now is the time to
order a new ASH-30....the euro/dollar ratio will never be better!
Since my wife Betsy forbids a new glider I would have to buy it "on spec"
for resale. What a crazy idea. I have another FL friend who has a new 30
on order...brave sole he (and rich too).

Anyway...it's nice to see our friend BB hit the big time.

Ed Byars

[[email protected]]

On Nov 12, 11:04*am, "Ed Byars" > wrote:

> Anyway...it's nice to see our friend BB hit the big time.

"We all like to think we're smarter than average, but at least half of
us are deluded"

Spoken like an experienced contest pilot!

-T8

[Paul Remde]

Here is a link to the article.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122645226692719401.html

Paul Remde

"Ed Byars" > wrote in message
. ..
> Congrats to BB (John Cochrane) for the lead article on the Opinion page of
> the Wall Street Journal this morning!
> It is a great piece but after reading it I still am in doubt as to what to
> do financially. I "got out" 2000 Dow points ago (10,000) and am clueless
> as to what to do now with my money market accounts.
> I had lunch with Rudy Mozer two days ago and he said now is the time to
> order a new ASH-30....the euro/dollar ratio will never be better!
> Since my wife Betsy forbids a new glider I would have to buy it "on spec"
> for resale. What a crazy idea. I have another FL friend who has a new 30
> on order...brave sole he (and rich too).
>
> Anyway...it's nice to see our friend BB hit the big time.
>
> Ed Byars
>

[TonyV]

wrote:
> "We all like to think we're smarter than average, but at least half of
> us are deluded"

No. That would be the "median" not the "average". Sorry, had to get that
out :-)

Tony V.

[Darryl Ramm]

On Nov 12, 11:55*am, TonyV > wrote:
> wrote:
> > "We all like to think we're smarter than average, but at least half of
> > us are deluded"
>
> No. That would be the "median" not the "average". Sorry, had to get that
> out :-)
>
> Tony V.

But I bet half the people below average don't understand the
difference, and the half above the median already knew.

Darryl

[[email protected]]

On Nov 12, 3:12�pm, Darryl Ramm > wrote:
> On Nov 12, 11:55�am, TonyV > wrote:
>
> > wrote:
> > > "We all like to think we're smarter than average, but at least half of
> > > us are deluded"
>
> > No. That would be the "median" not the "average". Sorry, had to get that
> > out :-)
>
> > Tony V.
>
> But I bet half the people below average don't understand the
> difference, and the half above the median already knew.
>
> Darryl





I was always pretty sure , but now we have it in writing ( in the WSJ
no less ) that BB does NOT fly by the seat of his pants !

A great article John .

Ron (ZA).

[Kemp[_2_]]

On Nov 12, 8:04 am, "Ed Byars" > wrote:

> It is a great piece but after reading it I still am in doubt as to what to
> do financially.

In my opinion, veteran soaring pilots (particularly long distance
pilots) have the potential of being some of the best investors/traders
as most of us know that the weather is bigger than life and most of
us accept that. Same with the market. One of the better articles
recently is this one on trader psychology:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dorn/2008/1110.html

but substitute the words "altitude" for "trading capital" and "money";
substitute "weather" for "markets", etc. The points on handling
stress is also critical to success (as in soaring). This site is one
of several I read that is non-mainstream, which, in my opinion, is
where you have to think in order to be ahead of what the market does.

As for what to do next, well, John does point out in the last
paragraph that a first step is to know exactly your own situation.
The next step of course is deciding what to do given your risk
tolerance (the "task") and step #1 then actually doing it (taking the
tow). IMHO, investing/trading is much tougher than soaring but
perhaps it's me......

Kemp

[noel.wade]

Or, just keep it simple like me: Buy a good used glider instead of
investing... Sure I might be cursing the decision 35 years from now
when I retire; but not having any money tied up in the stock market
has kept me from being stressed out about it this year, AND when you
add in the extra hours I've spent at cloud-base (a blissful state, as
well all know) I think I've come out FAR ahead of the average
investor! :-)

--Noel
(who is soon to have his first Mortgage, and his first large/steady
401k contributions... All good things must end, sadly!)

[Albert Gold[_3_]]

Just remember, if a stock goes down by 50%, in order to regain its
original value it has to back up by 100%. Now that a tough demand.

Al


Ed Byars wrote:
> Congrats to BB (John Cochrane) for the lead article on the Opinion page of
> the Wall Street Journal this morning!
> It is a great piece but after reading it I still am in doubt as to what to
> do financially. I "got out" 2000 Dow points ago (10,000) and am clueless
> as to what to do now with my money market accounts.
> I had lunch with Rudy Mozer two days ago and he said now is the time to
> order a new ASH-30....the euro/dollar ratio will never be better!
> Since my wife Betsy forbids a new glider I would have to buy it "on spec"
> for resale. What a crazy idea. I have another FL friend who has a new 30
> on order...brave sole he (and rich too).
>
> Anyway...it's nice to see our friend BB hit the big time.
>
> Ed Byars
>
>

[AK]

On Nov 12, 11:04*am, "Ed Byars" > wrote:
> Congrats to BB (John Cochrane) for the lead article on the Opinion page of
> the Wall Street Journal this morning!
> It is a great piece but after reading it I still am in doubt as to what to
> do financially. *I "got out" 2000 Dow points ago (10,000) and am clueless
> as to what to do now with my money market accounts.
> I had lunch with Rudy Mozer two days ago and he said now is the time to
> order a new ASH-30....the euro/dollar ratio will never be better!
> Since my wife Betsy forbids a new glider I would have to buy it "on spec"
> for resale. *What a crazy idea. *I have another FL friend who has a new 30
> on order...brave sole he (and rich too).
>
> Anyway...it's nice to see our friend BB hit the big time.
>
> Ed Byars

Think about what the P/E ratio will be at today's stock prices when
earnings go down to near zero. Infinity sounds good!

[Eric Greenwell]

TonyV wrote:
> wrote:
>> "We all like to think we're smarter than average, but at least half of
>> us are deluded"
>
> No. That would be the "median" not the "average". Sorry, had to get that
> out :-)

Would it be reasonable to say that "smarts" has a bell shaped curve, so
the median and average are the same? Or if I'm wrong about that, that
the average is higher than the median, giving us the potential for more
than half of us to be deluded? Either way, I'm sure I'd lose an argument
with John C. about statistics.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA
* Change "netto" to "net" to email me directly

* Updated! "Transponders in Sailplanes" http://tinyurl.com/y739x4
* New Jan '08 - sections on Mode S, TPAS, ADS-B, Flarm, more

* "A Guide to Self-launching Sailplane Operation" at www.motorglider.org

[Jim Beckman[_2_]]

At 19:55 12 November 2008, TonyV wrote:
wrote:
>> "We all like to think we're smarter than average, but at least half
of
>> us are deluded"
>
>No. That would be the "median" not the "average". Sorry, had to get
that
>out :-)

Given that there is a lower limit to intelligence (dumb enough
and you can't remember to keep breathing) but no noticeable
upper limit, I would suggest that most likely *more* than
half of us are dumber than average.

Jim Beckman

[TonyV]

Eric Greenwell wrote:

>> No. That would be the "median" not the "average". Sorry, had to get
>> that out :-)
>
> Would it be reasonable to say that "smarts" has a bell shaped curve, so
> the median and average are the same?

OK, I'll run with this :-). I don't think so (I have no proof). We're
not talking "smarts" here but piloting skill. Most bad pilots "saw the
light" and never made it to license (Lord knows that it wasn't all of
them). So, your curve would not be bell shaped. I could be wrong :-).

Tony V.

[TonyV]

Eric Greenwell wrote:

>> No. That would be the "median" not the "average". Sorry, had to get
>> that out :-)
>
> Would it be reasonable to say that "smarts" has a bell shaped curve, so
> the median and average are the same?

OK, I'll run with this :-). I don't think so (I have no proof). We're
not talking "smarts" here but piloting skill. Most bad pilots "saw the
light" and never made it to license (Lord knows that it wasn't all of
them). So, your curve would not be bell shaped. I could be wrong :-).

Tony V.

[[email protected]]

On Nov 13, 12:15*pm, Jim Beckman > wrote:
> At 19:55 12 November 2008, TonyV wrote:
>
> wrote:
> >> "We all like to think we're smarter than average, but at least half
> of
> >> us are deluded"
>
> >No. That would be the "median" not the "average". Sorry, had to get
> that
> >out :-)
>
> Given that there is a lower limit to intelligence (dumb enough
> and you can't remember to keep breathing) but no noticeable
> upper limit, I would suggest that most likely *more* than
> half of us are dumber than average.
>
> Jim Beckman

Can't believe I'm biting on this...

"Although the term "IQ" is still in common use, the scoring of modern
IQ tests such as the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale is now based on
a projection of the subject's measured rank on the Gaussian bell curve
with a center value (average IQ) of 100, and a standard deviation of
15, although different tests may have different standard deviations."

- Source: Wikipedia - the source of all possibly true facts

....and the link to the bell curve

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f7/IQ_curve.svg

Presumably someone in a persistent vegetative state would be unable to
take the test and would score a 0 - you'd need an equal number at 200
to preserve the symmetry - and you don't meet many of those.

Now back to our original programming already in progress...

....nice article BB! Even in the WSJ using the term "median" will lose
you readership, so we'll overlook the linguistic license.

9B

[Albert Gold[_3_]]

OK, time for my bit of pedantry. Most human attributes are log normally
distributed. It's the logarithm of the attribute not, the attribute
itself, that's described by a bell shaped curve. We can't have negative
heights or IQ's, a circumstance that the log normal distribution, unlike
the normal or Gaussian distribution, doesn't permit. For most purposes,
especially when looking near the mean, the two distributions are very
close. I guess that means that the log of all the children in Lake
Woebegone are above average. :-)

Al

wrote:
> On Nov 13, 12:15 pm, Jim Beckman > wrote:
>
>>At 19:55 12 November 2008, TonyV wrote:
>>
>>
wrote:
>>>
>>>>"We all like to think we're smarter than average, but at least half
>>
>>of
>>
>>>>us are deluded"
>>
>>>No. That would be the "median" not the "average". Sorry, had to get
>>
>>that
>>
>>>out :-)
>>
>>Given that there is a lower limit to intelligence (dumb enough
>>and you can't remember to keep breathing) but no noticeable
>>upper limit, I would suggest that most likely *more* than
>>half of us are dumber than average.
>>
>>Jim Beckman
>
>
> Can't believe I'm biting on this...
>
> "Although the term "IQ" is still in common use, the scoring of modern
> IQ tests such as the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale is now based on
> a projection of the subject's measured rank on the Gaussian bell curve
> with a center value (average IQ) of 100, and a standard deviation of
> 15, although different tests may have different standard deviations."
>
> - Source: Wikipedia - the source of all possibly true facts
>
> ...and the link to the bell curve
>
> http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f7/IQ_curve.svg
>
> Presumably someone in a persistent vegetative state would be unable to
> take the test and would score a 0 - you'd need an equal number at 200
> to preserve the symmetry - and you don't meet many of those.
>
> Now back to our original programming already in progress...
>
> ...nice article BB! Even in the WSJ using the term "median" will lose
> you readership, so we'll overlook the linguistic license.
>
> 9B

[DRN]

On Nov 14, 1:53*am, wrote:
> ...nice article BB! *Even in the WSJ using the term "median" will lose
> you readership, so we'll overlook the linguistic license.

I think you meant "especially in WSJ"...
See ya, Dave

[Bob Kuykendall]

On Nov 14, 1:15*pm, DRN > wrote:

> I think you meant "especially in WSJ"...
> See ya, Dave

Hey, that's the "Daily diary of the American dream" you're talking
about!

[DRN]

On Nov 14, 4:32*pm, Bob Kuykendall > wrote:
> On Nov 14, 1:15*pm, DRN > wrote:
>
> > I think you meant "especially in WSJ"...
> > See ya, Dave
>
> Hey, that's the "Daily diary of the American dream" you're talking
> about!

It looks good in the bottom of the parrot's house.
See ya, Dave

[Brad[_2_]]

On Nov 14, 2:40*pm, DRN > wrote:
> On Nov 14, 4:32*pm, Bob Kuykendall > wrote:
>
> > On Nov 14, 1:15*pm, DRN > wrote:
>
> > > I think you meant "especially in WSJ"...
> > > See ya, Dave
>
> > Hey, that's the "Daily diary of the American dream" you're talking
> > about!
>
> It looks good in the bottom of the parrot's house.
> See ya, Dave

my ferrets have fun with it too............!

Brad, Rocko and Hubert

[[email protected]]

" Anyway...it's nice to see our friend BB hit the big time."

You mean having a column in Soaring doesn't count as big time?