Only the mortality data offers reliable trending and it's lagged 2-3 weeks.


Excel's daily ratio between new and active cases seems useful as well. It has been going down from 35% to 10% as the testing ratios are going up. That seems a reliable indicator that the transmission rate is going down.

In other words, the tinder box with only the candles lit is looking good and trending possible.

If behavioral changes to lower R are more than just a fly swatter, then perhaps minimal risks to R like flying solo later in the summer or Fall.