"Doodybutch" wrote in message et...
Kevin...

There are reasons the market is soft for light twins unless you believe in
magic and think you just came along at a lucky time.

Look at the safety records per hour and per mile of SE vs. ME. Twins auger
in a lot when you lose an engine, especially on takeoff and go-around. When
this happens there are NEVER any survivors. Losing an engine is more than
twice as likely since there are two of them and the fuel system is often
complex and prone to operator error. Fatal accident rates per hour of light
twins is generally higher than singles - about double. This is an ironic
fact and the subject of much hangar and barstool talk. Most twin owners have
developed ways to rationalize this away and most single owners glory in it
but the numbers are there anyway.

Pilots didn't just learn about these safety risks of light twins -
we've known about these for years, as such, they are a minimal factor
in the recent price reductions of twins.

Twin prices are depressed for a number of reasons, but the primary one
is a dip in the overall economy. There are less people (relative to
2-4 years ago) who can afford the acquisition, operation, insurance,
and major maintenance costs.

As mentioned above, maintenance and fuel will suck your wallet dry unless
you're a rich man. When you add up the expenses at year end, you can expect
$300 - $400 per hour for many light twins unless you fly a lot. Twins have
a lot of expensive AD's.

Very true about the high maintenance costs, but your hourly figure is
off by a factor of 2... Unless we're talking about pressurized 7-8
seat twins like the 421 or similar, and I think we can assume Kevin
isn't buying a 421 for his first twin. He is probably looking at an
entry level twin, like a TC, Seneca, B55, or maybe 310. Neglecting
cost of capital - a Seneca II can be owned & operated for $200/hour.

Wrt to the 3xx and 4xx series Cessna twins. There are concerns about
a series of upcoming AD (wing spar) that will be VERY costly. This is
putting pricing pressure on these specific models.

One other thing - many of the light twins that are being fire-sold
right now are trash heaps. If the previous owner cannot afford to
keep them, they probably weren't maintaining them.

Having said that - airplanes are a bit like the stock market or
real-estate market. The airplane economy can be cyclical, and if you
time it right, do a good prebuy, and get lucky - you can get a good
deal.

-Nathan