This is really going off topic, and the debate has been had but...


...

The SR22 is statistically safer than the 20, and both have been doing
better
since they started the factory training.

How is the sample size on this? I suspect that any 20 vs. 22 conjecture is
statistically on shaky ground.


My statement on the 20 vs. 22 number is based on incidents and fatalities
per 100k hours. The fleet of 20's may not have a million hours which seems
to be the least amount acceptable to the statistician types. Those who
refuse to accept the data generally want a different number. The pro Cirrus
crowd thinks you should ignore all the data before a certain number, and
ignore CFIT accidents. The Cessna Beech crowd want an ever growing history.
In other words, to compare to their planes you need 20 years of records and
will need 30 years in another ten, etc. etc.

There are lots of theories, but we
really do not know why they have faired so badly.

My unqualified conjecture is that aircraft performance has not been taken
sufficiently into account in our understanding of risk. The SR-22 delivers
speeds formerly available only to twins and the most complex singles with
the same number of knobs to twiddle as a 172. But a new SR-22 will nearly
double the cruise speed of a middle-aged 172.

I tend to think, again unqualified opinion, that the Cirrus has been
attracting a dangerous type of pilot. That is, someone with less
experience
but a lot of money who sees the high performance only as a benefit and is
lured by an illusion of low complexity.

I'd like to see an analysis of the SR-22 against other types where one
controls for pilot experience. In other words, how do 400-hour Cirrus
pilots
do compared to 400-hour A36 pilots? Give a less-experienced or current
pilot
the choice between flying an SR-22 and a Bonanza and he'll almost
certainly
choose the Cirrus. In fact the risk may be quite comparable.

Also, there's the notion, which I believe very strongly in, that the
parachute creates a false sense of security and entices pilots into trying
things that get them killed in ways the 'chute won't help. As the Lancair
fleet grows we'll see if this holds out, because they offer similar
performance and complexity.


I can't find anything wrong with your statements here, and I tend to agree.
However, the Brothers in Minnesota are still happy to sell an SR22 to anyone
willing to pay for the plane and the training.

Also, I tend to wonder whether speed brakes wouldn't be a great addition
to
the SR-22 that would actually make it safer to fly by making it easier for
the pilot to get rid of speed.


Again, I agree. Unfortunately, the Cirrus owners cry fowl at this heresy
because they say the plane is easy to land. I say its as slick as a Mooney,
and they are a great help in a Mooney.

Cirrus has reacted
reasonably well, with more training. We will likely know more in another
year or so.

Well, they had to do something--you can't sell a plane that no one will
insure and that's where Cirrus looked to be heading.

From what I've read the SR-22 rates seem to be converging towards those of
the 182, which casts some doubt on my performance-vs-complexity theory. Or
not. If this was a decisive factor it would seem straightforward enough to
incorporate it into the training. This would comport with what we've seen
between owner-flown turbine twins and light jets like the CJ1. The jet may
challenge you with a lot more altitude and cruise speed but it also offers
a
lot more tools to manage all that performance. We do know that with proper
training a pilot can operate very high performance aircraft with
relatively
few training hours.


Certainly. I wonder about judgement though. Also, there is something to be
said for having your first "OH S#*T" experience in something that is slower
and more stable (not to mention crash worthy). Though the numbers on the 22
were headed into the green, I have not seen anyone split out the stats to
show that they are doing that well. Better, but not in Cessna territory.

the Diamond's in which the passengers walked away virtually unharmed. I
hear that Lancair has looked at Diamond's success, and even hired away
employees from them to make the 400.

The kind of crashes that people have survived in Katanas are amazing.
Diamond talks a lot about the 20g cage structure and it seems to really
work.

-cwk.