What we need is a very large increase in the volume of student starts
and completions. I think Sport Pilot is the key to realizing this.

Figuring 20-30 hours needed to get someone licensed, you could
realistically have people earning a license in about two weeks ab
initio. I imagine we will see schools in places like Florida or New
Mexico that will offer packages that a busy person could fit into on a
vacation.

Availability of new, manufactured aircraft at significantly lower cost
will make it easier for new pilots to keep flying. This is to my mind
an even bigger issue than student starts. It's awful to have someone
go through the trouble and expense of earning a PPL and then not use
it, but all evidence indicates this happens quite a lot.

More people flying means more demand for airports means more people
acquainted with recreational flying means more good things for
everyone with wings.

Then, of all the people who go Sport Pilot, I'll bet we see a minimum
of 25% upgrading to PPLs within two years. These will be people who
enjoy flying and want to move up to bigger and faster and more capable
aircraft. It will be much easier for someone to start as a Sport
Pilot, enjoy that for a year or two, then step up to 172s or
Cherokees. I suspect in the long run we will see the emergence of a
combined PPL/IR approach, which really makes more sense, since most of
the learning is focused on navigation and communication anyway. Plus
this will really represent a big step up in capabilities for the pilot
and make the effort worthwhile.

Finally, if we can build up a meaningfully larger community of IFR
pilots, we'll see what happens when you get a high-volume, competitive
marketplace. Look at how much boat you get for $150k, often with a ton
of electronics, a lot more moving parts, two large engines, and a
furnished interior. GA aircraft will always be more expensive but
there's a lot of room for economies of scale to improve things. But
first we need more pilots.

Best,
-cwk.