Michael wrote:

Depends on what you mean by well along. In fact, on a day with strong
thermal activity, you can actually detect the static discharges from
thermals. They don't fit the models developed for lightning strikes,
and often a thermal that is close will show up as a strike much
farther away.

Ah ha! This is new to me too.

It takes time for the
difference in potential to grow enough that discharges occur, as I've
understand what I read.

Did I misunderstand?

No, that part is right. But realize that when the activity is strong,
it doesn't take that much time. Basically, by the time there is
enough liquid water for RADAR to see it, there are static discharges
strong enough for spherics.

Hmm. Okay.


[...]

Also, nothing was clustering. There were regions with indicated strikes,
but of no major density. If I had to guess, I'd say that my
understanding about the time it takes for discharges to occur is wrong,
and this is a demonstration of "near t-storms" appearing on the
strikefinder.

Exactly.

So what was I seeing? Static discharges from thermals that could grow into
t-storms?

A spherics device won't keep you dry (since it can't see
non-convective rain) but it will keep you out of severe turbulence.
In fact, I've yet to encounter anything worse than occsional light
turbulence while relying solely on the spherics.

In this case, what are you avoiding? Clusters? Any "strikes"? What's your
threshold for "not that way"?

BTW, when you write "RADAR" in making your comparisons here, are you
referring strictly to ATC RADAR? Or are you including airborn and/or
down/uploaded NEXRAD

- Andrew