"Cockpit Colin" wrote in message
...
I understand what you're saying - and I agree that "the aeroplane doesn't
have a memory" per sec - but what I'm saying is no matter how small the
odds, if you repeat the event often enough, then you're number WILL come
up
eventually.

Well, that also depends on what exactly you're talking about. It's
certainly not necessarily true for most things we think about in aviation.

That is, we speak of accident statistics as though it's a foregone
conclusion that we will all suffer the exact same rate of accidents. But we
don't. Some people are clearly more accident-prone than others. The
statement regarding gear-up accidents "there are those who have, and those
who will" is fun to say, but it's not actually literally true. Some pilots
will never have a gear-up landing, even if they always fly retractable gear
aircraft.

Additionally, for any statistically measurable event, there is *always* some
non-zero probability that the event will never happen. For events that are
already unlikely, the non-zero probability that the event will never happen
can be quite significant.

Aircraft accidents in which a Nomex flight suit would actually produce a
significant difference in the outcome of the accident fall into this
category. They are extremely rare, and so even when one assumes a pilot
flying with great frequency, the non-zero probability that the event will
never happen is quite large.

By "produce a significant difference in the outcome of the accident", I mean
accidents in which there is not only a fire that occurs prior to occupant
exit of the airplane (not a common outcome of accidents in general), but
there is a fire that is escapable by the occupant (most people who die by
fire in an accident would not have had a chance even wearing Nomex...they
were trapped in the aircraft, and they most often die by smoke inhalation
anyway, not from their clothes catching fire).

Anyway, that's a long way of saying that, for the type of event that a Nomex
suit would protect against, it's simply not true that "your number WILL come
up eventually", even assuming you repeat the event some humanly-possible
number of times (say, eight one hour flights a day).

Now, all that said, you also write...


I think we're drifting a bit off course here, which is as much my doing as
anyone elses - I'm not just talking Nomex flying suits - my original post
was written as a result of my frustration of how so many pilots think of
themselves as safe pilots (have you ever met a single one who would define
himself as a dangerous one?) - and yet I'm forever seeing them fly off
into
the blue yonder in jeans and tee shirts - over water - single engine - no
life jackets - no flight plan - or overloaded - or with an aircraft that's
not up to standard. Seems about the only thing they never forget is the
"she'll be right" attitude.

I certainly have no problem with that observation. I'd agree that many
people *completely* neglect "negative outcome" issues, and fail to make even
the most rudimentary preparations. I myself probably fail to prepare with
quite as much thoroughness as you apparently do.

However, the Nomex suit is a good talking point with respect to that. You
wear the suit, because you feel it's a worthwhile way of preparing for a
possible event, even if it's an unlikely event. Many other things are
similar.

I think flying over inhospitable terrain without suitable clothing is dumb,
and I never do it. But how about for a local flight? Some people may feel
that any time you get into the airplane, circumstances out of your control
may take you into inhospitable terrain, and thus you should always be
prepared with warm clothing, possibly a sleeping bag and tent and other
survival equipment as well.

But there's always the issue of cost versus benefit. In the same way that I
look at the Nomex suit and say "the odds of that actually being useful are
so incredibly low, it's a waste of my time and effort to bother with the
Nomex suit...I can spend that time and effort in much more productive,
preparative ways", others may look at other preparations we might both make
and say they are not worth it.

Obviously, I'd disagree with them, but at least I'd understand how they came
to that conclusion.

[...] I don't plan on having an accident each time I drive - and I'm
a careful driver - but I wear my seatbelt anyway.

As well you should. But do you also wear your Nomex suit every time you
drove?

Good post by the way - very impressive communication skills.

Heh...glad you think so. Others are often not so gracious, preferring to
describe my posts as "verbose", or "irrelevant", or [expletive deleted]...


Pete