On 20 Aug 2004 07:37:33 -0700, (Rob
Schneider) wrote:

Even assuming that a personal craft could be built economically, how
would it improve anything? Just picture the normal traffic on a
freeway translated into the air. Hurts to even think about it.

Hand in hand with the developments in smaller "personal" air vehicles
is the development of computer controlled (and extremely automated)
flight control systems that won't just control the individual
aircraft, but act as a management system for ALL of these aircraft in
a given area. People won't fly these things (unless they head out
into the boonies); they'll simply be passengers.

That goes entirely against the grain for almost any driver you can
find. One of the reasons we have so much traffic is the individualism
and feeling of freedom many drivers get from driving their own car and
going where they want when they want.


You may have seen examples on TV of the automation systems being
developed to control vehicles on the highway. These systems use a
bunch of different technologies (radar, magnetic sensors, "signposts"
embedded in the roadway, etc.) to take over the driving responsibility
and allow the computer to guide the vehicle at high speed within
inches of the other vehicles on the roadway.

You do realize that at the Chicago World's Fair back in the 30s they
were predicting those things to be common place within the next two
decades. They even had models of traffic systems. Seven decades
later it's still a dream.


As I understand it, NASA's plan is to extend this type of thing by a
couple of orders of magnitude - into three dimensions (up & down in
addition to left & right and front & back) and with some sort of
artificial intelligence system to guide all the individual planes.
The plane would probably be responsible for keeping itself airborn and
moving at the right speed and in the right direction, but the AI
management system would be telling all the planes where and when to
go. After getting in and telling the computer the destination, the
craft's occupants would simply be along for the ride.

I think this has about as much practicality as the optimism at the
World's Fair.


Part of me thinks this is a developing technology looking for a
problem to solve, and part of me thinks it could be a wonderful cure
for traffic congestion in the urban sprawls. Either way, it is so far
away from what this newsgroup is about we might as well be discussing
submarines.

I'd disagree there.
I think that homebuilding and experimentation will play a big part in
any kind of evolution when it comes to navigation.

OTOH to see the personal flight expanded much beyond today's type is
going to take a very large change in our society, not just aviation.

We have the capability to do these things now. The computer
programming would have to be done, but the automation capability is
there. Of course individual flying is far less efficient with fuel
than the automobile, and can you imagine the effects of a terrorist
interfering with the navigation system.

These craft would have to have the capability of using autonomous AIs
on them that could communicate as a group and to take orders from an
outside source. There are actually such programs underway for deep
sea exploration. I've forgotten the actual name which is one of those
yard and a half long monikers but I did some writing for my cousin for
a grant proposal.

Technologically we'd need a complete new revolution in electronics and
computing for this to become financially feasible on a large scale.

No mater how I look at it, to be widely implemented I think it's as
far off as that traffic system from the World's Fair in Chicago.


If it they actually make it work and the whole thing takes off, a lot
of people will get a good idea of what the early astronauts meant by
"spam in the can."

I don't think the claustrophobic are going to have to worry any time
soon, if ever.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com


IMHO, anyway.

Rob