"Marco Leon" wrote:
Who do you all think will be the first to come out with a new certified
single-engine, six-place composite (non-aluminium) airframe? Given Cirrus'
success, all the manufacturers are undoubtedly thinking about this. Any
bets
on the Beechcraft-Cessna-Piper trio before Cirrus and Diamond?

Don't bet on Beechcraft-Cessna-Piper to make any kind of stab at certifying a
new light SE airplane.

Beechcraft is playing out the Bonanza/Baron string, seeing just how high they
can price them and still sell enough to keep production going. Guys like me
who have always lusted for a Bo' are aging Baby Boomers, there's no one new
coming along that cares enough about the brand to spend $800K on a SE piston
airplane. Raytheon will shut it down when that market fizzles out.

Piper is a walking corpse à la Mooney, perpetually being revived in the
bankruptcy courts. The idea that they could attract enough development
capital for a new design and certification process is pure fantasy.

Cessna would be a very long shot. Enough alternatives to the 172 are coming
along that the natural-progression pipeline to 182s and 206s will dry up.
Cessna will either have to come up with something new or face increasing loss
of market share to modern designs. Oshkosh rumors notwithstanding, there
doesn't seem to be anything serious going on at Cessna WRT a new SE airplane.

These companies have missed the modern light aircraft boat; it sailed away
with Cirrus and Diamond aboard, pulling Lancair behind in an innertube.
--
Dan
C-172RG at BFM