Recently, Dan Foster posted:

A good friend is grieving the sudden loss of another friend from a
plane crash about a week ago. Neither the pilot nor the sole
passenger survived.

With very little information to go on with... I'm wondering what could
have had been the possible factors into such an accident.

[...]
Final radar contact was lost at 0204, when the plane was at 400' AGL.

Radar data indicates that 'the target' [as the NTSB put it] was
descending at an high rate prior to the final radar contact.

My guess is spatial disorientation. When flying over the water at night,
or even during the day on a hazy overcast day, one pretty much has to rely
on instruments. It doesn't take long to get out of whack.

So my questions:

1. Would it have been possible for a pilot to see a destination
airport from about 25 nm out, at night?

Yes, very easily. At night, I have no problem seeing airports with
arriving/departing flights from that distance even from 1,500 ft. Judging
distances can be difficult on a clear night.

I don't have much night flying experience. On the east coast,
it's not easy to see places that far out at night... but
that's mostly due to *all* the lights on the ground!

You may be able to see them, but not discern the airport from the other
lights. The tower lights may be more easy to find.

2. Is it possible the pilot might have seen lights reflecting
off the water and misinterpreted it as runway lights?

Hmmm. I wouldn't think so.

Uncoordinated flight, slowing down, maybe a change in AOA
without benefit of a visible horizon to warn brain? Aka 'a
graveyard spiral'?

That is very possible.

Best regards, and condolences to your friends.

Neil