Just had a thought... could the two pilots who busted the DC restricted
airspace avoid a certificate action by filing an ASRS report? Here's
my thought process on this.

Was the violation inadvertant? Probably so. From the limited reports
that I have seen, they were aware of the restricted zones and they had
a plan to navigate around them. They just were unable or did not
follow their planned route. Did the violation cause an accident? No.
Probably the gotcha will be committing a criminal offense. White House
+ Fighter Jet + People Running Chaotically Through DC = You're S.O.L.
I'm sure that there is some sort of criminal negligence involved,
although I don't specifically know what they would be charged with.

But, could they still keep there licenses?

Of course, the NASA form will only hold water with respect to the FAA.
These guys still have all of the other acronyms to answer to, in
addition to everyone else involved in GA. Personally, I find that
mistake unexcusable. Ultimately, we will all feel the backlash from
this.