Thomas Borchert wrote:
JohnH,

The whole country seems to be slipping back into the dark ages; it really is
bewildering. I would have thought most of the barbaric mindset had died off
by now.


Well, the decline of the Roman empire comes to mind. And the next superpower is
already on the horizon: China.

I wouldn't underestimate China, but I wouldn't overestimate it, either.
I'd put the odds at 1-3 that they undergo a (more or less) violent
revolution of some kind in the next 25 years. It all depends on whether
the Party and the Army can figure out a peaceful way to transition
towards a more liberal form of government. So far they've done quite
well, but the easy part is behind them. The rural backwaters where a
majority of the population still lives are desperately poor and largely
corrupt. The people there hear about the wealth in Shanghai, Beijing,
and Guangzhou and figure they're getting screwed. This is not a stable
equilibrium.

Off-Topically,
-cwk.