Only point was that one would need to know your predictions
for what to do for, say, the past 10-20 years to know
if your 2005 prediction was good or just lucky. Stock
newsletter writers have used 'survivor bias' in market
forecasting for years - trumpet your successful calls
and hide from the rest.

But rather than trying to go back a decade, we can
just start now. For those considering buying gliders
later in 2006, what's your forecast for the $/Euro
rate 12 months from now?


Well, I started about 35 years ago, but who's counting?

For the next 12 months I predict that the Euro will continue its
decline, probably leveling off at a $1.05 to a $1.10. I would
definitely not hedge the Euro, however. I would - and will - keep a
substantial portion of my holdings in the ContraFund (but I also own a
couple of dozen other funds, ContraFund is my largest holding). And, at
this point, I would put the glider on order (if I were in the market
for a new glider).

My recommendation is, if you have a glider on order,
hedge the FX rate, but if you think you can out-guess
the market, you're probably only half right.

9B

I don't out-guess the market; I find fund managers who have a proven
track record of doing that. And I monitor there performance to ensure
that they remain in the top 20-30% of their peers.

Tom