I don't out-guess the market; I find fund managers who have a proven
track record of doing that. And I monitor there performance to ensure
that they remain in the top 20-30% of their peers.

In the business, we call this "chasing past return", an investment
fallacy sort of like setting the MacCready value on the last thermal.
The catch of course is if that they don't stay in the top 20-30% of
peers, you've already lost your money.

I looked up contrafund just for fun

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/Fun...A&Symbol=FCNTX

Looks like they made one good move in not losing as much as the average
2001-2003; other than that they track large cap growth pretty
perfectly. And they charge a hefty 0.92% expense ratio!

John Cochrane
BB