My friend, a non-pilot, lives in the Hills of Lakeway a few hundred
yards from the crash site.

I have read the early NTSB report as I expect you have. Density
altitude was less than 4,000, he had almost 4000 feet of runway and I
think after clearing the trees at the end the land tends to go
downward.

I think the only fuel at Lakeway is 100 Octane low lead. Most of the
time experienced pilots can make reasonable guesses as to what caused
the accident, but I'm puzzled by this one. Two of the 6 pax were
children, car seats were loaded aboad but they just aren't that heavy.
Some pilot observers suggested he was not getting full power.

I know the Ted Smith Aerostar has been said to be unforgiving, but have
no direct experience with it. Interesting too that some people who were
on the golf course claim the pilot tried to avoid them, but I
understand he went in inverted at a steep angle into a retaining wall:
it's likely the a/c was out of control.

The house that had been damaged is on the market for $1.2 million (I
think it was bought on speculation after the accident, repaired,
several $100K of upgrades were added). The house has great golf course
views, but I wonder how a realtor will answer questions if an airplane
takes off over it (it's not too far off the extended centerline). The
VFR SELs I saw last week seemed to turn base to final closer to the
airport than the house's location.

In any event, there hasn't been any final NTSB report issued: I'll keep
watching.