On Sat, 18 Feb 2006 18:25:54 GMT, Matt Whiting wrote:

A Lieberman wrote:
On Sat, 18 Feb 2006 13:56:11 GMT, Jose wrote:


There is no excuse for most pilot error. But there are reasons.


I'd have to disagree with the first sentence. Making a decision based on
facts known at the time of launch can substantially change after the wheels
go up.

An example of one of my errors was before I got my IFR ticket, I decided to
launch on a forecast of broken 4000 foot ceilings and tops at 6000.
Forecast was to improve by the time I got to my destination. I did flight
following at 8000 so I could be VFR over the top and be in the clear smooth
air. You can guess what happened. Forecast was a bust.

Did I make an error on launch. Hardly. VFR conditions predicted. By the
time I got to the destination, field was IFR with 800 foot ceilings. End
result, no biggie, 'fess up to center, went to another field that had VFR.

You absolutely made an error. You launched based only one a weather
forecast (which we all know are inherently inaccurate) and with no good
plan B. What if there had been no VFR weather within your fuel range?
These are exactly the bad pilot decisions that we are talking about.

While I didn't state it in my original post, this forecast was just before
wheels up. I got a full briefing one hour before departure.

Conditions were VFR for the first hour of my flight, VFR overcast for the
remainder of the flight. (ceilings were to be VFR, and I elected over the
top)

So, when going that kind of distance, I don't have a choice but to go on
forecast. So, where is my error? Conditions were VFR.

Does the above make me a bad pilot for getting caught VFR on top. I made a
launch decision based on the best information at hand. If you make a
judgment on the surface, one would think how could a pilot get stuck on
top. Things happen. To make a blanket statement there is no excuse for
most pilot errors is wrong.

Not having a plan B (and even a plan C if the conditions are marginal)
is a sign of a bad pilot.

What's there to plan if I was to expecting to encounter VFR conditions
other then headwind conditions? It was severe clear on departure and the
forecast was for scattered clouds on arrival.

Allen