On Thu, 20 Apr 2006 13:38:12 -0400, "Juan Jimenez"
wrote:


"Doug" wrote in message
roups.com...
There is no limit really. Name something else you can put in a tank and
burn that is less expensive. Alchohol? Biodiesel? Electric? Right now,
all of those are more. There is a pretty good chance it will go back
down, SOME. But I doubt we will ever see it under $2 again.

That's what they were saying in the 70's during the oil embargo... It will
come down.

This is a whole different set of conditions than what we saw in the
70's
..
Yes, the price will cycle through the seasons, but more than likely
the low is going to be at least $2.75 and more likely $3.00 with the
increasing demand. Remember that when inflation is taken into account
we are only paying a few % more than we were back in the early 70's.

*Only* and I emphasize "only", if we reduce the amount we use and keep
it there will prices come down. However it is in the best interests
of both the environmental and industrial groups to see the price go to
$3.50 and stay there. That is where alternative and environmentally
friendly fuels become economically competitive on a large, or nation
wide scale.

IF people would change their driving habits so they use 1/3 less fuel
we wouldn't even need to import the stuff to make gas for cars.
Currently, if I recall correctly, the overall MPG average is about
21. If the average were raised by 7 MPG we'd have reached that goal
and it could be done easily. IF people only used cars and trucks
(that includes pick-ups and SUVs) the size they *need* we'd be there.

*Most* people can cut their driving far more than they say they can.
They can car pool, and not make 5 trips a day into town for the kids
basket ball, base ball, hockey, soccer, dance, gymnastics and what
have you by planning.

BUT people are going to continue to drive monster trucks, SUVs and
Hummers because they want big and powerful even when they don't need
it. Unfortunately most of those driving the status symbols can afford
the higher prices. People are only going to cut back on their driving
where it is convenient. They aren't going to car pool, or set up
scheduling to get the kids to practice unless it is convenient, or
unless they are forced to do so by high prices or availability.

Back in the 70's we ended up with a very good start toward conserving
energy. Smaller cars (mostly imports to begin), car pooling, mass
transit were actually working, but then gas became plentiful and the
price went down and here we are.,

Taking inflation into account, the vast subsidies to industry and I
see gas prices cycling but with an ever increasing average.

I think Canada may be headed in the right direction with the Hemp
approach as it is far more energy efficient than producing alcohol
from corn. It costs considerably less to produce and makes about twice
as much alcohol. Sounds like a winner to me and currently most of my
farm is corn although I just rent it out.

What happens to gas prices if we have another hurricane season like
last year with the gulf and gulf coast getting badly beat up?
I'd bet that sooner or later they are going to have to move the
refineries that are now on the gulf coast to better locations. They
may have to move them just to keep them on the coast.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com


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