"Don Tuite" wrote in message
...
Because I'm interesting in *my* probability of dying in a plane crash,
not anyone elses.

We've been here before. Probability has to do with populations, not
with you as an individual.

It has to do with both. No one would complain (from a mathematical
standpoint) about someone decreasing their risk relative to aviation by
simply not getting in an airplane. So obviously personal choices have an
effect on safety.

To me, the real problem with trying to eliminate the "stupid pilot tricks"
component is that I think it likely that many of the pilots who are killed
doing something someone might consider a "stupid pilot trick" probably if
asked beforehand if they'd ever do something so stupid, would have said
"no". And all it takes is making the mistake once.

Heck, for that matter, some of the mistakes are deadly enough that in all
likelihood, most of the pilots killed by such mistakes did them only once.

Which means you can spend your whole flying career avoiding such mistakes,
without doing a single thing to affect your risk of being killed by one.
Why is that? Because the measured risk isn't of pilots who go around making
those mistakes, but rather is of ALL pilots where eventually some make one
of those mistakes.

In other words, it's a fallacy to remove any stupid pilot tricks from one's
"personal risk assessment". I do very much agree with you that it's a
mistake for someone to believe that their personal risk exposure is less
simply because they strive to avoid those stupid pilot tricks.

Now, all that said, looking at the differences between accidents caused by
stupid pilot tricks and accidents caused by something else should (one
hopes) give each pilot a strong appreciation for the importance of avoiding
those stupid pilot tricks. But that doesn't guarantee they won't make one
of those mistakes. It just means they are more strongly motivated to avoid
them.

Pete