Your probability is actually higher, just =because= you feel
invulnerable. You think that you would =never= make a stupid mistake. Yet
you have posted many stupid mistakes that you have made, some of which you
realized and some of which you still don't.

He didn't say he would =never= make a stupid mistake, what he said is that
he strives to minimize his exposure to them. I've seen pilots drive up to
our local FBO, walk into the termina, get keys, go out to a rental C150, get
in, start up, taxi out (no runup) and do a mid-field departure (this is an
all-inclusive list). And I've seen this several times.

The results of that kind of behaviour is what Jay is able to avoid by taking
the precautions that he does. There's nothing wrong with the question. If
he (and I for that matter) want to see what our "chances" really are, then
I, for one, don't want to be included in the statistical analysis that
includes my impatient FBO customers that don't preflight, run-up or use all
the 4000ft runway. Because in my world, those three things aren't factors.

Does that mean that I won't die from an engine out or fuel starvation from
my own stupidity? No, but it does mean that I won't take-off with the
gustlocks installed or with detectable water in my fuel.

jf