Of the total fatalities (130), there are probably less than 40 that apply to
the sort of flying that you claim to do. So you should be able to multiply
the safety probability by more than 4 (or reduce your risk by a factor of
more than 4.... maybe something closer to 300,000 to 1).

False.

You can't just change the numerator, you must also look at the
denominator - that is, you need to then remove all the non-accident
flights outside the envelope.

Simple example - assume that 10% of the pilots are female. There are
312 accidents, and they happen to be distributed 10% female, 90% male.

If you're female, are you really ten times safer because you can
discount the 90% of male accidents?

Jose
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