"Jose" wrote in message
. com...
Given that I've seen no evidence that pilots on the whole are better at
avoiding crashes in airplanes than they otherwise would statistically be
expected to be...

I have no idea what this means. It sounds a lot like "the average pilot
is no better than average at piloting". Could you clarify?

I can try.

Let's assume for a moment that pilots make for better drivers. Presumably
that happens because they somehow have superior judgment or superior skills
(the two characteristics useful in avoiding accidents). Judgment and skills
generally apply across all of one's activities; this premise is in fact the
basis for the conceit that pilots make better drivers (the thinking
generally goes like this: "it requires special skills to learn to fly, so
the person in possession of those special skills also uses them to be a
better driver").

However, aviation is filled with examples of accidents. As has been
established often enough here, aviation is at least as risky relative to
accidents than driving is. (Of course, due to the nature of the activity
and the equipment, injuries and fatalities occur in a greater percentage of
accidents).

If pilots made for better drivers, then average pilots should have fewer
accidents in airplanes, relatively speaking, than average drivers do in
autos. But they don't. If anything, they wreck planes more often
relatively speaking than drivers wreck autos, but for sure they wreck them
at least as often.

In the areas where pilots do a better job avoiding wrecks (commercial,
business, air transport), one can readily point to regulations that lead to
that. The pilots aren't any better, though they are better trained, they
are just as inclined to have an accident. But the regulations, assuming
they follow them (which they generally do), are what lead to the improved
safety statistics. Not pilot ability.

I think cpw's anecdote sums up my view pretty well. One can argue that
entry into aviation (or med school) is limited to a particular kind of
person, but in reality there's no evidence that the "particular kind of
person" (even if one can point to certain personality traits to lead one to
those activities) has any correlation with better judgment or skills.

I don't know if that helps. I've had a splitting headache since Tuesday and
am having trouble expressing myself in my usual crystal clear, concise
manner.

Pete