On Sat, 15 Jul 2006 12:13:13 -0400, Ron Natalie wrote:

The issue is not that VFR-into-IMC comprises a large number of crashes,
but that VFR-into-IMC operations are more likely to result in a crash (a
fatal one at that) when they do occur. Most of the weather related
fatalities were VFR-into-IMC situations.

While I've no problem believing that VFR into IMC is a dangerous
situation, I've some difficulty believing that it is as likely to cause
crashes as you state. Perhaps I'm just being cynical, but I can imagine
instrument rated pilots doing quite well in the clouds w/o a clearance.

Despite what some news reporters would have the public believe, we know
that the lack of a flight plan doesn't immediately translate into flaming
wreckage falling from the sky.

At least once, I've myself experienced a case where ATC told me someone
"not being worked" was nearby while I myself was in the clouds. It's
possible that that other aircraft was VMC...but not too likely.

And I've read of other encounters here occasionally.

Keep in mind that statistics have no way to count such flights if they've
a successful outcome. So we've no way to know how frequent or infrequent
this is.

- Andrew